Originally Posted by
MARKETWINNER
We should see some weakness in both New Zealand and Australian economy in the coming years. Only way to have some growth is allowing their currencies to depreciate further. In addition, speculative hot money is also leaving commodity currencies. My biggest worry is will NZD and AUD go below 0.35 and below 0.45 respectively against USD during the period from 2017/18. We should see gradual rising of interest rate in the USA from 2016 onwards.On top of that I believe in cycles in assets including currency cycle. I became bearish on currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD before others. These currencies went up rapidly against emerging and frontier market currencies as well during last couple of years. They are gradually going to adjust to the correct value.
After NZD, We could see down fall in Auckland housing market during next five years. Chinese slow down also will affect asset prices.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions