I bought in today averaging around $10.50. I share your sentiment SEC that TPI should be good for a bounce to $13+.
Still cum a 6.7c divy....not much for sure, but better than a kick in the goolies all the same. :)
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I bought in today averaging around $10.50. I share your sentiment SEC that TPI should be good for a bounce to $13+.
Still cum a 6.7c divy....not much for sure, but better than a kick in the goolies all the same. :)
TPI is in a downtrend now.
I wont be going near it unless its back at that $8 mark or a new uptrend resumes
Still a great company tho.
reminds me of ABS. great company , great management. but the market suddenly goes off them, namely because they keep issuing shares to fund growth.
If had to pick a few low risk companies for a pension fund or my baby's college fund i'd probably pick ABS and TPI as you know they'll still be around in 10 yrs and be huge companies by then
people always need to put their kids in daycare and there will always be rubbish !
new technologies wont change those industries.
I used to always have AIA in my hypothetical "pension" fund too - but that's just way overvalued now.
Fair enough Footsie. It will be interesting to see how strong this trend proves to be.
Out of interest, Huntleys currently have TPI as a buy below $11.10.
You see a (short term) downtrend, I see a buying opportunity in a long term uptrend and a strong support/resistance line at $10.
At current prices, TPI is trading at PE08 of 17 and is cheap wrt its peers. Companies in similar industries to TPI include Brambles (PE08 26), Leighton (PE08 23) and Transfield (PE08 22).
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you are right in some respects
its cheap relative to peers
But I recently bought a growth stock on a P/E of 10 then watched in disbelief as it fell to a p/e of 7
If you're horizon is 5 years - go for it
But mine is shorter than that so id rather get my timing right
Footsie - TPI is in a downtrend now.
Downtrend apparently well and truely over Footsie!
TPI up 7.5% to $11.39 on no news. Does anyone know if there were any broker reports / news reports on TPI released today that might account for the strength?
Well the $10 support line held. It should never have got anywhere near $10 this month but for a sell call by GSJustBeWare implying TPI is a victim of the credit crunch and that it may have to renew its finances on unfavourable terms (the call made before the Fed dropped i-rates and the credit market started functioning again).
GSJBW have a poor record on stocks/sectors I follow and I remember fondly their call to sell coal stocks in 2004 which provided a fantastic buying opportunity just before the coalies went ballistic:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...?t=706&page=17
Interesting to note that Peabody was buying up large over the past week - nearly $38M on-market. That's the largest insider buying on-market I can recall for a long time on the ASX. It's confirmation of how badly oversold TPI was over the past few weeks.
I hope I can toast GSJBW for another bad call in the next few weeks. Short term target price $12.50.
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Chairman Peabody has bought around $80M on-market in the past 2 months. TPI has recently rolled over some debt on favourable terms. Commsec makes the comment that rolling over the $2B bridging finance with 'worst case' rates would only reduce 08 eps by 2%. All ringing endorsements of TPI's future. Yet the price still languishes. The price discount cannot last.
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Sooooo tempted to get back in this week at under $10.60, but a portfolio reshuffle was needed, and I dilly dallied a bit too long and missed the opportunity.
Looks like TPI will take an interest in CMA Corp (CMV) which was one of Robbo's picks. For some time, I have thought that TPI might bid for CMV, as they seem like a natural extension of the space that TPI operates in.
IMHO, TPI has to be one of the better buys in the top end of the market.
i dont get the attraction to this company.
other than being significantly below it pre-august peak price, the financial structure doesnt really inspire me. its still trading at 21 PE despite the SP fallback. the growth justifies this rating, provided the historical growth continues in the near term.
just going off the etrade balance sheet:
70% debt and a 5% ROC!
Despite the gearing, ROE is only 10%, down from 27%. what would it be without the gearing!!
given a relatively low payout ratio 0f 25%, i wouldnt be too keen on leaving 75% of company earnings to get 10% p.a.
Net profit margin is average at 8%
sales and profit growth has been quite impressive, no doubt.
i dont think the overall waste management industry is growing at the same rate as this company's sales/profits, so it will be a matter of competitive positioning acquisitions. in any case, waste management isnt a value added service, so id imagine customers would be price sensitive like most outsourced services.
positives: whilst it seems to be capital intensive industry, it will benefit from consolidation/scale. they seem to be quite acquisitive at the mo, which will benefit their competitive position, possibly increasing pricing power to boot!
sound cynical dont i!?!
personal preference; i just like companies with fatter margins, higher ROE, less debt.