Ouch....$15....
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Ouch....$15....
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I also bought at $15. The technicals looked good at the time. substantial support, downward price action with upward MACD, break above downward trendline. It was poised to break out on the day of AGM, and it did for a bit. The flush down was completely unexpected from a technical standpoint and from a fundamental standpoint we were just a little out from closing out 1H2021, yet they claimed they were well on track to meet their previous guidance.
Considering all that, I don't think $15 was a bad pick.
For a lot of us, holding after that breakdown was the mistake because clearly, in hindsight, something wasn't right.
I sold off after the dead cats bounce and moved on to scrap back the losses elsewhere. It is what it is.
Company still has an impressive bank balance and plenty of runway for growth. I also like the product and the brand but like many others now, I have concerns about the insiders and the board.
There was an interesting point a few pages back with regards to mataura valley milk, and the govt expectations of phasing out coal as an energy source in the coming years.
When drying milk concentrate energy costs (electricity and coal /gas etc) are normally the largest costs after the purchase of the raw product, and staff costs. Depending on how much 'fat' is in your business..
A coal to biomass fuel conversion, not only has a one off cost associated with changes required for the burner arrangement and dust management, but currently is significantly more expensive to operate.. A coal boiler might cost ~4m /year you would be up to 11-12m /year for no actual reduction in CO exiting the boiler stack...
This is probably more of an issue for fonterra with a reliance on coal fired boilers dotted around the countryside, but also a of consideration is do we actually have capacity to make enough wood pellets / chips in consistent supply in the right parts of the country (200t /day per boiler) once demand starts to shoot up?
I also bought at $15ish but am still up slightly from earlier buys. At the end of the day ATM is extremely cheap at the moment (would usually abbreviate that to 'atm' but..) if it continues growing and gaining share in China/Aus daigou. If it doesn't, then it is a bit expensive.
I haven't heard anything that convinces me one way or the other so far, so I am sitting on hands for now.
A few members being a bit snarky, like they know better or like they have never bought a share that has gone down?
A more balanced view of CCC ?
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...+February+2021
I have no doubt, given time, this will easily surpass $15. At which point my overall portfolio returns will be nearer to $200k in the green.
All very well sitting on the sidelines criticising others and suggesting we are all underwater, but as Im sure you know with investing, sometimes you pick winners and sometimes you
dont. It doesn’t mean they don’t eventually become winners with time. My hands aren’t weak enough to sell out when I still believe in my initial reasons for investing.
If only those people who are piling their funds into GME and AMC could understand how to do a fundamental analysis of a business.