Dipping on big volume too,but I think maybe just trading in a range,until more positive news.
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Dipping on big volume too,but I think maybe just trading in a range,until more positive news.
Possibly media influenced, in conjunction with a technical trend and re-test of the MA50 following what was a relatively confident SP recovery earlier in the year post the capital raising and dilution.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the Chinese infant formula market is worth over NZD 7.43 billion (2011), of which NZ contributes around NZD 1 billion per annum. They project that this market will double by 2016.
One would hope that the Ministry of Primary Industries and New Zealand Trade and Enterprise would adequately resource the protection of what is a major growth prospect for the sector. At least protect matters at this end of the supply chain. Who knows if China can ever be influenced on this matter or any other ?
There is just absolutely so much up-side potential for ATM in this market, I would not be concerned about short term moves in SP.
While I am/was a long term investor in this one, I am very aware of the huge risks. China is without doubt the biggest growth market for ATMs products and articles like the one PT posted above have potential serious consequences for the industry. I therefore put this stock into the same risk portfolio as where I used to hold DIL a year or so ago. Huge potential uptrend but lots of unknowns.
I am with PT. This was initially a long term investment for me but the silence from the company doesn't give me much confidence. Presently I don't know whether to buy more or dump it !!!
It would be of really great interest to hear from someone with on the ground knowledge of the market place perceptions in China, not something I can assist with having never been there.
Is it possible that ATM with a marketing edge above other non A2 brands may be perceived as the 'best of breed' ?
Is it possible that ATM may even benefit from short term industry safety and quality concerns as one of the top quality and therefore trusted go to brands ?
Thanks, but can you please explain what you mean, I am just a Junior!
Great Thank you!
Before we get all over exuberant do we know what the market cap of this company is at 60 cents and where it needs to go to justify that. Its not as expensive as say XRO granted but its getting up there...
I know its no XRO but... you would really need sales in excess of $387m to justify a 60c share price... so... when is that going to happen and how. That is the question I have for this company. WIll see, am still debating whether to take a nibble :)
I know Moosie.. sorry I was too brief, I was talking about future revenues. Didnt convey that well enough I guess. What I am saying is I find it difficult to envision where ATM is going to get that amount of revenue from in the future. It probably is there,but they are going to have to do a lot of work. Will keep watching and may buy in at some stage. I like their product (A2) and can see the markets emerging, but my fear is they cannot keep up with demand.
Hi all, Chinese government is considering a trade barrier for foreign infant formula. Now they are working on the wine barrier for French Wine products and Chemical products from Germany, for the next stage, it's turn to NZ milk products. Already gave signals on Chinese National TV Channel.
Because the non-Chinese currencies depreciated, it may cause some trade wars to against "dumping" among the big economy countries. Such as current Euro anti-dump plan against Chinese solar products.
I am more happy to see how the marketing promotion is going on after A2 infant products arrivals in Shang Hai. Need to two months to figure out.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10888405 Nice reassurance for A2?. I hope the link works if not just copy and paste it in your browser.
Anyone know how much formula ATM have ordered from Synlait ??
http://ruralnews.co.nz/dairy-news/da...omestic-launch this should answer your question
This will hopefully continue to provide some confidence that the ministry are actively now addressing matters.
It's all up from here.
http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/milk...brands-5466478
ATM has provided guidance that they are “on track to achieve FY13 EBITDA of $11.2M before intercompany charges”. We also know that ATM have stated publically that they anticipate FY16 revenues “to be at about $280M”. This is around 3 times the anticipated FY13 revenues and if you do the math represents average forward revenue growth of about 45% per annum over the next 4 years.
This is recent but not new news, but how must we assess top to bottom line margins.
ATM’s average margin over the last two years has been 6.5% and we should anticipate this to improve further as the company grows and gains further efficiencies. A present margin of 6.5% is not bad with in a low margin industry, Fonterra’s HY13 margin was only 4.9%.
ATM operate in a global market, have a value added product above their competitors, yet contract a good percentage of their production and have entered into difficult to assess joint ventures.
Have any posters a studied expectation of forward ATM margins ?
Fonterra announced that its Anmum brand will start to sell in China this year. Competitiors for A2 one by one.....
Presentation by Geoff Babidge, CEO, to the 7th Global Dairy Congress in Lucerne Switzerland
19-20th June 2013.
Highlights:
AUSTRALIA:
· In Australia, approximately 25% of consumers are dairy sensitive or intolerant
· 718% growth in the Australian market since HY2008
· Significant price premium over other branded milks and, c.150% premium over home brands
UK IRELAND & EUROPE:
· Joint venture with Robert Wiseman Dairies in the United Kingdom and Ireland. RWD is largest UK milk processor
· Launch of a2™ brand fresh milk into the UK from October 2012. Initial listing in 900 outlets nationwide
· Opportunity to expand the product portfolio in other European markets
CHINA:
· First shipment of infant formula product to be on shelf September 2013
http://www.noodls.com/viewNoodl/1909...-presentation-
Check out the Australian revenue growth curve within this presentation. If ATM achieve similar growth in their other markets this could all just take-off.
I’m also encouraged by the 150% price premium which is beginning to satisfy some of my assumptions on what top to bottom line profit margins ATM will ultimately achieve. ie: what the A2 marketing premium is worth over and above their non A2 competitors.
Mac