a conspiracy theory - biggest volume for mths yesterday someone capitulated and someone brought and now we get a speeding ticket on the downside for a bounce for the buyer and the seller to sell into lol
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a conspiracy theory - biggest volume for mths yesterday someone capitulated and someone brought and now we get a speeding ticket on the downside for a bounce for the buyer and the seller to sell into lol
Not sure .. Are TIL heavily invested into Chile for some of their oils.. ??..
Massive out of control fires over there at present..
Not really tanking - just re-adjusting and being rerated from a growth market darling stock with high multiples to a just a run of the mill stock which lacks any excitment
Trilogy came out with that $19m-$21m ebitda guidance late September when share price was $4.50 odd.
Tanked to $3.80 that day and has been steadily declining since - downward pressure in a low volume stock with selling by informed punters (as Balance put it so nicley)
Guidance stills stands so will be making $20m ebitda. No surprises there and at current price about 8.5 times ebitda. Seems about right
Was $5.00 in mid August 2016, 6 months ago and the 30 day MA is still over $3.00 so that's "tanking" in my book.
EBITDA an overrated yardstick. Even if they make $5.5m this half after last half's $3.5m that $9m after tax and on 72m shares that's eps of only 12.5 cps (PE 20) and an EPS decline from last year.
Turning to the technical's and looking at the chart, you'd be a very brave man to bottom pick here.
If the rumours of heavy discounting of product are true, that may mean they are pushing hard to meet revenue/sales guidance for the current year. With a growth stock, the current year is not what drives the sp, it is the future years, so guidance for FY18 will be what I'm watching
You might like to check your numbers mate. They raised $50 in capital in June last year.
https://www.trilogyproducts.com/medi...ber%202016.pdf
Despite all the fancy talk (corporate speak) of great sales growth and EBITDA growth for the most recent half year EPS after tax was only 5.0 cps for the half compared to 15 cps for the full year last year.
Sales growth and EDITDA growth are one thing but NPAT only grew 10% on an expanded capital base so in the most recent half year EPS after tax was very modest and didn't even match half of last year's result. EPS would have to have been 7.5 cps to even match half of last year so at only 5.0 cps on the weighted average number of shares on issue so I put it to the forum that all this sales and EDBITDA growth means nothing if it can't be translated to EPS after tax growth. Further if anecdotal comments that margins may be coming under pressure are true, this must be a concern for anyone hoping they'll get close to 15 cps this year.
EPS after tax is likely to decline this year from 15 cps last year...remember the Hound called in on here first. I put it to the forum that the reason the SP is tanking is that we're looking at an EPS decline this year so all the fancy sales and EBITDA growth talk means nothing as least as far as FY17 is concerned. (I accept that some investors are thinking further ahead than FY17)
Roger I take it you have not seen the seasonality of the underlying business for both CS CO, Ecoya and to a lesser extent Trilogy sales. To say that EPS is falling is complete nonsense until we see the figures. 15 cps would equate to NPAT of $10.8M assuming they hit the EBITDA guidance of $19-$21M this appears highly unlikely (Note 2H16 they made $11M EBITDA for reference with the forecast suggesting they need to make between $12M-$14M EBITDA in 2H16 to meet guidance).
Of equal interest is the large off market trades 800k yesterday at 2.50 and 500k today at 2.55 who is selling and who is buying
FY2017 EPS Range: $0.146 -- $0.166
You are allowed to expect some growth in future years.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger