I am looking forward to Bull’s answer.
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you may have mis-understood what i was trying to say
you are correct in what you say about sales and i was agreeing with what you said sort off but suggesting to you meaningful cashflow is not for yrs. You are talking about sales , im talking about cash flow , these are very different things.
anyway to cut to the chase when valuing a retirement village ie the helier which is a immature village the meaningful cashflows will come on the roll-over ie when the first lot of re-sales for this village start occurring , not on original sales ( which have most of the costs to come out off )
Your analysis of sale and profit is good mav but you should take it the next step and do a cashflow valuation ie dcf as this is how they are measured.
OCA have a data analyst employed who im sure has all the data you need to perform this if you want and they are willing to tell you.
Bull ….the view will be that building Helier is a ‘sunk cost’ and a component of the previous years large cash burn
Looking forward Helier sales are all cash in the bank from now …even.leading to positive cash flows maybe
I don’t get it, W69 so if someone can enlighten, it will be appreciated.
Developers who overpaid for land and suffered severe costs overruns on projects in recent times have hit the wall and the banks are also nursing numerous similar distressed projects out there.
Why is OCA so special that it’s not a problem with its portfolio of developments where it has overpaid for land & suffered horrendous cost overruns like Helier?
Ok lets try this...Attachment 14937
2024 2025 2026 52.0 83.1 72% 135.1 78.9 88.3 167.2 79.4 59.3 138.8 77.6 83.3 22% 160.9 90.5 114.6 205.1 107.1 134.9 242.0 129.6 166.3 66% 295.9 169.4 202.9 372.3 186.5 194.3 380.8 38.6 51 12% 89.6 45 45 90 50 50 100 91.0 115.3 206.3 124.4 157.9 282.3 136.5 144.3 280.8 104.7 105.2 209.9 105.1 109.9 214.9 109.4 113.6 223.0 -128.6 -128.7 -257.3 -130.8 -136.1 -266.9 -136.3 -141.7 -278.0 -6.8 0.0 -6.8 -12.5 -14.0 -26.5 -12.5 -21.4 -33.9 -115.5 -80 -195.5 -80 -80 -160 -80 -80 -160 -55 12 -43 6 38 44 17 15 32
That`s the best I can Bull....gonna have to get out your magnifying glass.
So there`s the cash flow I expect ...
Our basic difference is I think...
I see sales as profit AND cashflow.
You see sales as just profit and no cashflow. ( like a standard property developer not using ORA`s)
I`m not sure why you dont see that "cash float " the resident just paid up front is now sitting in OCAs accounts to use as they please. ( either building more units elsewhere or paying debt.) It never has to be paid back while new residents are lining up to take it over on resale.
The ORA set up is the key difference of why RVs will keep making money in a stagnant property market and developers dont.
I have to leave for a week or so shortly so I wont have time to respond further for now.