I see that the 3-minute NZDUSD has been in a trading range between 7239 & 7255 since about 14:30 NZT (approx 5.5hrs), testing both levels twice.
Whichever way it breaks, it should have some momentum...
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I see that the 3-minute NZDUSD has been in a trading range between 7239 & 7255 since about 14:30 NZT (approx 5.5hrs), testing both levels twice.
Whichever way it breaks, it should have some momentum...
As an aside to the above comment, using 7255 as the high and the 2-day low of 7186, there is a fib retracement of 23.6% at 7239!
Therefore, it appears that the trading range fits the fib levels based on the current move.
I could post a chart, but not too sure how too...
Steve,re posting charts,http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?T...3&whichpage=40
Cheers
Miner
so.... I will concede the broadening formation has broken out on the upside, as Bulkoski said there was a reasonable chance of it doing. Resistance at just above 72 was found, but overcome. Ah the pain of trading forex.
Hi Peat
Perhaps Mr Gann will assist circa 7324, however
theres always the old Mar 05 top at 7467 that
could act like a magnet.
regards - arco
Thanks Miner!Quote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
Steve,re posting charts,http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?T...3&whichpage=40
Cheers
Miner
I will have a go and see what I can post on here...
Kiwi is looking slightly vunerable.
I opened a short yesterday and closed it this morning for 23 pips. (My auto target of 50 was not quite reached overnight).
Anyway, there may be another opportunity considering yesterdays black EOD candle.
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/3544/kiwiuv5.gif
regards - arco http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
article published y'day before todays rate hike....
http://stuff.co.nz/4078120a1865.html
Hi Peat
Bad Stuff [:0]
......So they might be quite surprised if it reaches 7890,
or even more. Its very likely IMHO.
regards - arco
Hi All,
think kiwi wont go much higher for awhile as resent rate increase was anticipated,shorted from 50 yeste4rday,missed todays chance.
i know d doesnt quite fit the perfect form! cheers roddy
http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/9641/kiwivv6.jpg
Hey Roddy
Thats what I call a 'Drop Leg' Butterfly.
They do appear occasionally. Sometimes they
work - sometimes they don't.............
regards - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
hi Arco
seems like a good name Drop Leg,
describes my trading at times!,as in
sometimes works - somtimes doesnt
regards
roddy
Strong move overnight....
.........onwards and upward towards 7890 perhaps
Good Weekend All - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
What's happened to the dollar in the last few minutes, down a cent against most others.
Sydney, June 11: the RBNZ confirmed that they have intervened saying that current levels of the NZD are "exceptional" and "unjustified". They added that the intervention doesn"t prejudge future direction of monetary policy.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by The Plunger
What's happened to the dollar in the last few minutes, down a cent against most others.
Cheers
Slam
Anyone a contrarian.........maybe try a quick buy
(even if its a dead cat bounce)
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
I'm with you arco
I think the RBNZ will have there work cut out on this one.
Cheers
Slam
Hi All
Can the RBNZ beat down this Butterfly?
.............only time will tell
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_w.gif
regards - arco
Ms Gann says. Bit of a bounce at 7403 perhaps.
Mmmm....another large injection required perhaps......
http://www1.bestgraph.com/gifs/econo...relires-05.gif
Quote:
quote:
New Zealand Dollar declined ignoring RBNZ first intervention in 22 years
The Dollar rallied to a 3 ½ month high against the Swiss franc on Monday, with US 10-year Treasury yields over 5% and investors largely ignoring the New Zealand central bank's first market intervention in 22 years. The NzdUsd posted its largest decline in 15 months after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sold its own currency, but there was only limited impact on carry trades in which investors buy high-yielding currencies like the New Zealand funded by borrowing low-cost currencies such as the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen. The RBNZ intervention to curb the NZD came four days after the central bank surprised markets by raising its key interest rate to 8%, the highest benchmark rate in the industrialized world.
Despite RBNZ intervention, key daily chart support for NZD/USD at 0.7470 held firm, and the RBNZ's inability to make the NZD technically weaker could undermine their credibility. The 'failure' of yesterday's intervention to technically break down the NZD raises the possibility that the RBNZ may intervene again to try and do some more damage.
With no major US economic data on Monday, dealers kept liquid currencies, other than the New Zealand Dollar, in narrow ranges, waiting for the may US retail sales report on Wednesday.
is that the hand of the RBNZ putting money into the Nomura piggybank?
another hit this morning from the RBNZ?
"I'm convinced they've intervened," said Alex Sinton, senior currency dealer at ANZ National from Auckland. "It's now gotten very dangerous for the bank because at this point the impact of this intervention has been less than the last one."
Certainly looks like it afetr that 30 minute red whopper,
but its not gonna work judging by the aftermove.
(That was also a nice 30 min butterfly trade).
http://www.sevenoaksart.co.uk/images/swbut.gif
arco
Theres no stopping this Butterfly......
.....onwards and upwards 7800+++ in sight now.
.........RBNZ just dont have enough money
to have any serious effect IMO.
arco
Touched 78.79, pretty close arco, well done.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
Strong move overnight....
.........onwards and upward towards 7890 perhaps
Good Weekend All - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
Think it may have another few goes at it as well
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Yes thats the first BF target.
Maybe I should start seliing signals :D
regards - arco
I'd buy that for a doller;)(Even a little more)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
....Maybe I should start seliing signals :D
Cheers
Slam
Best tip I can give for a dollar.
http://homepages.cwi.nl/~dik/english...ls/l/lvl-2.gif
Always use a stop ;)
Outlook from Gocurrency
http://www.gocurrency.com/outlook-nzd-usd.htm
Interesting comments from Gocurrency. Now that some more water has gone under the bridge it would be interesting to see what their thoughts are now.
The 40 week rythym doesn't seem to be the current play though. I find time cycles are also hardest to identify. Just when one finds a clear cycle, everyone else seems to pick it too and hence naturally destroy it.
I get the feeling that 0.7880 is about to get blown away. But maybe that is me just projecting my wish as I'm currently long the kiwi!
More pain ahead..............
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=economy
Hi FTG/ARCO
Your long looking pretty good at the moment FTG
Any thoughts on long term batterfly Arco with D at.8050
http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/6968/nzd1tp6.jpg
Hmmm.
I reckon the .8050 might just be a "mid afternoon break" for the kiwi. I'm placing us in a smaller wave 3 at the moment - target 0.8330! -approx Late August/ early September
Scary if I'm right with that one. If so, I would guess it will be more of a story of the USD falling off the shelf than anything.
Hi Roddy
Onwards and upwards it appears
Theres a possible margfly if you take the
start from March 05.
aroc
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate???[xx(]
Viking, just remember that DR Cullen is a DR of history or something like that, not economics or commerce etc...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Viking
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate??? [xx(]
History includes economics tho. My NZ history studies at AKL University were centred on economics
Marx was a historian ;)
Have now tightened up my stops on the long position. Chart is starting to look like a triangle, possibly an ending triangle. If so a thrust in the next few days to your .8050 would make sense Roddy. Followed by a sharp downwards move.
i do think the kiwi is going higher, in some ways cullen's latest rhetoric will in itself add fuel to the fire.it seems theres nearly a degree of panic in his attempts to jaw bone things down and also rbnz's intervention attempt being followed by what looks like a an almost certain hike seems surreal.is it possible bollard may just whack the market with a 50 bps rise this week let it capitulate and then stabilise rather than this slow torture. tough medicine but really he is paying the price for not raising when he should knowing fine well the structural problems in the new zealand economy mean a very average growth rate still equates to an economy running at maximum capacity.