Originally Posted by
BlackPeter
Hmm.
It is clear from this analysis that you are quite emotionally involved. I don't want to dispute the facts and issues and certainly not your emotions, but I am not sure, whether this analysis helps other investors to make sound judgement calls about the application of their funds.
It feels a bit like drawing conclusions on Christchurch's future by a detailled analysis of the rubble of the CTV building - if you see what I mean?
Looking at AIR - obviously, the last three years have been a disaster. I don't think however that it is legit to use them as a base for their future fortunes. You put as well a lot of emphasis on the mount Erebus disaster and the Ansett investment. Sure - they used to make mistakes on their journey, but so did others - and some of them do these days quite well.
I think the only things which count for AIR from here on are:
1) do they have (or can they get) the know how, the assets and enough funds to ramp up a successful airline rising out of the rubble?
2) How will the industry and the travel market change after (or with) Covid and with increasing climate change issues and can they adapt to the changes?
I am not sure I found an answer to these quesitons in the analysis.
Personally I think that Warren Buffetts advise not to invest in airlines was good ... I note however that Warren Buffett didn't follow his own sound advise :) ; It is probably like with all other things in life ... the correct answer is always: It depends.