Yes agreed....
For clarification here are the two specimens being discussed.....
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/4393/nzdci8.gif
Xerof
Printable View
Yes agreed....
For clarification here are the two specimens being discussed.....
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/4393/nzdci8.gif
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Thanks for the pic.
Just thinking that the yellow pattern probably falls into the CRAB* harmonics catagory.
*The CRAB is a harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2000. This pattern is one of the most precise of all the harmonic patterns. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg.
Regards - arco
Hello Arco/Xerof
i am finding your posting quite challenging and have been using my calculator to work out the crab formation and how it relates to the nzd.its not hard to draw fib levels on metastock,but not so easy when faced with numbers like 2.24,2.168
math has never been my strong point so please correct me if i am wrong but to manually arrive at 1.618 extension of the XA leg, i took X-A times the diference by 1.618 and added that to point A
As follows.6440-.59300=.051 * 1.618=.0825 +.59300
=.67551
so to extrapolate to have a harmonic pattern do you mean that each leg has to be in the right Fib proportion to each other,whether its a Gartley/Butterfly or Crab so in the crab but not the other patterns
the BC projection leg would have to be one of the following numbers * the differnce of BC (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) as per your post Arco and should be close to .67551 area
Cheers
Cadet Roddy
Hi Roddy
In Metastock you can add any Fib numbers without difficulty.
Right click for properties/retracement lines - and then add in value lines you requre.
However remember 2.24 converts to 224, and 3.618 to 361.8, etc
Now you should see the PRZ areas/confluences.
regards - arco
Hi Arco
thanks you for that Arco, will make things a lot easier!
kiwi moving south currently trading .6473
Cheers
Cadet Roddy
Don't fret, it's likely to only be a minor retracement.....under 64 cents would probably change the picture somewhat
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/9274/nzdlw0.gif
Xerof
17/8....6560-6590 could even be possible, but at that point Mr Gann could put up some strong resistance.
Good to see Mr Gann managed to repel the invaders first advance and in doing so handed us circa 140 pips on a plate.
Thankyou once again Mr Gann - keep up the good work.
Your pal arco in QLD [8D]
Heres something a little different,basic theory i believe is price is supposed to remian within outside lines and have a preferance for the median /middle ground.
will be interesting to see if it can hold the .6420
area with Fib just below as well!
http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/6902/noname7bi8.jpg
cheers Cadet roddy
Placed a long trade at .6420 tading off the 15 min chart, thinking it had found support and Andrews Pitchfork had held only to be stopped out very quickly at 6390 something after Cullen comments!
USD seems to be strong across the board today,
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy/Xerof
IMHO Pitchforks can be used selectively, but they should be confirmed using other signals for major benefit.
Now that manky ol' Crab is still giving off its bounty with a max 220 pips.
Are you still holding long XEROF.
Good weekend all
arco in QLD
No -I haven't had any positions in Kiwi for some months Arco. And yes, the Major indeed put up a particulary ferocious defence around that 6560/90 level - the enemy seems to be running for the hills at the moment [B)][B)]
regards
Xerof
Re mentioned recently on the Butterfly/Gartley thread...............
"Looking pretty strong at the mom.....depending on ones stance, an EOD reversal pattern btw 6600-6720 on the daily might be the catlyst for a nice short IMO".
6658 was the high this week and the weekly chart has printed a Harami pattern, with the EOD looking like it might complete a 3 Falling pattern next week.
Watching this one closely now for the possibility of a confirming reversal signal.
regards - arco
Hi Arco
Yes i have been watching this pairing as well and picked up a few pips on a straddle on last weeks annoucement,which never followed through.
also of interest is standard error channel,though i suspect its not a stand alone indicator each time it has hit the upper extreme it has retraced significantly further adding to the likehood of a reversal
it appears this butterfly might be double brooded?
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/3949/noname03oc9.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
I don't personally find the SEC of any use in forex trading - it may be of more use in share trading where volume is available.
My charting tip - keep everything as simple as possible.
regards - arco
Hi All
Worth watching closely now....we are hovering within a potential reversal point IMO.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/092206.gif
regards - arco
hope no one jumped in prematurely.... up 3/4 of a cent today....
I read on the global view forum a few days ago when quite a few were recommending shorting NZD just after the trade deficit figures came out and one of the older wiser posters said 'shorting the kiwi is fraught with difficulty'. I thought at the time that it didnt go down very far after that figure which struck me as being quite bullish
I might give this a go (short ) at 6720 level where we hit the 61.8 fib retracement from 71 ish.
Hi Peat/All
No one should have jumped short yet as there has been no confirmed reversal signal.
The chart I posted shows only the potential reversal zone to be aware of.
I have not entered short yet - still watching for that magic signal.
Regards - arco
Hi Arco,
i welcome any advice, thank you for your tip Yes i will try to keep it simple,
my comment about being double brooded was referring to the red admiral butterfly which can reproduce twice in the one cycle, just a little bit of rhetoric there; so for my future reference is this butterfly still valid after already having one retracement at at 127 ish
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/6633/nonameadc2.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
Yes, I consider the Butterfly still in play. The reversal at 127 turned out to be just a short term profitable part of the normal wave action, but we can now keep our eye open for another nice reversal signal.
There is a Gann calc circa 6720 which could come into play (mentioned a few posts ago).
Regards - arco
the 161.8% target zone is looking very attractive at the moment. Looking for signs........
Xerof
i got a bit carried away with Fib over the weekend and drew up this
http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/1...4092006vt5.jpg
I wanted to show where I was drawing the fib from, for clarity and critique.
the fib time was an extra touch which almost matches the lows... perhaps the next low will be just after that final vertical line
Overhead Gann as mentioned seems to be causing some hesitation
NZ Produces Another Trade Deficit Shocker
26/09/2006
NZPANew Zealand's trade deficit in August almost hit a billion dollars, Statistics New Zealand reported.
The deficit came in at $961 million, well worse than the $780m economists had forecast.
The monthly shortfall pushed the August year deficit up to $6.547 billion, slightly down from $6.735 billion in the July year but again worse than economists' forecasts of $6.4 billion.
i thought we had a trade deficit figure for the quarter a few days ago.
arco - seeing as your online how close are we getting to what you would call a reversal here now? .... already down 50 from the rather perfectly achieved 6720
Hi Peat
Current action appears to be in the process of forming a possible Dark Cloud Cover or even Bearish Eng pattern on the EOD, - either of which would give a powerful signal.
And yes, Mr Gann came up trumps again for top picking/pickers, (as mentioned circa 6720)....so a cheeky short at that has given a nice bonus.
regards - arco
;)
Hi Peat/Arco
Just came across the wire/its all good for the current short!
Comments from RBNZ"s Cullen have taken the legs out from under Kiwi. He said
that the central bank may keep rates on hold through 2008 and that the market
took a harder message than intended from the monetary policy statement. GDP
probably fell in Q2 from Q1, he said. Kiwi has slipped to 0.6610 from 0.6660 on
the comments, carried by Bloomberg. Most provocatively, he says kiwi may fall to
0.40. Tell us what you really feel, Mike. 0.6650 is solid resistance on
rebounds 0.6570/75 is support. Jamie.Coleman@Thomson.com
funny how news that impacts always coincides with Fib/Gann.... ;)
Altho its beneficial to NZ and its what the RBNZ want I'm surprised that the Minister is sticking his beak in re rates. I thought the Bank was independent.
Thanks Roddy
Ah Peat....thats Quantum Interconnectedness.
Physicists and even arco and Major Gann have come to realize that the universe is interconnected in much subtler ways than had once been thought.
The interconnectedness of the parts of the whole allows us to realize our/the oneness with all things.
arco
No fewer than four articles discussing the overvalued NZ$ in the Asian FT.
Micheal's mug on the front page and lead article in the Companies and Markets section.
A lot of marketing going into talking down the dollar on his wee OE.
and now the Danes (jyskebank) have a go - from todays report by Lone Olesen
Bad evidence keeps piling up against the NZD. The latest
surprising rise due to the new rather hawkish stance from the
RNBZ is thereby starting to loose its magic.
Bad trade figures, another historic high reading on the balance of
payment deficit (9.4% of GDP), and furthermore a VERY
aggressive finance minister - Mr. Cullen - constantly trying to
pressure the NZD/USD by verbal intervention, finally made the
yield addicts surrender in the first round.
History does'nt repeat - but it often rhymes - keep that in mind as
the present situation brings memories of last year and not least the
start of 2006 alive anew. A period where NZD after the same
economic hardship, and a just as aggressive Mr. Cullen fell off a
cliff, which took many market participants by surprise.
In the wake of Cullen's latest appearance, where he bluntly
revealed that a NZD/USD around 40.00 wouldn't surprise him at
all, the cross is now steering towards troubled waters. A definite
break/close below 65.50 would open up for a revisit with our first
target at 64. Be aware though that once 64 gives way to the
downside, we might be in for a new levels below the latest bottom
at 59.20.
NZD/USD looks like an accident waiting to happen. Best skip the
presumably attractive yield pick up, as it could come at a much too
costly price.
Hi Arco/All
Have you any analysis Arco on how far the current short on the Kiwi will extend to.
as you will be aware it has fallen through the 127% level,would it be reasonable to assume we could see 100% fib level .6425 if it breaks 6520 which is current uptrend line
i have two shorts in play .6675 and 6592,
I ask the question because i tend to exit trades to early on hourly charts etc instead of letting my profits run!
A good recent example is i went short gbp 18939
and exited with only 39 pips missing a further 200 pips.
cheers cadet roddy
I was thinking yesterday that kiwi would become a sell again at .6635 (it reached .6620). Targets unknown but 30-50 pip trailing stop is one way of approaching it.
Im currently flat tho.
Hi Peat
Waiting for a reversal signal to confirm a possible EW1-2
regards - arco
What do you guys make of this one. Rising wedge on the hourly ready to break?
seems we're all playing it via the AUD huds.... which is going a storm!
Cheers peat.
Re: AUD/NZD, looking pretty good alright. I have a small long on from Wednesday, thanks to you guys and you're informative posts.
From ANZ
NZD/USD May Test US$0.6880 If RBNZ Hikes
NZD/USD entering consolidation phase in preparation for extension into 0.6680-0.6720 zone on next week's expected central bank rate hike, says ANZ Bank; pair last 0.6638 vs yesterday's 0.6624 local close. If RBNZ confirms market expectations by hiking rates, continues with hawkish line adopted at Sept. review, NZD/USD may rise as high as 0.6880. Still, with rate hike already priced in, there's a high risk NZD/USD will return to 0.6400-0.6500 even if RBNZ goes ahead with hike, with market focus turning to Australia. Support pegged at 0.6610 today, topside cap 0.6660.
RBNZ Bollard May Decide To Buy Time - BNZ
RBNZ Governor Bollard may yet decide against a rate hike despite there being "strong case" for one, says Bank of NZ; tips RBNZ to hold fire, on view Bollard may well feel that, compared to signposts outlined in September policy statement, economic data on balance haven't provided enough of an upside surprise to justify hike. Says governor might cite higher-than-expected NZD/USD, falling headline inflation as excuse to buy more time, while simply warning of another hike. Tomorrow's 3Q CPI to be watched carefully, but unless outcome significantly varies from consensus of +0.8% on-quarter, +3.6% on-year, market pricing for hike likely kept at 70% going into Thursday's rate review
Hello all
Here's a Pitchfork chart (cus I know Peat is getting right into them now ;))
Looks good..... ya!!
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd_102506.gif
Sunshine Coast 26 C and very nice.
regards - arco