I'd say a $500m hole compared to the $200m they claimed to have 31 March 2010, so minus $300m
Printable View
I'd say a $500m hole compared to the $200m they claimed to have 31 March 2010, so minus $300m
This suggested $750m needed:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10666868
Take it with a grain of salt however as all unsubstantiated.
The interesting bit was this "He (Sandy) said talk of Government involvement in any deal was "an interesting rumour" but there had been no negotiations to that end."
Under continuous disclosure, stating there had been no negotiations would be misleading if proved incorrect. Bill English gave the appropriate comment of "no comment".
Who to believe ? Let me see, first of all do we trust Lachie Mcleod or the Listener journalist, as the main source of information for the listener article is AH, clearly the question becomes who do you prefer to trust AH or Lachie Mcleod, answer, neither.
Today's speculative article in the Herald is clearly of far more interest as the above mentioned matter of $15m is clearly almost completly irrelevant in the context of the circumstances.
I am picking this speculative Herald article will have this blog very active today and some people may even be bold enough to take a new or addittional positon in one or more of the SCF securities. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts today as clearly if there really had been material discussions with the Govt regarding their participation in a recapitalisation, with Sandy's denial that would amount to deliberatly misleading the market and would leave him personally wide open to legal action.
I will await people's personal views on this matter and the market reaction with considerable interest today.
It almost goes without saying the Govt are incredibly motivated to find a solution for SCF, quite how they propose to do this will be very interesting. Maybe they will buy the bad bank at current written down value and inject say $200 million with another party injecting a similar amount of capital ?
What do we make of the article. Hmmm
Chris Lee, as I recall has been quite bullish with SCF so how reliable source is he? I think I should be able to rely on the ongoing disclosure obligations that SCF has so prefer their statements.
Will the Govt bail out SCF? In a sense it could via the Deposit Guarantee scheme. Once this is called on the Govt can do what it likes to recover whatever it pays out to depositors. Alternatively it could bring in the Stat Managers- it has proven it has a bit of an eye on AH and his interests and did this to PSIS. So there are two options there already.
If the Govt was to bail out SCF, what makes it so special. The Govt was steadfast in its refusal to bail out Fisher and Paykel - an iconic NZ brand and innovator; indeed a company that represented what NZ stands for (John Jeys words). It has also refused to bail out other companies harmed by the GFC. So why would it want to bail out a privately held company with lots of related party loans. If it bails out SCF why would it not bail out Hanover, Bridgecorp, Blue Chip et al (in the past) and ALF now? SCF isn't really an iconic national operator like Air NZ nor a national bank like BNZ
If the Govt does bail out SCF, I'm reminded of this advertisement: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDC0q...layer_embedded.
Why would AH trade his company for the dropping of potential fraud charges. Lets face it - its pretty unlikely he'll face any charges and if he does, and is found guilty, the worst he could expect is Home D. Doesn't seem like a fair trade to me.
The good news for SCF is that they have had so many interested equity propositions they have had to take it to a shortlist stage. That suggests a deal is done - its just a matter of which option is better. The market should respond positively to Sandys words.
I think we still need to wait till the end of August - there is still so much speculation and we don't have the accounts. Its only 10 working days to wait - not long now. In the meantime we can rely on Sandy to keep the market appropriately informed.
I'm not so sure I'd bet significant money on that. He's shown himself to have a fair bit of "creative licence" with the truth.Quote:
In the meantime we can rely on Sandy to keep the market appropriately informed. Minimoke
Hey Enumerate,
Not sure if you bought (more) SCFHA at 9c or 10c, but looks like if you liquidate today you could almost double your money (17.5c bids to buy on the board right now).
Perhaps take some profits, and put some of the rest up on offer at 19.9c and see what happens?
I love it when I am already cash positive on a security and still have quite a few left in my hands.
Well done sir!
Alan.