Originally Posted by
mistaTea
For what it's worth - I do think we need to be a little careful here, and make sure we avoid inadvertently falling into the trap of 'Group Think'.
Posters to this forum seem to be in agreement that the current offer is still too low, relative to the value of existing assets (and of course, the potentially large upside in Ironbark and Clipper).
I have been very frustrated with the Northington Report, and I disagree with the notion that you can infer a 5% probability of commercial success that was not stated in the referenced report (SRK). It also is not good enough, in my view, for Northington to not include a liquidation value estimate.
However, the Takeovers Panel do point out that they have a high bar threshold when it comes to misleading content and statements. Though the current ruling did not go in my favour, I do see that this high bar is necessary. Our opinion is that the Northington Report is not good enough, and significantly understates the value of the company.
However, so far as the TO Panel can see anyway...the views expressed by Northington and the IDC are genuinely held and reasonably derived.
In other words, we might not like the methodology they have used, and in our opinion there are better methods that should have been used...however Northington have used 'a methodology' that is not completely bonkers, and they genuinely believe the one they have used provides a fair estimate for the business. And that is where it ends I think, so far as the valuation and subsequent SoA statements go.
Our strong opinion is that the business is worth considerably more, so all we can do it make sure we get enough NO votes to stop the deal going ahead.
Then hopefully that is the end of it and we can all explore Ironbark. Or OGOG can think about it for a bit and come back with a higher offer - and then we assess that on its merits again.