Thanks for your answer earlier Sparky. I've picked some more up at these levels. Do we know who would drop out of the NZX50?
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Thanks for your answer earlier Sparky. I've picked some more up at these levels. Do we know who would drop out of the NZX50?
I have got a question for the group. $20mil of new capital was raised at 50cents. On the first day of trading turnover was just under $160mil. Who were the buyers an who were the sellers?
$70 mill was the sell down by the major holders to the brokers
Another $70m (prob close to that amount) rrecorded as the brokers hocked them off
Then a lot of redistribution
Plenty of clipping the ticket on the way through eh .... who has made the easy money (oh sorry there was some risk eh)
Looks like those who complained and moaned about missing out on the 50 cents placement have missed out on buying in at an even more attractive 49 cents.
The stock has turned imo and the weak-bladdered flippers have panicked out at 49 cents and 50 cents.
Institutions are now moving in to massage the sp back to at least 55 cents by year end.
We can't have a loss showing in the book for year end, can we?
Two points:
- Most people were complained that they were offered the shares which was bad from a small share holder perspective - ie. the principle
- maybe if they had sold the shares to existing shareholders (ie. those that actually believe in the company) rather than stag'ers, the shareprice may still be above 60c rather than below 50c!!!
My protest was from a principle basis. Not a shareholder and didn't want to be. But it sets a bad precedent for other company's which I may be a shareholder in (like XRO which did exactly the same!)
Don't disagree with you, CJ.
It irks me too but I have seen too many moaners and groaners over the years who talk a lot but do little.
Existing shareholders should surely welcome the opportunity to pick off the flippers at 49 cents? ATM's sp a year from now is what matters, not this week.
Remember Trust Bank? Same situation with punters moaning about getting bugger all stock at the IPO but when the sp dipped 20% below issue price, they were nowhere to be seen!
Likewise, Contact Energy.
Only if they have the cash to do so.
Hope so. I need the cash to pay half of everything I own to the ex. Relevant to me.
Thanks for the running price commentary Balance - fascinating.
As easy to read as an ABC book.
See all those sellers scurrying away now that the big instos have come out to play?
Milford's take of 17m shares would have given a lot of confidence to other investors and I note with Milford that they usually leave some fuel in the tank to top up.
I can see them buying another 5m shares or so.
You guys are all far too clever for me with this stuff.
I look at things differently. A2 milk is a product that does no harm, but there is no substantiated research to suggest it does any good either. I guess perceived health benefits are enough to sell it. But then again it has to compete against other so called healthy options like soy milk and rice milk. I am impressed with what A2 has done so far , particularly in Australia. But there is no getting away from the fact that this is a one product company with unproven benefits. As an investor, this hits all the red flags for me. I will leave you guys alone now to play your little game of pass the parcel. I would suggest you all think about who is playing the music.
SNOOPY
Coles is playing the music?
Fo those who may be Interested I received a reply today from Geoff Babidge CEO, this is what he wrote:.
Thank you for your enquiry.
A2C has grown substantially, with a c.50% increase in revenues and more than 180% appreciation in share price in the last twelve months.
Following the announcement of the outcomes the strategic review, the launch of a2(tm) brand fresh milk in the UK and the signing of the infant formula agreement with China State Farm in China, your Board determined it was the appropriate time to position the Company for its next phase of growth by changing the Company's listing to the NZX Main Board.
As part of the change in listing, three of the Company's largest shareholders resolved to sell down a percentage of their holdings (totalling 140 million shares), which will increase share liquidity.
This does not represent any dilution to existing shareholders as no new shares have been issued.
The Company's issuance of 40 million new shares (representing c.7% of the total shares on issue) was undertaken to allow the Company to dedicate additional resources to accelerate growth.
Given the size and nature of the equity raising and need for new investors to be added to the Company's share register, an offer made only available to eligible investors (primarily being large institutions) was deemed most appropriate in the circumstances to allow the Company to achieve its objective of increasing share liquidity for the benefit of all shareholders.
We are grateful for your past and continuing support and look forward to accelerating the Company's next phase of growth, which we expect will benefit all shareholders.
Sincerely,
Geoffrey Babidge
Managing Director & CEO
Yep,same reply as me.
As part of the change in listing, three of the Company's largest shareholders resolved to sell down a percentage of their holdings (totalling 140 million shares), which will increase share liquidity.
Sold their shares to increase liquidity? Very altruistic of them,
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/new...-but-not-in-NZ
What you have just written is indicative to me of the unfortunate underlying psychic preference of New Zealanders when dealing with most issues - reactive rather than preventive, ambulance at the bottom of the cliff rather than fence at the top of the cliff.
Examples? Pike River blows up and now, the government and miners are scrambling to prevent future explosions. Finance companies meltdown and the government then introduces regulations. Too little, too late and extremely messy and expensive to deal with the fallout, after the fact. Reserve Bank NZ typically cuts interest rates only after NZ is in recession, not before. Raises interest rates only after an asset bubble is inflating close to explosion.
It is different overseas - they try to deal preventively. The case for consuming A2M is logically compelling - why take the risk of consuming A1 milk when you do not need to?
That is why A2 milk has taken off in Australia and now, in UK.
And this will be particularly the case in Asia which will prove in time to be huge for A2 milk. The Asians spend a fortune on preventive health products and A2 milk hits all the right buttons.
As for being a one product company, CJ is exactly right - Fonterra is one product company then by definition?
Thing is, ATM can branch out into any number of A2 milk derived products but at this stage, let the company optimizes the huge potential first in just plain old shelf milk.
You forgot they also have icecream.
54 cents now.
So those who missed out on the placement could have bought in at 49 cents or 50 cents at worse, and ride the trend now back to 60 cents.
Stop moaning and groaning, and don't miss the A2 for the A1.
Pause at 55 cents as that's a quick 10% for those who got plenty from the placement.
After the stock is absorbed, I would say it will effortlessly move to 60 cents.
Especially if one of the Chinese companies decides to have a play - just like with Comvita.
(And I do not mean Cerebos Gregg)
Brokers busy ringing up those clients who obtained placement stock to take quick 10% profit.
Meanwhile, intos are now paying 55 cents so I suspect we will see 56 cents by tonite.
The numbers are simple - 160m shares placed at 50 cents. Another $10m to take the sp to 60 cents mean the instos show 20% return by year end on most of the 160m shares.
Fonterra has Mainland , Tip Top, Anchor. These are brands that have taken decades to build up. A2 has nothing like this.
When I said A2 was a one product company, I wasn't talking about just being a milk company though. What I meant was the whole thing hangs on the health benefits or not of A2.
CJ, I believe that ATM has enormous potential. If they can get to the stage of clipping the ticket on every cow in the western world , then ATM has the potential to be as big as Fonterra. That is the upside, which is probably bigger than any other company in the NZX50.
The problem I see is that if A2 is proven to offer no health benefits over A1, then the entire reason for A2 existing collapses. A2 milk doesn't taste any different to A1, given the same path through the food processing factory. In fact unless you are a chemist, I don't think it is possible to discern any difference. So if A2 'doesn't work' then A2 cheese, A2 ice cream, A2 liquid milk, A2 baby formula... All of them will go down. The company will be left with being a niche player to the fashionably ignorant. That will be the end of the A2 growth story.
I agree that A2 is unlikely to be proved to be more harmful than A1. So I agree that given the choice, all things being equal, choosing A2 makes sense. The problem is A1 is cheaper. So with milk prices high, then a cost input difference like this can matter, especially to those who purchase milk as an ingredient for further processing.
Good luck to those who invest in A2. On balance my feeling is that you will do well. But for me the potential downside risk is too significant to ignore. Of all the companies in the NZX 50, this would be the one that I would rate as having the highest chance of going bankrupt. That is why I wouldn't invest in ATM, which is not to say that those with a different risk profile to myself shouldn't do it
SNOOPY
Even the leading A2 advocate in your article, Balance, said that the health message from A2 Corporation was for more milk in general to be consumed - with that being A2 - rather than A2 over A1.
The fact that NZers consume A1 milk is not a disaster in the sense that Pike River (your example) was. Consuming A1 milk in moderation for the average NZer will not send them to hospital as you imply. Granted for some A2 may have significant health benefits. But that doesn't justify a government decree that everyone must choose A2 milk. For most people on their normal diets, there are other dietary changes they can make that will lessen their chance of diabetes and heart disease that do not involve changing to A2, and are far more beneficial than simply changing to A2!
SNOOPY
Both A2 and Fonterra have one input, being milk though the outputs are varied from MA2inland cheese to A2nchor butter or TipTop2 icecream.
Agree the key issue for them is if they aren't allowed to scientifically say A2 milk is healthier, then they are just a more expensive version of Fonterra. And if they do get that scientific backing, is there anything stopping Fonterra from splitting out its A2 cows into separate herds for those that actually need the special milk.
It's all about mindset, Snoopy.
I read the David Ross situation and how the Securities Commission chose not to follow up on two alerts by investors, but instead continued to indulge that Aussie sheila Plane Jane (with no substance save as a female under a lesbian-inclined Helen Clark government) flying all over the globe telling everyone what a wonderful regulator she was, and I know that's why an ATM will never find the support it deserves in NZ. It's all talk and no action in NZ.
Another example is Diligent. Took the Americans to pump in serious risk capital and take the company to its real potential.
So excellent move by the company to move overseas and i have no doubts, especially in Asia, that it will prosper.
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2...-the-big-boys/
Interesting blog !
Isn't it always the case when you get impatient something happens and the price takes off
Only in a for quick buck with the play money .... thought it would have moved from 51/52 to closer to 60 quicker than this ..... the plan didn't work out and that was the reason for selling and taking a little profit and waiting for the next bit of fun
Just trading prices with little interest in ATM itself at the present time
I'd hope up as well! I can't imagine there would be too many people willing to sell under 50 cents. Theres no reason I can see for it to go down anyway, sales in Aussie are looking fantastic (biggest selling milk and 19th most popular grocery item in Aus) and the UK sales look pretty promising (based on their marketing campaigns etc). Cracking China will provide quite a boost to sales as well one would imagine.
I must ask is ATM the only supplier of this milk in Aussie,or at least the big major supplier?
This 53 - 54 price is getting boring now! Slowly chipping away at the 1 mil sell order I suppose.
..your'r right there Dej, if it carries on for much longer I'll be going back to Blue Top!!
Maybe it is going to be boring for a while
Somebody mentioned the Bollingers tightening .... saying it signals a breakout .... up or down ..... but when the bollingers tighten for ATM the price doesn't seem to move for months and then wham it does .... most times upwards but like recently downwards
Have patience my friend .... it needs an announcement .... and whether that announcement is good or bad will be signalled prior by the price movements
Yes have patience....remember that is a virtue :):t_up:
Yes its boring....remember that is an emotion :t_down:
yes Bollinger bands are squeezed ( indicating a trend shift ....since its flat lined its can only be a trend change (up or down) not a shift in (de)/acceleration.
Black knat..I too bought in on the sell signals under the reasoning the new equity should only depreciate the price by about 7% from 66/68ish to 62ish. and the top shareholder sell down was not seen as a typical TA negative signal but a positive to increase equity and add share liquidity to trading on entering the main NZX trading board.
So a month down this track and ATM has entered into rigor mortus ...so what has happened ?
Two things come to mind...
1....Mr Market has seen this sell down as smart money exiting.....so apply the old saying...Mr Market is always right until such time it proves itself wrong.....so far Mr Market hasn't proved itself wrong.
2....You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.....Plan A..."lets increase the share liquidity to make available more shares for investors to buy"...Hmmmm..the volume hasn't risen as expected...Hello!!! anyone out there????
The depth shows there are plenty of buy/sell orders there but the players are very fussy and stubborn.
The TA chart has 3 money flow indicators which can pick up any accumulation shares by stealth ....OBV Accum/dist and Twiggs ...Twiggs is the most sensitve and is showing only very slight (if any) interest in accumulation so the deduction is that there isn't much interest in ATM at this moment in time, individual and institutional traders attentions are elsewhere... Even the trading range is too narrow (52 -54) for the quick in and out traders.
When will this situation end....who knows??? Ok, there's a lot of share overhang on this market but this situation doesn't seem to be your typical time dependent "snake digesting a big meal bulge" scenario... I think ATM just needs a jump start to increase buyer activity...It could be tomorrow next month next winter or on the other side of the coin, there could be an "enough is enough" impatient ATM sell down to free up investor capital and invest it elsewhere on the rising bull market.
....Watch for TA buy/sell signals
Disc: have ATM shares.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...ps18a3cc24.png
Thanks Hoop,
Now that is the TA covered. A possible catalyst for movement is the half year results in Feb.
The full years results have analysts forecasting
Revenue 73,4 million
EBITDA 5.76 million
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-CORP-LTD...22/financials/
To get the next leg up in price, I think we need to see results that show that the forecasts will be exceeded for the full year.
DISC: Do not hold
A good catalyst for a price increase will be ATM making the NZX50 when DIL delists :p
Sellers at reasonable volume at 52 cents now. Will be very interesting to see how this one plays out.
......just gonna keep driftng south I think till some good news is released. I bailed at 53 and pleased I did (for now).
I'm gonna sit tight for now as I don't reckon it will get below 50 cents. I don't imagine a price increase will occur until the half year update however. Patience should hopefully pay off in the end.
Support at 50c. I wouldn't want to be holding if that level is breached. Could quickly drop to previous support of 45c. Share price is not supported by dividend or low pe either.
Looks to be holding at 52 today... just. Any TA guys seeing any strong signals?
Hi Johnny see my post#225 on 18th Jan 2013....nothing much has changed since then...ATM still in rigor mortis...patience!!!
minor changes has seen a slightly more Technical weakness the 52c buyers from last week have been satisfied and some unsatisfied sellers have dropped their price down a notch ....compare the 9.00am depth table below with the one I posted last week,,there seems to be the same amount of buyers v sellers....so not much happening....
The scenario..... A group of travellers coming across the ATM body in the desert...It's big strange unfamiliar animal... is it dangerous?.. is it still alive? or is it just pretending and has you in its sights as a prey...It kinda looks like it may need rescuing??...The temption is to kick it and see if it moves..however the threat that it could all of a sudden spring up and maul you puts you off,,,so you wait,,and wait..and wait..the temption to kick it builds...We've waited 3 weeks now and the temptation is near overwhelming...some one's is going to yield and kick it.....real soon methinks.
Whats going to happen?? spring up and maul you or a friendly lick of thanks for saving me and turns into mans best friend...hmmmm
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...ps3969e3d7.png
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-safe-to-drink
Could this help ATM's push into the Asian markets. After the Melamine incident a new "healthy" alternative to Fonterra's products could be the answer.
Doesn't the toxicity come from the ground ....through the grass to the milk. It's a fertiliser additive
Where do ATM graze?
I don't know that ATM can trademark anything but the brand they sell that milk under,if the brand they use is A2 then maybe they will have problems.It is a genetic type,so don't know how they could stop competitors from calling their milk A2.
You amaze me Sparky with your research, The trademark I think refers to the actual design (graphic) as a brand and MAYBE not as the use of the letters A2 in itself,but the genetic testing,well I guess that is a whole different ball game,I would not have thought you could patent that,interesting,a company to watch I think.
.....yea well done Sparky however I cant see Mr Market liking this latest news re : Contaminated milk. As we all know, He (Mr Market) doesnt do a lot of research.....just reacts. Herd of sheep??
.....PUTTING IT LIKE THAT SPARKY, I ALMOST WANNA MOVE TO AUCKLAND .....NOT!!! (10mins to the surf and fishing grounds here in Beautiful Tauranga)
What Rubbish!!
By the way.... Mr Market hasn't reacted at all to that newsbreak last Friday It seems Mr Market has so far assumed this news is media mischief .....still at 52c (no change) as I type.
Technically it seems the flat line is turning into a short term decline (bollinger bands) this weakness commenced last Monday (21st) well before the media newsbreak ...so this small decline is not the result of the news.
ATM should be watched as it is throwing up caution and more sellers are appearing...ATM is trading at this moment within its 50 -55 trading range formation...With technical weakness I expect it to test its bottom range of 50c.
flocked if I know, but various participants have done a good job with market assurance and putting forward the scienceQuote:
Herd of sheep??
Has hit 50 cents (albeit on only 1000 shares). I'm sure all holders are watching cautiously to see which way she will swing from here.
[QUOTE=Hoop;391550]What Rubbish!!
.........so you havnt "heard of sheep" HOOPY.........they control the share markets around the world.......sometimes referred to as TRADERS??..........I KNOW THIS 'COS SOMETIMES I BECOME SHEEP MYSELF!
51c and plummetting as I write.......better keep a sharp eye on those intersecting lines mate (technically speaking).......think of them as fences to a sheep pen! LOL
.....LOL hoop! Hey hope they come right for you m8........I really thought they might have got hit a bit harder today with this nonsense being pushed by the media (in fact I was hoping they were going to cos I wana buy back in!).......really "scratching-the-bucket" stuff I think?
[QUOTE=Dej;391706]More buyers accumulating at 49c, bait for the TA fish...eh?....I will hold off as long as I can if it does fall to 49...a have a manual stop to avoid getting duped by a shake out at 49c (although with the present depth this seems an unlikely action). I will watch for possible reversal of the TA indicators around the 50c mark.
The theoretical play is to buy at the bottom of trading ranges ...not a great reward and the risk seems high at the moment so this option doesn't thrill me at the moment... but what I love about investing is how rapidly situations can change and the exitement in being in and able to ride along with that change ..a bit like the excitement of surfing a wave (sigh...brings back memories of my younger days...Whale Bay :))
From a fundamental point of view, this company isn't any different when it was 64c. They just managed a capital raising exercise in the wrong fashion, which has resulted in the faithless profit taking (because they can - who blames them) which has driven the price lower, and lower. Now people are jumping ship as they have lost faith. I made a few phone calls today to reassure myself - but even then I have my doubts.
Milford is still holding. 2.2% in active growth fund, one of their biggest NZ holdings. They had 1.5ish% before the capital raising so even they took a hit, but they are holding. That has to be a sign in itself.
My point of view anyways. Hoop, went surfing this weekend at Whangamata, never been surfing there before but wasnt to bad! Choppy though, but still a wave or two. Get back on the board!
:)
..........From a fundamental point of view, this company isn't any different when it was 64c. They just managed a capital raising exercise in the wrong fashion, which has resulted in the faithless profit taking............
A cynic may say the share price should never have been up that high and was manipulated to 64c to facilitate a capital raising that allowed the founding fathers to realise some of their profits.
Disc. I acquired a substantial shareholding from the capital raising and am holding for the medium term.
I'm with Sparky on this one. I'm not concerned what happens in the next three weeks, it's completely irrelevant as there have been no announcements. I'm very confident that the profit update will set things straight, leaving those selling now with a red face as they sold their shares at a ~20% discount. Time will tell though!
I'm with moosie on this. Looks bad. I hold
Today was just noise
You young guys read the bit below .... if attention span a bit low the message is Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.
Instead of finding it in Talebs book and typing it out google found it for me
http://www.financialplanningsouthafr...trategies.html
Nassim Taleb, in his book, Fooled by Randomness, imagines a fictitious retired dentist who employs long term investment strategies and expects to earn investment returns of 15% over time on his portfolio, with an error rate (or “volatility”) of 10% a year.
From a statistical point of view, if one assumes a normal distribution for simplicity, it means that out of every 100 observations of investment performance we would expect that close to 68 of them would fall within a band of plus and minus 10% around the expected return of 15% (they would fall between 5% and 25% just over two-thirds of the time).
A 15% return with a 10% volatility per year translates into a 93% probability of success (a positive return) in any given year. Taleb points out, however, that the probability of success reduces as the time scale narrows.
For example, there would be a 67% probability of success with a one-month time frame, and only a 54% probability of success if the time frame is reduced to one day. This is common sense: in the very short term anything can happen. It takes time, or an increased number of observations, for the average long-term trend to emerge.
If the retired dentist monitored his long term investment portfolio every minute in an eight-hour day, he would on average have 241 pleasurable (positive return) observations against 239 unpleasurable (negative return) observations.
There is an old adage in the financial advice industry...
...an investor experiences the pain of a loss with twice the intensity of the pleasure of a gain!
This unfortunate dentist would probably end every day emotionally drained, stressed and uncertain about his investment strategy. The chances of a poor investment decision, based largely on emotion, are high.
If the dentist examines his long term investment portfolio every month (perhaps he gets a monthly valuation statement). As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four unpleasurable observations, and eight pleasurable observations.
There is still a good chance of a poor decision - remember that it is possible that he could experience a few negative months in a row. It takes a strong investor not to panic in a situation like this.
If he could extend his time scale to one year (where the portfolio’s performance is assessed in an annual review with a financial advisor, for example) then the picture changes dramatically. He will in all likelihood experience only one unpleasant year out of every 20. The chances of making a bad investment decision, based on emotion, are now very low.
It is important to note that the overall investment returns are identical in the above examples (the same set of data has been used - it is just the time frames that have been changed).
Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.
Winner...a wise post for the young fellas...I think the dentist is showing periods of cognitive dissonance behaviour......and this behavour is commonly seen on ST (every day)...there was a good discussion about it on ST some years back but bugger if I can find it on ST search..
Following on from what Sparky posted:
"Kindred Agency and Total Media will be working in partnership with Channel 4 media and are spending close to £1m to reach their target audience across multiple platforms."
http://www.foodbev.com/news/dannii-m...k#.UQncZY5ptUQ
SSH just released, Milford have topped up to 6.76%, mainly in the Active Growth Fund. Certainly a vote of confidence given the recent SP activity.