Always right to buy at $2.10, W69.
Takeover by BWX or merger probability increases with sp back to current levels.
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Lucky buyer that pick up @2.06...hopefully not winner that did the down ramping n created fear early this morning..lol
dreadful . those new lows wont be to far away reckon
Am I the only one bearish on TIL? If shorting were allowed I would have opened short positions everything over $2.50.
Brave person to short a stock like TIL which could be subject to corporate activity any day - but hi, that's why there is a market and a shorting facility provided by the likes of Forsyth barr.
BWX now on F17 PER of 26.8X and F18 PER of 23.7X - vs TIL (@$2.23) on F17 PER of 13.2X and F18 PER of 12X.
BWX could takeover TIL on a PER of 16X ($3.00) and still enjoy a huge uplift in EPS - one scenario I assess as likely to happen.
BMX been fine tuning their M&A skills lately ......you would think that Trilogy is still(?) on their short lists
Unless the ex chairman lining up some big global player
Yep 200/210 is complete bottom for the share price - wpouldn't want to miss out on the 300 plus takeover would we
I mentioned this yesterday, curious as to why BWX hasn't even bothered trying... maybe they are waiting for the 3rd AGM in a row TIL provide wishy washy guidance (ie another year away).
Some were convinced in late June that they had got a never to be seen again bargain at the low $2 mark... yet we are here again just 3 months later... maybe another press release about a nice company they have taken over and how wonderful things will be etc will ensure it doesn't go sub $2 (which would make the already terrible chat, even worse).
Lets also hope the next year following the AGM isn't like the last, where the share price proceeded to nearly halve - I don't think the PE can get much lower than 11.8 it is on right now, but I'm not sure how TIL will really go... so there isn't much reason for me to buy it (I have been skeptical of their products - what drives any business - since the good old days when the share price was nudging $5, as many will know) I've always preferred to buy other companies, that (mostly) have double digit growth, with a tangible and favorable outlook trading at the same or less PE than TIL is today.
The hype and optimism on the form these last few days has unfortunately not been lived up to and the share price reaction today confirms this loud and clear - lets hope for the big take over offer by BWX for something exotic like $2.50 or maybe the big $3 - then again, do they want to buy what is fast turning into a Dog? (at least parts of the business sure are!)
"Trilogy said increased costs of rosehip oil, its investment in relaunching its Ecoya brand, and margin compression from a weaker New Zealand dollar had impacted on its first-half profitability, though that has been offset by upside from its acquisition of Lanocorp."
Just wondering , I thought they purchased or invested in a plantation in South America to guarantee supply of Rosehip oil , did this agreement not lock in an advantageous price ?
They don't supply all of the Rosehip oil that Trilogy uses, just a decent percentage of it.
Did anyone go to the AGM?
Today news was not a bad news....they are very conservative...
MKTUPDTE: TIL: Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H18 and FY18 Guidance Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H18 Guidance New Zealand, 28 September 2017- Trilogy International Limited (NZX:TIL) (the Company or TIL) announced today at the AGM, revenue and EBITDA guidance for the half year to 30 September 2017. For the six months ending 30 September 2017, TIL expects revenue to exceed $50million, and EBITDA to exceed $6million. TIL expects full year revenue and EBITDA growth in FY18 to be greater than 10%, subject to the performance of our developing market in China. Consistent with prior years, TIL expects revenue and EBITDA growth to be skewed towards the second half. "FY17 was another remarkable year for the Group, achieving more than $100 million in revenue for the first time. It has provided a good platform for consistent growth in FY18" said Angela Buglass, TIL Chief Executive Officer. "Despite a challenging first half we have sustained market position, set up China CBEC, and we are in a strong position to continue to deliver accelerated growth in the second half". Grant Baker, TIL Chairman, said, "TIL's expected performance in FY18 demonstrates our focus on building scale in our brands, expanding into emerging markets, and the value of our newest acquisition of Lanocorp Ltd. We are on track with executing on our strategic priorities, and are well positioned for a strong second half ".
Yes, I attended the AGM.
The meeting was ok, the CEO and Chair did the usual overview of the different parts of the business. They talked about growth, however the EBITDA forecast for the first halve of the present financial year is $6mil plus. In the PCP it was $7.2mil. So it is more than likely that EBITDA in the first halve is a less than last year. The forecast for the full year is >10% compared with last year. It seems the market is not convinced as the SP went down.