Exciting times ahead.
I think there will be lots of demand and scaling will be pretty heavy:(
Exciting times ahead.
I think there will be lots of demand and scaling will be pretty heavy:(
Their insatiable requirement for new capital, ($25m last year with new convertible bond issue), $30m now and conversion of existing bonds next year, another $25m if everyone chooses shares on redemption but only quite mediocre EPS growth is starting to concern this hound, as did the depth of the discount to current SP of this issue and going to the market before the election and having to have it fully underwritten, (I presume at significant cost) at first sniff gives this hound cause to reflect. Also concerning is the way in which a major shareholder exited their shareholding and the way the shares have been in a downtrend for some time. I read an article the other day, sorry haven't got a link and can't remember where I read it but the thrust of it was that used car stocks are very very high. Are more people buying new cars given the widespread proliferation of interest free deals being offered by Heartland through Holden and heavily discounted interest deals through Honda, Mazda and other brands ? Is this undermining the used car sector to some degree ?
The quite serious lack of liquidity in the shares is another area of concern as a bondholder and it is by no means a given that I will convert my bonds to shares at the end of their term next year as whilst a theoretical 5% discounted to VWAP sounds fine, it isn't if there's a woeful lack of liquidity when trying to sell down and that theoretical 5% discount could easily work out to be insufficient.
The low forecasted EPS growth leaves me pondering if this isn't just another mediocre company and certainly not capable of the 25% EPS growth some shareholders have been implying. Whilst headline profit growth looks good, EPS growth is hardly inspiring.
Its a fairly young reconstituted company too...I like to see them get some more runs on the board before repeatedly asking for more shareholder money. Trust is earned, not given, (at least as far as this dog is concerned).
Disc: Cautious and somewhat underwhelmed and unconvinced bondholder.
Beagle said - it is a fairly young reconstituted company
Heartland once was that
TRA at $5 in a year or two once they start delivering on what they say they will do.
The 25% eps growth I have been refering to has been based on "reputable" broker research,which was slightly over 25%.
With the placement this will not now be acheivable,however the capital raise will support a lot of growth,and a bigger free float of shares.The Hugh Green estate selling out, was no surprise to anyone who followed their ongoing family feud saga,and court appearances.
Turners business model is simple and easily rolled out in a fragmented market place.Their brands are well known and reputable.
eps growth will be dependant on either further acquisitions or roll outs.
Until these are announced I can't make an informed guess.However I expect there will be announcements in the not to distant future.
You know Dorcester used to be a two bit finance company,while Turners Auctions were a pretty good small company.
Today Turners Automotive Group is an excellent mid sized company,which is soundly directed,managed and financed,with a proven business model that is scalable.
Some of the placement shares will go to good homes,but the loose ones? I expect I am not alone waiting for them..!!!!
Fair enough Percy. Will give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Might even put my paws up for some under the $3.02 SPP plan. Bonds have been a losing investment for me so far. I hate losses. Share price performance on the market over the next few days will be interesting. I suspect people recently buying at $3.40 will have cause to lick their own wounds.
Winner - Mate, I wouldn't be holding my breath hoping for a 50% gain to $5 on this one over the next two years. Want gains like that ?, you'd be better off SUMwhere else where I'd rate your chances as excellent.
There is a huge difference between buying a fair company at a good price,and buying a good company at a fair price.
TRA is a very good company.They have improved every part of their businesses,property development,vehicle sales,finance,and insurance.
All the tickets they clip, are now very large and are growing steadily.
And the share price will grow too,as the market notes TRA deliver ,which in turn will see TRA's PE expand, much like HBL's did as they put more runs on the board.
Whether the share price is $4.50 or $5 in a couple of years we will have to wait and see.I will be happy with either.