Originally Posted by
Maverick
I'm seeing friends of mine reaching capitulation, hard core OCA believers, AND acting on it. Its hard to watch but easy to understand.
I have always closely watched and monitored sales , margins, prices , especially as high end apartments are a new product and what OCAs future profits are based on ( as you say , care is not the core driver) . After years of watching these sales to minute detail, learning the patterns from uncountable site visits, this last result has me worried...all metrics are holding up until now very well, except sales ...maybe we are at the oversupply stage??? If that's the case then its time to take the a bleeding nose and dig elsewhere.
But if its not , and turns out we are just in a property sales downturn then the outcome from this binary decision ...to sell or hold... leads to incredibly different outcomes. ( the third option is to BUY but who has any money left to do that?)
I`m not prepared to look past poor sales if they are not justified. Things wont come right if there is oversupply then the ultimate financial outcome will be tough.
However...for me, from everything I look at, I dont not see oversupply nor product issues. From the data , I still see enough demand to carry this industry on its merry way.
I love your positivity Baa baa and appreciate it during these dark days. I cant give you another rep point sorry, you deserve it.
While I do agree with you that's its going to work out just fine ( eventually when interest rates fall and property sales resume even at their current prices ) I completely understand others who want to stop the pain and just go fishing like the good old days before we ever understood what an ORA was.
For us to feel better , we dont need to see the SP rise to $1.20 , we just need it to start going up however slowly instead of down . I personally believe that cant be too faraway given the inevitable fall of interest rates that are certainly going to happen given the seriousness of economic pain now out there.
BTW, your presentient comment on "counterintuitively slowly down production" is just ensuring future demand demand will outstrip supply.