Tryvdh more to the point the price of Awe's shares if it exists in 2years time
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Tryvdh more to the point the price of Awe's shares if it exists in 2years time
Note really. Awe hasn't been a compelling buy in the last 8-12months. Far to much hinges on exploration success.
I'm wondering how much lower AWE can go. You would seem pretty safe dollar cost averaging this one over the next few months I should think.
Or you could wait for the downtrend to end, eh P.
Umop I cant believe that AWE can go any lower, although Phaedrus may disagree with me ;)
I took a punt on Friday and bought 10k more shares and will buy more as we see the price start appreciating more.
Mondays market may give us a hint of where AWE is headed. Brokers have a valuation of $3.00 plus :D
Of course it can go lower. The question is, will it? Answer :- You don't know, neither do I and neither does anyone else.
Now I would disagree with that! AWE is technically weak and in a downtrend - not a good time to buy, regardless of how this particular purchase turns out. Oiler, you obviously do not use TA at all. The blue arrow marks where you last saw an "opportunity to buy more" AWE. Technically, you should not have even been holding any AWE at that time - let alone buying more! I don't know what your trading rules are, but you certainly have broken plenty of mine!
(1) You continued to hold on to AWE when its uptrend had ended and multiple Sell signals had been triggered.
(2) You bought more of a falling stock.
(3) You averaged down.
(4) You added to a losing position.
(5) You tried to pick the bottom instead of waiting for the downtrend to reverse.
(6) You bought (twice) in the absence of any technical Buy signals.
YES! Now that's the way to go! Buy when the shareprice is rising.
Buying downtrending stocks is for mugs.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...sPB/AWE711.gif
Sounds site next prospect for AWE
Australian company AWE is about to drill a well close to the Marlborough Sounds, targeting a prospect that could hold up to 100 million barrels of oil, after drilling three duds in Taranaki.
Environmental group Greenpeace said the plan to drill close to D'Urville Island was "quite alarming" after one of the worst oil spills in history at a BP well in the Gulf of Mexico.
AWE is a 42.5 per cent partner in the highly profitable Tui field off the Taranaki coast, which produced about 4.8 million barrels of oil in the June year.
The Tuatara-1 well is about 10 nautical miles (18 kilometres) west of D'Urville Island and about 45km north-east of Nelson. It will take up to a month to drill, starting within the week.
If the prospect did contain 100 million barrels it would be twice the size of Tui. A barrel of oil is worth about US$76 (NZ$108).
AWE said compared with the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico, the Tuatara prospect was in "much shallower water" and they would drill to much shallower depths under the sea floor, with lower pressures than in the Gulf of Mexico.
AWE had drilled 15 wells in the Taranaki basin and would use the same practices at Tuatara.
"We will do everything in our powers to make sure we don't have any adverse reactions there," AWE corporate development manager Garry Marsden said yesterday.
The Tuatara prospect was being drilled in relatively shallow water, he said, about 30 metres deep and would go down about 2000m. That compared with 100m water depth at Tui and 1500m at the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico.
"It is a quantum difference in terms of pressures and the technical difficulties" in the Gulf of Mexico, Mr Marsden said. The resource consents were also more stringent within 12 miles of the coast than further out to sea and AWE was "happy to adhere to that".
"But we are conscious we are in a very environmentally sensitive area there," he said.
Greenpeace campaigner Simon Boxer said the plan to drill close to the Marlborough Sounds was "quite alarming" in an area known for its tourism, recreational and commercial fishing and aquaculture.
"It is a concern, because this is taking place before [Environment Minister] Nick Smith has put together any new health and safety and regulatory structure" for the oil industry, he said.
The review of practices relating to offshore petroleum and mining activities in New Zealand's exclusive economic zone aims to make sure they are up with international best practice.
"Given the lessons of the Gulf of Mexico are still unknown ... it shows us we know very little about frontier deep water [drilling]," Mr Boxer said. Oil drilling was going ahead when it was unclear if a major oil leak could be stopped.
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AWE is a joint venture partner in three recent wells in Taranaki that have all come up dry, the latest being the much-anticipated Kahu-1. AWE has just reduced its stake in the Tuatara prospect to 65 per cent, with new partners coming on board – Roc Oil (15 per cent) and Carnarvon Petroleum (10 per cent) of Australia and Kea Petroleum (10 per cent), which is listed on the British AIM sharemarket.
AWE was the well operator on the dry Hoki-1 drilled earlier this year at an estimated cost of $31.5m as well as the Tui SW well which also came up dry.
Disc: I dont have any.
awe :( losing half its value while the poo maintains sub 70 is a serious problem. anyone have any idea why?
The main obvious reason would be Tui.
-Problems with one well with work over happening soon (I think).
-3 dry wells so far in the Taranaki basin.
I dont think they have had any other problems anywhere else have they? Rudd Tax...although I thought petroleum companies werent affected by them, ASB Sec placed an uncertainty hit of $170m on their valuation over that.
With 527m shares on issue, AWE had a market cap of 527m*1.49=$785m AUD. This is compared to NZO of around 400m AUD.
It's got to be getting cheap eh? What will be interesting is how prospective the Shale Gas turns out to be....with their cashflows, developing will be no problem if they are commercial.
Does anyone have access to a broker report on AWE with an updated DCF analysis on project by project analysis. Ie Tui, Casino etc individual valuations?
It will also be interesting to see the current book values and NTA assets of AWE. As of 30/06/2009, they had around $1 billion in net assets. Whats the bet they will be trading below net assets?
arent they already trading well below NTA?