Commodities too under pressure.
Printable View
Non Farm Payrolls tonight. Risk on or off?
A strong number should see equities under pressure, USD stronger.
Will be a key indicator on the FEDs next move.
This school of thought has very bearish outlook and seeing the pattern of like the 1987 crash.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-rates-2023-10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfeDn77MlrQ
On the other hand, the following school of thought has an idea of soft landing.
https://www.ft.com/content/a043b0aa-...3-e3cc74c1d812
tested roughly 4200 twice this week ( never normally get exact numbers) good bounce of this support
unemployment way beter than expected
yields continue to rise
so none of this helped unless you consider the unemployment numbers means a soft landing still in play
lets see what happens . by the way the nasdaq held its support as well which helped the sp500
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ISKbYFaqnk
Our Currency Is ALWAYS Sacrificed When Crisis Hits, Without Exception | Matt Piepenburg
0:00 Inflation and deflation are not zero sum, they're cyclical but the end result to bail out the system which is more important than the currency will be more mouse click money and we could walk through with a calendar and a compass and a map in every scenario in history going from ancient Rome to China to 1990s Yugoslavia to Weimar Germany to Franco Spain to 19 - 20s America to today, whenever a system is at risk and things start to fail it is always the currency that is sacrificed to keep the powers that be in play, always without exception.
Right now surprisingly robust economic growth of 4.9 percent is currently expected for Q3 and inflation remains contained below four percent. That's less than half of where it was a year ago. Well this is great news right? The economy has rebounded, the Fed is taming inflation and we've dodged the risk of a recession. Well not really warns Matthew Piepenberg of Matterhorn Asset Management, the proprietor of Gold Switzerland.com. In fact this is a dangerously wrong narrative that too many are swallowing right now.
2:21 What's your current assessment of the global economy in financial markets?
I think for those of us who spend our time in the markets professionally there's a need, really frankly an obligation to derive the simple from the complex. And now more than ever I'm reminded of Patrick Moynihan who had that famous quote that you know we're all entitled to our own opinions but not our own facts. And there was a great social critic kind of political critic Edward Stotesbury, years ago who said when you're when you're questioning a system or an oligarchy or a financial structure or a political structure and you're looking for fraud or fragrant lies you have to look at what's not being discussed, these sins of omission or you know the denial of certain facts.
3:30 What I see right now at the global macro level is really almost an orchestrated choreographed Truman Show where really obvious facts with mathematical implications that are really beyond debate. Whether that's about debt levels or inflation or recession or currency direction longer term and perhaps worst of all this debate about a hard or a soft landing. When the way I look at it and we can get into this more detail the hard landing is already there the you know the plane has crashed onto the runway. The front tire is rolling down the passengers are screaming from the fuselage. There's nothing soft about the facts that I'm looking at right now empirically. And in those facts are being omitted.
Instead I see from our policy makers left or right, because they're really two stirrups to the same saddle, instead what we're seeing are debates of matters of degree, like matters of degree of inflation, or matters of degree about the next rate hike or cut, or matters of degree about dollarization. But I think we need to keep it simple stupid because the stupid is very simple and in that regard it goes back to the theme we talked about that hasn't changed it's only gotten worse is that you know when you have a debt to GDP that's across the rubicon of a hundred percent. We're now dialing in at 120 plus, you get to the point that Mohamed El-Erian talked about where there are no good scenarios left.
4:53 That's just a fact and then your policy makers are forced to make a choice between saving the currency or saving the system, saving the bond market in particular because the bond market impacts the equity market, it impacts pensions, it impacts financial markets and banks. But the math in history is pretty basic you know from David Hume in 1752 to von Mises at the turn of the century to Thomas Jefferson in the 1830s, to Ernest Hemingway as we talked about debt does destroy nations.
Yeah markets initially sold off on the headline number & then rebounded strongly on the softer wage growth amoung other things. Interesting that a huge amount of the increase in jobs were Government jobs. 79,000!
So mixed signal for the FED, but they are probably more interested in wage growth than anything else.
The choppy nature of the market and separation of some assets from others, such as gold, bitcoin, currencies and oil down was an indication of a divided market on direction for mine.
I was long gold & copper which did well.
Had an order to pick up the Nasdaq on the volatility and missed it by 15pts! Doh!
It will be interesting to see if this is a bounce to sell into or the start of the recovery in equities.
As I said before, one major positive factor is low unemployment rate. Corporate world especially strong companies are coping well, despite having high interest rates, high inflation, and high cost of doing business. There are people that they believe "this time is different". I don’ think so. Chances are there for soft landing, but I am not going to touch any overvalued assets. Not a good period for highly leveraged weak companies.
The US Beveridge Curve looking interesting
These times are different eh