Originally Posted by
mistaTea
What a ride!
A damn shame Ironbark did not come through, but this is a Big Boys game and we all knew the risk.
Based on my low purchase price I essentially got a crack at Ironbark for free. This is what made the investment play so attractive to me - Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose.
All one can do is make the best and most logical decisions based on the facts before them.
Retrospective analysis along the lines of “I should have sold more earlier” or “Boy am I silly for not taking OGOG up on their SOA!!” are pointless (and weak thinking imho).
If one had done either of those things and then Ironbark came through it would have been even more agonising to think of what could have been.
All you can ever do is assess the information at the time and try to make an informed choice based on your investment philosophy and risk tolerance.
It is the end of the road for me with NZO now. I have long said that, in my view, the only interesting thing about NZO was Ironbark. Clipper isn’t happening (and has a very different risk-reward profile anyway), and the company only has about $50M sitting in the bank that can be invested - something they have failed to do for the last few years.
Could OGOG make an offer for the rest of the shares? Maybe, but I would never hold shares hoping for a takeover (and I somehow doubt OGOG would offer 62c again - a market cap of $102M for a company that has very limited prospects).
I think the “rebuild” from here (if there is one) will be long and painful, and in the meantime I don’t fancy continuing to pay management the obscene sums they get for very little return.
Liquidation may be the best route - but that would probably only generate a few more cents per share compared to where the SP is now.
Maybe NZO will buy a slice of Kupe back from Genesis. But then I don’t think Genesis are going to sell that asset for a bargain, so the return would not be spectacular.
The road ahead is so unclear, with so many ifs and maybes. As such, it no longer meets investment grade as I can no longer say I understand the Business Case.
I regret nothing though, and would do it all again if a similar “Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose” opportunity arose.
Those are my thoughts for what they are worth - good luck to remaining holders.