Originally Posted by
moimoi
Mista,
In my view sometimes one needs to look beyond what the company is saying, particularly if invested in the company.
A week or two ago you expressed surprise that no one had made an offer to take SKY over.
The value of the equity in SKY has fallen from $6 at the start of 2015 to 26 cents today.
Directors, neither past nor present, have been buying and there hasn’t exactly been a flood of folk trying to take the company private in that timeframe. Both are telling imo.
Poster Ogg told us a week ago the $100m bond wasn’t a problem.
IMO In the current environment that bond is quite possibly unable to be refinanced. (At least not in full)
The recent accelerating decline in the share price, (in spite of a reasonably logical view that if folk are quarantined at home for 14 days then you’d have to figure they would watch a bit of telly) coupled with increasing volume, suggesting knowledgeable and informed institutional investors, simply does not bode well.
They can’t leave the Bond refinancing until the end of the year. No board can sit there in December with a $100m debt repayable in March having not done anything about it.
A rights issue, assuming they could even get one away at this depressed level, would effectively mean many shareholders are going to be diluted out of existence. The catastrophic decline in the share price over such a long period (and it’s been one way traffic for a long time) is likely to mean many existing holders wouldn’t contribute funds to a cap raise.
There was a very well regarded poster on here about a decade ago. I periodically review one of his / her posts which is below.
(1)Don't buy stocks that are in a downtrend.
(2) Don't buy without first setting a point at which you will accept that you have made a mistake.
(3) When/if this point is hit, SELL. Immediately. You can always buy back when/if the trend reverses.
(4) Never add to a losing position. Don't average down. EVER.
(5) Be very careful not to get caught up in other peoples enthusiasm for a particular stock.
(6) Meticulous calculations of a stocks "worth" are meaningless if the market disagrees with you.
(7) Remember, if your opinion is at variance with market sentiment, YOU are wrong, not the market!
All the best with your investment.
GLTA.