Originally Posted by
mistaTea
Not looking good in what sense? The low market value? If you are worried about price movements then definitely do not buy Sky - it is volatile right now.
From an underlying business perspective, nothing really bad has actually happened recently. They held rugby (and had to pay a bit more - but the market knew that would be the case).
They lost NZ cricket but kept all other cricket. So losing NZ cricket in and of itself is unlikely to cause subscription losses.
They did lose Disney - which sucks. But I’m not convinced it will lead to a mass exodus of subscribers. More likely, the consumer will keep Sky if they already have it and subscribe to Disney+ to make sure they have Disney for the kids (assuming CBeebies isn’t a decent enough replacement).
As I say, losing Disney is definitely not great - but I don’t think we should over egg it either.
If you deduct $62M for RugbyPass, the market has valued Sky at $320M. That’s absurd in my view.
Even at a PE of 10, earnings would need to plummet to $32M to justify a market cap like that. I don’t see it (or maybe I don’t want to).
My personal view is that consumers will be looking for good content aggregators again before long. It’s already ridiculous how many different services there are - now Apple TV+ and Disney+ coming into the mix makes it even more so.
If Showtime and HBO cut ties with Sky and came at NZ consumers direct, we would have well and truly entered Nutsville. Our population is small - nowhere near big enough to justify so many seperate services.