HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

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Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi

If i recall correctly, the reverse mortgages are relatively very low risk with the average reverse mortgage being a very low balance vs the value of the property.

The main immediate advantage of the Challenger bank acquisition is all those reverse mortgages being written in OZ have had the cost of funding significantly reduced by a couple hundred basis points.

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yes thats all true but HGH have other loan books; car loans, asset finance, livestock finance etc

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Originally Posted by Rawz

yes thats all true but HGH have other loan books; car loans, asset finance, livestock finance etc

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True. Reverse mortgages made up almost 40% of the loan book as of last earnings back in Feb.

The market is what it is but it is interesting that all those selling just now are intent upon crystalising a loss, even if they acquired for the basic $1 during the capital raise, which in turn supposedly had a margin baked in for those who participated.

I can't fathom what has really changed in the relatively short interval since that event occurred and the acquisition transaction settled that would/should drive sentiment in that way. Surely it is just a matter of patience. Is there a clearly better opportunity to deploy capital on the NZX presently and if so pray tell me where.

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Originally Posted by ronaldson

The market is what it is but it is interesting that all those selling just now are intent upon crystalising a loss, even if they acquired for the basic $1 during the capital raise, which in turn supposedly had a margin baked in for those who participated.

I can't fathom what has really changed in the relatively short interval since that event occurred and the acquisition transaction settled that would/should drive sentiment in that way. Surely it is just a matter of patience. Is there a clearly better opportunity to deploy capital on the NZX presently and if so pray tell me where.

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this is the problem with the cap raise it completely sucks demand out of the HGH universe. Everyone has had their feed. So when there are unfortunate sellers that have many reasons to sell its just the basic demand vs supply equation working its self out imo.

There is nothing to do but be patient and hold. Holders can rest easy knowing HGH will one day trade again at 1.2-1.5x book value as sure as the sun will rise in the east and set in the west.

The only better value out there (with strong balance sheets not dealing with debt problems) is probably TWR or 2CC, or if looking over on the ASX, FND :ohmy:

SKl has very low debts and STU is a free hold....lol

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Originally Posted by bull....

$1 history now. covid low test 88c ?

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Starting to look like it?

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Originally Posted by Bikeguy

Starting to look like it?

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not far off .. looks like 96 pennies now

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Originally Posted by winner69

Alokdhir ……..how many years away is a healthy economy …not just marginally improving but say GDP 3%/4% consistently

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2040 according to Luxon today in his pre-Budget speech.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-live-christopher-luxon-to-deliver-pre-budget-speech-in-auckland/EGWYP3ZQPZFVNPPZSQ2TXUFJGE/

Luxon said that in 2040, New Zealanders would have a “more dynamic and productive economy” where New Zealanders returned from overseas, rather than leave; better public services, and a “comprehensive response to climate change, both on track to achieve our ambitious emissions targets, and resilient to the challenges of a more volatile world”.

Was in HGH after I bought during the selldown by George Kerr/PGC all those years ago at between 52c to 82c. George of course sold out to the ChCh 'mafia' for 56c. Was very tasty taking a 6 digit gain years later when HGH traded above $2.00.

I have been closely following HGH again since I sold out at $1.78 (took a marginal 3c hit on the way out on my second foray back into the stock) and have just started buying back.

Have a look at the chart below of the banking stocks (WBC, ANZ, NAB, CBA and HGH) and one can observe that they move in unison overall, reflecting the dynamics at play (economic, interest rates and profitability) in the Australasian banking industry.

HGH was following the pattern until late 2023/early 2024 when it became clear to the market that the Challenger Bank acquisition was going ahead and HGH was going to have to do another CR ($200m was raised in 2022) to fund the acquisition. One can see that while the other banks' share prices started recovering, HGH's sp continued to drop.

Hardly surprising as two $200m CRs ($400m) within 18 months are beyond the appetite of shareholders to absorb.

So we are now in the post CR and post Challenger Bank acquisition trading period. There are the flippers who took up the rights and underwrote the CR at $1.00 who are selling out for a quick trade (good on them) or cutting their loss.

I do not expect the selling to continue for much longer (another week perhaps) as it makes little sense to sell out at under $1.00 although the underwriters' break-even price is more like 97c (3% underwriting fee).

I am calling 96c the bottom and expect HGH's sp to track back towards what the other banks are trading at in the next 12 months. I would be disappointed (and wrong) if the sp does not hit $1.25 by end of 2024.

Now fire away your arrows and throw your rocks. Just remember though that I sold at over $2.00 and then, bailed out at $1.78 in my second foray and am buying back at $1.00 +/-.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/H...oid2VlayJ9fX0-

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Originally Posted by Balance

Was in HGH after I bought during the selldown by George Kerr/PGC all those years ago at between 52c to 82c. George of course sold out to the ChCh 'mafia' for 56c. Was very tasty taking a 6 digit gain years later when HGH traded above $2.00.

I have been closely following HGH again since I sold out at $1.78 (took a marginal 3c hit on the way out on my second foray back into the stock) and have just started buying back.

Have a look at the chart below of the banking stocks (WBC, ANZ, NAB, CBA and HGH) and one can observe that they move in unison overall, reflecting the dynamics at play (economic, interest rates and profitability) in the Australasian banking industry.

HGH was following the pattern until late 2023/early 2024 when it became clear to the market that the Challenger Bank acquisition was going ahead and HGH was going to have to do another CR ($200m was raised in 2022) to fund the acquisition. One can see that while the other banks' share prices started recovering, HGH's sp continued to drop.

Hardly surprising as two $200m CRs ($400m) within 18 months are beyond the appetite of shareholders to absorb.

So we are now in the post CR and post Challenger Bank acquisition trading period. There are the flippers who took up the rights and underwrote the CR at $1.00 who are selling out for a quick trade (good on them) or cutting their loss.

I do not expect the selling to continue for much longer (another week perhaps) as it makes little sense to sell out at under $1.00 although the underwriters' break-even price is more like 97c (3% underwriting fee).

I am calling 96c the bottom and expect HGH's sp to track back towards what the other banks are trading at in the next 12 months. I would be disappointed (and wrong) if the sp does not hit $1.25 by end of 2024.

Now fire away your arrows and throw your rocks. Just remember though that I sold at over $2.00 and then, bailed out at $1.78 in my second foray and am buying back at $1.00 +/-.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/H...oid2VlayJ9fX0-

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No call for projectiles of any description. Thank you for your informative post.