no change to interest rates.
Printable View
no change to interest rates.
Morning Peat
Yes, I think the charts have been showing us the picture for some time. Nice fall already towards the blue fork tyne.
Regards - arco - [8D] its very hot already on the SS Coast and only 7.55 am
Bollard Leaves Rates Unchanged
26/10/2006 10:17 AM
NZPA
Home owners, businesses, and unions can breath easier after Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 7.25 percent on Thursday.
Dr Bollard said he could not rule out another rate rise in the current cycle and any easing of policy remained a considerable way off.
"The balance of inflation risks remains skewed to the upside," he said in his regular six-weekly review of the OCR.
With inflation running outside the bank's 1-3 percent target range for five quarters, it was always going to be a tight call whether he hiked.
A slim majority of economists had forecast he would raise the rate, even though the economy has been sluggish for over a year.
However, Wednesday's Consumer Price Index rise of 0.7 percent in the September quarter was lower than anticipated, resulting in the annual rate falling from 4.0 percent to 3.5 percent.
"Since our September Monetary Policy Statement, there has been a significant improvement to the near-term inflation outlook, mainly as a result of the decline in oil prices," Dr Bollard said.
He said the bank expected lower fuel prices, together with the recent rebound in the exchange rate and a change in the make-up of CPI to produce an unusually low December quarter CPI reading.
These were however only temporary factors and, apart from the likely favourable effect on inflation expectations, were not expected to materially affect medium-term inflation.
He said the policy outlook was little changed from September when he changed tack, saying another tightening could be needed, whereas at mid-year he had indicated he was done with the tightening phase.
Dr Bollard said indicators of medium-term inflation pressures remained significant.
Modest economic growth in the second quarter had been in line with the bank's forecasts and there had been a further rebalancing of demand away from the domestic sector and towards exports.
Continued strength in most of New Zealand's international markets and a downward trending exchange rate would support that rebalancing, he said.
However, on the domestic front, the housing market remained resilient supported by net immigration and continued house lending expansion by banks at low interest margins. Dr Bollard expressed concern that falling petrol prices would fuel a pick-up in household spending.
While inflation pressures appeared to be abating, there were some indicators of resources pressures. High capacity utilisation and a tight labour market "continue to signal caution".
Dr Bollard refused to take questions to explain his decision.
The decision not to hike would put downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar, particularly against its counterpart in Australia, where inflation has risen above New Zealand's rate and where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates at least twice more this year.
The New Zealand dollar, at U66.17c shortly before the decision, has risen around 10 percent in the last quarter, surprising currency experts and hurting exporters.
The announcement caused the NZ dollar to fall against its US counterpart to US65.74c immediately afterwards.
Against the Australian dollar the kiwi dropped from A86.85c to A86.42c.
Find this item at:
http://xtramsn.co.nz/businessandmone...481810,00.html
Hello All
Evaluating this cross using the Ichimoku (one glance) technique on the monthly chart.
In the past Tenkan crosses (TX) on the monthly chart have been very reliable. The TX crossed a few months ago, and more recently the action has retraced north to the Kijun (red) which appears to be acting as resistance.
The whole scenario is looking bearish now, and IMO we could see a nice drop in the NZD. One other point to remember is the bearish Head and Shoulders that would form if/once the price drops to the circa 5950.
regards - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_m110706.gif
on a shorter time frame arent we seeing a bullish gartley tho?
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/1...0112006nu7.jpg
Peat
Maybe - but remember Gartleys are notorious for developing on into BF's.
Also the previous chart is a monthly, so fluctuations of a minor degree make very little difference on the greater scale.
We need to check that chart again at the end of the month.
arco
Shorts in play since .6670
See how we go, but possible 5 looks like it may be near the end, so may abc before continuing it's next leg down.
Tight stop and will reset on bounce
Cheers
Slam
damn retail trade[:I]
tempted to see this as a new opportunity to long the AUD/NZD
Hi peat
Yes went long again this morning AUD NZD.
May be premature but around 1500 is the uptrand support
Cheers
Slam
Hi Arco,
i havent seen the ichimoku before,is it very reliable,
do you know where i could download Ichimoku from into metastock 7.2
Are the Tenken crosses moving averages
Have been short kiwi,but defying the odds has traded as high as .6820 this morning,so on the sidelines at present,will be interesting to see if 6720 will now become support or whether the present levels represent opportity to go short again.
Morning Roddy
Ive got MS 7.02 and Ichi is in my indictor list. Let me know if you cant find it and I will send you the MS code. As to reliability, I would say it works better on longer term charts.
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo was developed by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese newspaper writer, writing under the pen name "Ichimoku Sanjin." He developed this charting technique before World War II, and offered it to the public when he published his book in 1969.
Ichimoku translates as "a glance" or "one look." Kinko Hyo translates as "the table of equilibrium" or "balance table." Hence a chart displaying this indicator provides a broad look at the prices in a single view. You should be able to look at the chart and know at a glance whether to buy or sell.
Three key time periods are used to calculate the five individual plots used in the indicator. These times periods are based on the trading conditions at the time the indicator was created: Japan in the 1930's. At the time, a trading week was six days instead of the five days we are used to today. Some traders may wish to alter the time periods to reflect the change in trading days.
9 periods = one and a half weeks (now 7.5 periods. use 7 or 8)
26 periods = one month (now 22 periods)
52 periods = two months (now 44 periods)
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator is composed of the following five plots, in addition to the closing prices.
Tenkan-sen. The standard line. This plot provides signals when paired with the Kijun-sen. The default periods for this plot is 9. The calculation for this plot is (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2. The highest high is the highest high over the last specified number of time periods. By default, this is the highest high of the last 9 periods. The other highest highs and lowest lows are calculated the same way.
Kijun-sen. The turning line. This plot provides signals when paired with the Tenkan-sen. The default periods for this plot is 26. The calculation for this plot is also (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2. However, the values are taken from a 26 periods time frame instead of a 9 periods time frame.
Senkou Span A. The first span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span B. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen)/2.
Senkou Span A. The second span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span A. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2.
Chikou Span. The delayed line. This plot is simply the close plotted the desired number of time periods in the past. The default periods for this plot is 26. In this case, today's close would be plotted 26 days ago.
The Ichimoku indicators are used together as one set of signals. If the signals do not agree, the chart is unreliable. When all three signals are in agreement, the signal is strong.
Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen. A buy signal is generated when the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen. A sell signal is generated when the Tenkan-sen crosses below the Kijun-sen. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen can be used as support and resistance.
Senkou Span A / Senkou Span B. The area between the two Spans is the Kumo, or cloud. A buy signal is generated when the close crosses above the cloud. A sell signal is generated when the close crosses below the cloud. Near the intersections of Span A and Span B, the market has a tendency to become chaotic. The Senkou Spans can also be used as support or resistance. When the close is above the cloud, the Spans act as two levels of support. When the close is below the cloud, the Spans act as two levels of resistance.
Chikou Span / Close. A buy signal is generated when the Chikou Span crosses above the close. A sell signal is generated when the Chikou Span crosses below the close.
regards - arco
theres also some interesting stuff on investopedia on the Ichimoku
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...6/ichimoku.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../04/072104.asp
this bit in partic.
Strong signals - A strong buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A strong sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be above the Kumo.
Normal signals - A normal buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A normal sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be within the Kumo.
Weak signals - A weak buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A weak sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be below the Kumo.
Arco/Peat
thanks yes Arco that would be great if you could send Ichimoku,i have been through indicator lists but its not there!
Thanks Peat, i will check out the links!
cheers roddy
Roddy
You can download it directly from Equis here.
http://www.equis.com/Customer/Resour...cle.aspx?Id=17
regards - arco
USD strengthening accross the board. I think there may be at least a short term peak in the kiwi. Hence went short @ 70.85. The bigger question is the right hand shoulder of a massive H & S now forming? Eitherway major resistance in the whole 70.85 - 71.00 area. I can see this coming back at least 200pips quite quickly - 100 pips so far.
Wow. That was a real quick 200+ pips. It seems a few long positions were quickly being unwound. I had my stop a bit too tight, but still managed a 140 pip gain. Looks like on the short term will come back to at least 69.00 cents - will look to re-enter depending on indicators at that stage.
interesting how Moody seem to disregard our debt and deficit....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10418830
Hmmmm. Another example of how the exception has become the rule. It is so "normal" now for most countries to have large debt and deficits that the "officials" more or less justify that things are at an acceptable level. I wouldn't be suprised that it remains this way until the whole system isn't so "awash" with cash. Of course the longer that goes on for the more pain and less chairs there will be once the music finally stops!
Finally we are getting some movement. Patience has certainly been a virtue with this one. For those who are looking for the Kiwi to fall I reckon .6820 is the key. If that level is clearly broken (breaking the low from early Jan + breaking a 6mth trendline) then it could be all on, quite quickly heading to .6500 - .6600..................On the otherhand if it holds then we could have another go at the .7200 level. Only time will tell!
weekly graph here shows a rather disturbing head and shoulders in the making (but not completed so I'm not allowed to comment right ;) ) but there are definitiely two shoulders perfectly matched at 0.71 around a slightly lopsided head
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9...feb2007xq5.jpg
Am I correct in thinking though, that one should only trade them when they break through the neckline hence this has to fall to 0.60 before we sell it with a target of 0.4.
So all a bit pie in the sky at this stage but something I noticed over the weekend.
Strictly speaking you are proabably right in saying one shouldn't jump until the neckline break has happened.............But yes, doesn't this one (so far) look so tempting and juicy! My theory is if other signals are starting to give notice then take action but with good stops in place.
Kiwi currently appears to be back filling, perhaps back to the 0.69 region - watching & waiting!
Hi guys I think much the same,as if I see a pattern forming and think it is going to test "X",then jump on as long as there are enough pips before "X",then you can set a stop just above or below "X" so if doesn't go through your safe,and if does then your in the money.
To me this is often safer than buying at "X",not a great example but look at my usd/jpy chart I will post in a tick.
Cheers
Miner
Hi all
Been following this H&S for a few months now
I have gone short twice now when over .7 has failed;)
Working out nicely so far
Trailing stop picks up the pips.
Will continue to do so for the next year or so[:0]
Cheers
Slam
NZD/USD - Nearing a Short Term Top?
Tuesday, 20 February 2007 14:07:45 GMT
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
Is NZD/USD ready to reverse? Let’s see how our Trend Reversal Thermometer list stacks up:
Slim chance of Short Term Top in NZD/USD
The NZD/USD has staged an impressive rally over the past week and today’s candle suggests the possibility of a turn. However our picking tops and bottoms thermometer indicates that there is only a slim chance for a reversal. The only technical supports that we have for a reversal are the JPercentile indicator on the daily chart and Elliott Wave formation. Only a weekly basis, the JPercentile indicator still points to potential gains. This is supported by the fact that the currency pair gapped open on Sunday night. There is no significant support and resistance level until 0.7100, which is essentially 100 pips away from here. Risk reversals are right in the middle of the band and NZD/USD volatility which is at 9.40 percent is not conducive for a top. Therefore even though it may be tempting to look for weakness in the NZD/USD here, our thermometer suggests that you wait for a test and failure of the 0.7100 level first.
With the latest talk being a NZD/USD of 80, how many times has the call come out of parity of the NZD/AUD which has never eventuated?
My guess is that the NZD/USD may go up short-term, fail to hit 80 then start its decline...
Ahhhh.
This latest movement is just beautiful! If she breaks down through 67.40 then 66.90 there could be a big capitulation to the downside. Perhaps a suprise "no change" to the OCR on Thursday will do the business. On the other hand this is starting to look oversold so I'm starting to tighten stops a little more now.
I closed out my long USD position at .6794 after a quick run this morning. I probably should have put a stop in place at say .6800 and let it run further, but I am still getting the confidence to rely on a stop order to enable me to step away from the screen while in a trade.
Perhaps my personality is suggesting that i am a 'control freak'?[:p]
Since Jan 5 is NZD drawing out a expanding triangle formation?
Described in John J.Murphys 'Technical Analysis of Financial Markets' as usually ocurring at major tops and representing a market that is out of control and unusually emotional.
Rare and difficult to trade the article below suggest waiting for a doji
see http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...gformation.asp
Hi Peat
Yes, sometimes also called a Megaphone top.
I'm firstly looking at the area 7202-7230 for
signs of possible resistance / reversal.
regards -arco
my fib levels suggested 7197 :)
Tues EOD high of 7203 formed a Shooting Star which could mean the
bulls are running out of steam.
A nice long black today would complete an Evening Star pattern
and give a bearish message.
regards -arco
yes I've shorted from 7176 with stop at 7233
my oanda daily candles are now looking dark cloudish
Well my book says the broadening formation is rare and yet hey, the kiwi had one just over a year ago and look what happened after that! Is history going to repeat itself?
http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/853...megaphovg0.jpg[/URL]
I've also added in my fibonacci 161% and 261% and 423% extensions. These are taken as the extensions of the original wave from 0 to 100 and provide resistance and potential turning points.
The first two (on the left and in the middle of the picture )are extending down.
The last fib on the right shows upward extension from the original wave at daily closes of 5958 to 6252. 161 and 261% extensions are less respected here but so far the 423% has held.
The up and down extensions seem to have a lot in common in terms of resistance levels.
Nice chart Peat
Will history repeat?
Exporters hail Kiwi's fall
08 March 2006
By MARTA STEEMAN
Exporters are cheering the almost US1.5 cent fall in the Kiwi dollar and the prospect of futher declines in the next six months.
The dollar dropped overnight on Monday and yesterday to an 18-month low of US65.12c caused by international investors concerned about the New Zealand economy.
Part of the fall is due to investors expecting the gap between high Kiwi interest rates and those of other countries to lessen in coming months as official interest rates rise in the United States and Japan. "
The US isn't raising rates this time and NZ is......
Unfortunately Bollard and the Bank economists haven't accepted the obvious empirical relationship between relativity of international interest rates and exchange rates. They seem to think that microeconomic activity will change or at least explain the world economy. The only way NZRB interest rate movements will affect inflation in this country is to force a recession. Bollard took a step closer last month. His bag of tricks is dead unless he lowers interest rates.
Hi Peat
Here you will find some interesting info on Broadening Tops from Bulkoski.
http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html
regards -arco
Gidday
Accumulate USD
Regards
Ps. They come in different colour bank notes now :-)
do you have a rationale there Contrarian.
This current situation on the NZD is a good demonstration of the way the fib ext method is suppose to operate and here , even works on a short term view.
Note how each ext beyond 100 i.e to either 161 or 261 extension has always retraced back to its previous level eg 100 or 161. That is the most certain and hence tradeable part of the chart pattern.
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/8...4042007cy9.jpg[/URL]
- Ignore the price box with the high lows etc, that was a random event.
its miners u's innit!
Keep up the analysis, Peat. I am finding it very educational...:)