Unfortunately for shareholders the share price is going no where in the immediate future...
Printable View
Congrats to Chatham Rock! Good milestone to pass, I do feel a little bad continually pushing this, however average phophate price in Novemeber was USD $108 a tonnne.. down another $12... With the world bank still forcasting real rate declines out to 2025... Just hope every holder is aware of this! Congrats to CRp none the less,, IM sure a lot of work went into that license!
It’s a long term high reward high risk investment with a long way to go and potentially a big future.
I see the three main risks for the venture as being the mining permit, the marine consent and perhaps the remaining apportionment, lesser of the three, on the boat construction and early operations.
CRP have made good progress this year, albeit a few months slower within a multiyear plan, and are perhaps now a third de-risked on the way to a de-risked valuation in the order of $2.
Disc: Hold, buy any dips along the way.
Mac, I would take that valuation from Edison with a grain of salt. If you want to waste good money, that is your choice but check what Intel has been saying before you rush in. I am not knocking CRP, I think they are doing good things and hope it works but some of the valuations given seem to be plucked out of thin air.
Thanks blackcap, have done my research thoroughly, price sensitivities, and FA at $1.85 also, slightly lower than Edison at $2.04 and CRP’s at $2.20 , and understand the risks start up ventures pose.
I apply portfolio diversification limit rules to manage risk also and wouldn't recommend to others to invest their house in a startup venture , but I do see CRP as one of the more prospective within the NZX.
Look forward to a marine consent next year.
DYOR
Hmmmm... DYOR is ironic in that last post, as you are of the belief that nothing has changed since august, when Edisons report was released.. Ill help you, Global phosphate prices have plummeted, from 165 to 108 since that last report, See attached for a scenario analysis of sensitivity to changes in phosphate prices from Edison. You are betting on a company which will be one of the highest cost producers in a market which is having huge amounts of supply come on line.... An undetermined mining contract rate which was advised to be 70 Euro per tonne, that was almost 2 years ago now and guess what, prices go up... In my view this is not the time to be investing in such a company... Happy to hear and understand how you derive such a valuation? Also relying on a resaerch report like Edison is silly as you have no clue what assumptions they put in their models..
Attachment 5157
Oh and add to the fact that CRP has next to $0 in the bank account now, so you will have further dilution and capital raisings at much lower prices....
'
Thanks for posting your analysis there Intel, or should I say, Edison's analysis. Things as they stand look bleak for CRP as costs are increasing indeed. And with such prospects, the untried nature of it will no doubt create greater costs than initially anticipated. And yes the price sensitivity is spectacular.
You could be right and Edison could be right, time will tell, it will be an interesting watch.
Anyone can point towards any successful project which Chris Castle has been involved in since 1990?
Since I’ve some time here’s a balance to the view of the stock knockers on this thread when it comes to the rock phosphate market and the valuation of CRP.
Phosphate is a cyclical commodity like any other and tracks the Commodity Price Index reasonably well over time.
What the knockers won’t point out is that the price of rock phosphate in 2012, 2013 and 2014 is entirely irrelevant in assessing the valuation of CRP.
CRP have a mining permit for 35M tonnes for 20 years starting in 2015 and ending in 2035, perhaps a little more now they have picked up the additional prospecting permits.
The valuation of CRP is a function of the prospective discounted cashflow’s from operating revenues generated during this 20 year period from 2016 onwards.
Note on the chart below the price spike in rock phosphate in 2008, this was due to disrupted supply in North Africa due to political unrest, the dip in 2013 is due to a potash cartel breakup. These things will occur and will continue to occur over decades.
Attachment 5172
Well put Mac, any fool can hide behind a nom de plume and be a knocker... one fool who I wont name, ( but will read this with in 30 minutes of my posting it ) is very vociferous on this site...
would have at most $6000 to his name and lives in a Caravan at the back of his brothers house... in his 50 s... but been bludging most of his life.
In fact .. take this as a chance to fess up..? you wont tho will you. ?? ( go on your feel better for it ) What about if I buy you 2 casks of wine and a bottle of cheap sherry ?
Lets see if he responds.
Regards
Off Shore prospecting is expensive..
Does have good returns when all goes well....
Will a number 8 wire company be able to come up with the answers in this field ??
No !!.. IMHO..
Janner... smarten up.. Boskalis is not no 8 wire.
Have you done any research on CRP s partners, ????
obviously you are way out of your depth.
Suggest Bonus Bonds,
Regards
Bonus Bonds..
Been into them from the inception.. Still have the same investment $700 hahaa..
Depth being the critical word..
Not out of it.. Just do not want to be any where near this project..
Many, Many, many, other places with better immediate returns available ..
Pie in the sky .. Or in this case.. Pie in the sea. Is not for me..
A good summary within this article,
http://agrihq.co.nz/article/chatham-...ng-fast-5m?p=7
Things seem to be looking up again after that painful non time limited bureaucratic frickin delay unkindly provided by NZP&M. I’m pleased as an investor to know that the marine consent process is time limited to six months.
It could be a big year for CRP with the schedule looking a bit firmer now;
1. Complete final capital raising - January/February:
2. Apply for marine consent - February/March:
3. Marine consent outcome announcement - August/September:
4. Conformation of an operating contract with Boskalis – late 2014
5. Commencement of boat construction – late 2014
6. Dual listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange – late 2014.
Cheers MAC.
Once we get the Marine Consent, the S/P should rocket.
AOR... is a cheap entry....and could surprise with Kotuku
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11180675
Nothing new here but nice to see it getting some publicity in todays herald.
It would be interesting to know how far along Boskalis are now with the detailed ship conversion and equipment design.
http://www.boskalis.com/press/news-a...w-zealand.html
There was a suggestion by CRP that Boskalis would start the detailed design once the mining permit was granted but prior to marine consent approval and final FID.
ie: to make some use of the now gone permit delay to keep the design schedule on track.
“Dutch company Royal Boskallis is expected to confirm soon it will hasten spending”
http://agrihq.co.nz/article/boskalis...al-raising?p=6
The January Edison Research report suggested CRP and Boskalis were to meet in the next couple of weeks, and if I recall from the 2013 capital raising docs, there was an option left open for Boskalis to perform detailed ship conversion design work in parallel with CRP pursuing the marine consent process.
As it may pull the schedule forward quite a bit, let’s hope for an announcement.
my sentiments exactly croesus....aor also have asian mineral resources shareholding and the vietnam mine is now producing nickel, copper and cobalt but i cant remember how big a shareholding they have got.....after several capital raisings which AOR couldnt afford to partake in, but they are on AOR books at 3 cents value but shares on Toronto exchange are now trading at 8 cents.AOR have stated they are looking to exit the mine shareholding to concentrate on nz and chattam rise but i am little worried the water depth is fairly deep to suck up nodules but time and money will tell
They’re in very capable operational hands Ziggy, lot’s of experience within Boskalis, operating in 75 countries with 1,100 vessels and equipment.
http://www.boskalis.com/home.html
I’ve never been so sure about that AOR theory that gets kicked about from time to time, AOR only have a 3.94% stake in CRP. Doubt if their ticker will really even twitch much when CRP flies.
Shareholders:
Subsea Investments 27%, Boskalis 19%, Odyssey Exploration 7%, Mineral Investments 6.4%, …....., AOR 3.94%
Page 34: http://static.squarespace.com/static..._2599325_1.pdf
Bit of wishful thinking on my part i guess, ive ended up with a truck load of options in Aor and 14 million shares in chattam will give some value for Aor but same old problem, when cash issues are unable to be taken up your holding soon drops, but for chattam share holders all the best but its election year and a greens/labour govt aint goin to sanction any nasty company diiging the seabed
The venture being net environmental friendly aside, I agree it could be politically interesting, the schedule is important;
If the application is lodged before mid April, and as required a marine consent decision must be provided within six months, then approval will come prior to the election, probably in November.
In this case CRP may get some political assistance as National will not want to see a fair venture fail under its brand new legislation, especially in election year.
If the marine consent is lodged in May or later, than who really knows, CRP have a good environmental case, and I don’t really believe Labour will want to block all growth in NZ, that wouldn’t get them both employment and re-elected.
I think your looking at it from the wrong end.. if AOR have 3.94% of CRP.. it doesn't sound much, but I am guessing that 3.94% of CRP .. makes up a big share of AORs assets... so if CRP ... surges to say $1.... what would that mean for AOR NAV ... lots I suggest.
DISC currently 3 rd largest holder of AOR warrants
It's not for me but I wish you well with that approach Croesus, it's notable to hold a million shares of anything.
I'm looking at CRP as a circa $1.50 stock at years end, all going well, and once the permitry is dust and dual listing on the Toronto exchange is complete.
Should be enough upside for all.
We must be getting very close to submission of the marine consent by now...
I think March, will look into it and come back to you
I think March, will look into it and come back to you
From Feb 2014 factsheet that was emailed out a week or so ago.
Chatham Rock Phosphate has been granted a Mining Permit to extract New Zealand’s only major rock phosphate resource from the Chatham Rise. Obtaining this Mining Permit is the first of a two-part process, which also involves an application for an environmental Marine Consent.
The Marine Consent process takes six months, and will probably get underway in March. The process includes the opportunity for anyone with an interest to make a submission to the Environmental Protection Authority, and it will also involve formal hearings.
Media Release
25 February 2014
Chatham Rock Phosphate attends PDAC
Chatham Rock Phosphate will be an exhibitor for the first time at the
Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada convention, the world's
largest minerals investment and trade show being held in Toronto Canada next
week.
"It is THE place where the mining industry talks turkey and does business,"
CRP Managing Director Chris Castle said today.
He has attended the mining show for more than a decade but this year secured
a prime booth position among the 600-plus in the investor exhibition area.
Government agency New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is also operating a
booth to promote New Zealand minerals projects and investment. Last year Mr
Castle was the guest speaker at the New Zealand Government-hosted function.
Mr Castle will be hosting the CRP booth with Najib Moutia, CRP's Canadian
based Vice President Strategy, who is responsible for sales and marketing.
He said the booth would provide a focus for people wanting to learn more
about CRP's innovative deep sea mining project. CRP's technical partner
Royal Boskalis will also be displaying information on its capability.
PDAC has been running since 1932 and the annual convention now has more than
1000 exhibitors and 500 speakers. The 30,000 people who come from more than
120 different countries attend hundreds of presentations, courses, workshops
and technical sessions during the four-day event.
CRP holds a strategic, multi-million tonne organic rock phosphate deposit
uniquely positioned to access Asian and Australasian fertiliser markets. It
was granted a 20-year mining licence in 2013 and has recently applied for new
prospecting licences both east and west of its existing licence areas that
could significantly increase the scope of resources. The company is
currently finalising its Environmental Impact Assessment for its Marine
Consent application.
Sometimes I think it’s worth holding a few CRP shares just for the colourful announcements, where else does the CEO let us know he’s off to Canada to talk turkey.
Hopefully some good exposure and final capital arises, I sense that if this can finally be knocked off in the next few weeks it’s onward and upward for CRP from this point.
Consented, TSK dual listed, and ship designing by years end.
Moosie... Chris is smarter then your average Canuck.
BTW... I am a Napier Ratepayer, have been for over 30 years... and some idiot ( oops shouldn't shoot the messenger ) tried to charge me $15,, to visit you at the Museum last week... is the $15 for you, or all the other relics... very concerning !!!
Will reclaim my book if you have read it, ?
BTW.. listened to that Labour Idiot Cunliffe being interviewed on National Radio this week... what a phony... no wonder they are dead in the water
Would appear the boys at Wimmer financial are either the slowest investment bankers in history or they can't get anyone else on board from their "extensive network". Anyone got a date to when the cash runs out for crp?
Business class fares to toronto for cc and his wife will be eating up a fair chunk of the remainder anyway.
Cash as at 30 September of 764,000 + 240,000 in new capital. Wonder how much of that 1m is left?
All the best to people that still hold this thing....
26 February 2014
Chatham Rock Phosphate advises financing strategy
As recently advised CRP Managing Director Chris Castle recently made a repeat visit to London to meet UK based potential investors.
The visit proved to be successful.
Meetings were held with a number of investment groups that identified with the project and who indicated their interest in investing by means of private placement, subject to Chatham Rock Phosphate establishing a secondary listing on the London AIM market.
Accordingly the CRP board has agreed to proceed with the AIM listing process, which is expected only two to three months to complete (as there is no associated public offering).
In order to maintain our existing momentum, including filing our marine consent application (EIA) in the next few weeks, a decision has also been made to make a very attractively priced rights issue to existing shareholders. Details of this offer will be announced to shareholders on 14 March and the rights will be both renounceable and, subject to NZX approval, tradeable on the NZAX market. Shareholders will also be entitled to apply for shortfall from the offer in addition to their entitlement. It is also intended to establish a panel of underwriters in order to ensure that the issue is fully subscribed.
CRP holds a strategic, multi-million tonne organic rock phosphate deposit uniquely positioned to access Asian and Australasian fertiliser markets. It was granted a 20-year mining licence in 2013 and has recently applied for new prospecting licences both east and west of its existing licence areas that could significantly increase the scope of resources. The company is currently finalising its Environmental Impact Assessment for its Marine Consent application.
Meetings were held with a number of investment groups that identified with the project and who indicated their interest in investing by means of private placement, subject to Chatham Rock Phosphate establishing a secondary listing on the London AIM market.
Does this sound legit or just a bit of hype to get investors to buy in on the rights issue? Surely if you were interested in investing in a company you would just do so. Anyone have any ideas on this, I'm still fairly new to this stuff, but sounds a bit strange to me. A bit of help please.
My anticipation would be that there are indeed UK investor(s) willing as stated but perhaps not quite enough to complete the final $6M capital raising required, CRP are legally obligated not to mislead on such a matter. How much of a balance should better become known on 14th March.
To date CRP have raised $25M they just need this final $6M and they are done. According to Edison, when the marine consents are attained, it is likely that key holders would exercise options providing a further NZ$11M. CRP have also previously advised of some form of agreement with Subsea investments as I understand and this NZ$11M would be in excess of what they require to take them into full operation.
The difficulty they have had in the final raising has been IMHO due to the regulatory delays, the EEZ legislation coming out of left field and the NZP&M bureaucrats taking much longer than they should. It knocked out the momentum.
So, this rights issue is probably the last opportunity to buy at these levels and potentially also receive further options. I might just well consider at a top up if the rights issue conditions looks attractive.
Thanks MAC for putting me at ease, Bring on March 14 then.
Article from Sharechat
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...ree-monthshtml
just went through the rights issue prospectus and wondered whether they will keep the promised deadline for filing their marine consent application - and then it pops up at as NZX announcement - just in time:
CRP
31/03/2014 16:45
GENERAL
REL: 1645 HRS Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited
GENERAL: CRP: CRP files draft Marine Consent application
Media Release
31 March 2014
Chatham Rock Phosphate files draft Marine Consent application
Chatham Rock Phosphate today submitted a draft Marine Consent application to
the Environmental Protection Authority - the culmination of four years work
and more than $25 million in investment.
The Marine Consent is the only major licence CRP now needs, having gained a
mining permit for its phosphate extraction project in December. The EPA, New
Zealand's environmental regulator, is expected to decide on CRP's application
in November after a full public process.
Including the proceeds of the rights issue presently underway, Chatham has
raised over $27 million from its existing shareholders and through placements
to qualified investors to finance extensive spending on science-based
research.
Managing Director Chris Castle said the CRP team was very proud of the work
contained in the application.
"Rigourous research by scientists has considered the relevant facets of what
we propose and demonstrates how we can minimise and mitigate environmental
impacts.
"We sincerely appreciate the input from all of our stakeholders that has
contributed to our thinking. We believe our work will satisfy any issues
raised.
"Having done our homework, we know this project stacks up technically,
environmentally and financially."
Mr Castle said the CRP's phosphate resource, located on the seabed of the
Chatham Rise, offers fertiliser security for New Zealand's primary industry,
has big export and import substitution potential, as well as environmental
benefits, making it a project of national significance.
The Environmental Impact Assessment forming the centrepiece of the Marine
Consent application will be considered under the Exclusive Economic Zone
environmental consenting regime that came into force in June last year as
part of the EEZ and Continental Shelf (Environmental Effects) legislation.
Supplementing the 459-page main document are more than 30 appendices, mostly
scientific reports and models. The information in the EIA will be publicly
available on the EPA website, and via a link on rockphosphate.co.nz, once the
EPA has accepted the application as complete. People are then able to read
the information, make submissions and attend public hearings during the next
six months.
Contact Chris Castle on +64 21 55 81 85 or chris@crpl.co.nz
End CA:00248935 For:CRP Type:GENERAL Time:2014-03-31 16:45:12
Found these when I was getting fish and chips the other day. NZ Seafood magazine, links:
http://www.seafoodnewzealand.org.nz/...-eric-barratt/
http://www.seafoodnewzealand.org.nz/...ble-fisheries/
This was because I was reading an article that I can't find online, so I'll type up the interesting parts of the photo of it I took with my cellphone:
January 2014 Issue.
"Strip-mining the seabed would destroy ecosystems and wreck our reputation, writes George Clement"
"The environmental protection authority now has the task of deciding whether to grant marine consent When it considers the environmental and economic impacts, I hope the numbers count: the Chatham rise eco-system generates $160m of the $1.6 billion annual returns from seafood This equates to $2.4 billion over the 15 years of the proposed phosphate mining proposal -which promises to add only $900 million to New Zealand over the project's life. Why would any government put a sustainable income stream at jeopardy for a one-off sum of$900 million?" sic sic sic
Chris' latest environmental report said that the "permit covers 820km2 and we envisage our operations will affect about half that area over the life of the mine. That means less than a quarter of 1% of the Chatham Rise sea floor will be disturbed and even then only intemittently." Around 30km2 will be mined each year, "and over 15 years will amount to 450km2 or approximately 0.5% of the rise".
Come one CRP. Same piece of paper and at one point it says .5% will be 'mined' and .25% will be 'disturbed'.
"Sediment of 1mm thickness are predicted to extend no further than 8km along the seabed." So with a pessimistic view, that's an 8km band around the mining area that is affected, Sqrt(450)=21.21, so if it was a unrealistically efficient (conservative) square area, (21.21+2*8)^2 = 1384km2 of affected area + sediment. These numbers are getting bigger everytime I see them.
Holder at a descent loss atm.
This business is a horrible thought for the environment, ethically, it would not be for me. I also don't like these big oil tanker sized processing ships coming into New Zealand waters to catch enormous tonnage of fish, smash a fish population, to dry for feed, and fatten up salmon.
and guess who wrote the article in question? The author is Eric Barratt, the MD of Sanford. I guess this is a typical case of the pot calling the kettle black - with the minor difference that Sanford has already environmental convictions (http://www.3news.co.nz/US-case-costs...0/Default.aspx), CRP has not.
But even if we don't assume more sinister reasons (like not wanting ships in the neighbourhood able to check Sanfords records) - nobody likes new neighbours in what they thought are their pastures. The seafood industry fighting for our environment ... yeah right - give me a TUI!
I couldn't comment on the trading side of things Moosie, that's your department, but it all seems a bit illiquid to me to wait too long.
A large proportion of shares on issue are held very loyally by the larger long term investors Subsea, Boskalis, Odyssey, Mineral Investments and Aotea (63%). This leaves a balance of only 37% or about $13M in shares on the NZAX.
If CRP secure $6M to $8M on the AIM market, it's possible that the AIM could set the share price going forward.
Would you not have to accumulate over time, buy the dips, to get a reasonable holding ?
Put in a bid at 34 cents Mac and I am sure you will be able to pick up millions :)
But in all seriousness, I am with Moosie on this one. Plenty of time to wait before the share price gets moving. And if memory serves me correctly, AOR is the cheaper vehicle to go through to get an exposure to this venture. So instead of buying CRP you would be better off buying AOR. That said if they (AOR) did not take up the rights then the discount may be gone. Should have another look when time permits.
I've been wondering that too Blackcap, we should know on 29th April how much has been taken up by the big players, if any, when the underwriter gets their allotment. AOR's not for me as it comes with additional risks, but I wish you well with that, should be enough in this venture for all to go around though.
MAC.
I respectfully dis agree.. re " AOR additional risks.... they have ( AOR) .. on sold a lot of the risk and cost re Brunner Oil Seeps ( Kotuku) to Mossman.. and hold shares in Mossman and also a profit percentage if this drill turns into the new Taranaki.
Agree most of the other assets ie Fiji, Vietnam etc are a lucky dip. But the company is debt free.
Moosie .. I agree " re for a change " .. but not in as I read your statement in a slightly cynical snide tone... more in a the guy has worked hard with a lot of projects, for his sake ( and mine and other shareholders ) he deserves a big one to come up trumps... nuff said.
Good Easter, to all posters.
BTW.. Moosie, presume you are getting some. ? ... its Rutting season for Moose.... good luck..
Cheers Moosie.
Was'nt having a go... agree with your comment on Dairy.
Re AOR... if this Brunner Oil Seep , comes up quids that will be a game changer....at least we know Oil is there, unlike most Drills, which are akin to that Game, " Battleship " I used to play as a kid.
Well, the rights issue seems to have gone very well, I would have liked to have picked up a lot more than I did in the oversubscription, surprised CRP didn’t make it larger actually, but I guess the underwriter are due they’re rightfully take.
So, Chatham Rock have a little time now to raise the final remaining $8M on the AIM market, incrementally up until November.
I would be entirely disappointed in management if they chose not to take their time over this a little, and, would be equally disappointed if they don’t now raise the bulk of the final capital well above the present share price.
After all the mining permit is held, the resource area may expand further, market sentiment is up with the recovery of the phosphate market and Chatham Rock are well placed, much much better than Trans-Tasman IMHO, to work through the marine consent process successfully.
It’s a stock that will be worth a heck of a lot more by December and there would be absolutley no point in just giving it away in May Chris.
Well said Mac.
Totally agree, if you have a minute... could you give us some details on the rising Phosphate market, ? I presume you mean that dodgy phosphate from Morocco we import... burning millions of gallons of Fossil fuels to get it here ... what percentage is the price up from last year... and is the reason less supply, or more demand.. or both. ?
Thanks very much ( in advance )
MAC may have a different source, but I find this very useful for tracking the phosphate price: http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...rock-phosphate
Cheers
Roberto
Cheers Roberto, was looking damn good just over 2 years ago....and definitely heading back up,
I wonder what the driver is for the Phosphate price... more demand or less supply. ??
Hi Croesus,
From a short term, being six months to a year or so, it’s nice to see rock phosphate prices on the rise or at a long term nadir.
It’s been a bit unfortunate up until recently that Chatham Rock have been trying to raise capital into a cyclical market, but year to date rock phosphate prices are up 7% and up three months in a row.
From a shoter term supply and demand perspective I understand the anticipated CAGR for the market to 2018 is around 2.8% pa.
regards, Mac
Attachment 5750
Now the waiting begins, bring on November.
GENERAL: CRP: Chatham Rock Phosphate files Marine Consent Application
CRP
15/05/2014 08:30
GENERAL
REL: 0830 HRS Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited
GENERAL: CRP: Chatham Rock Phosphate files Marine Consent Application
Media Release
15 May 2014
CRP files Marine Consent application - starts six month decision process
Chatham Rock Phosphate today submitted its formal marine consent application
to the Environmental Protection Authority. Should it be accepted as
complete, the six-month formal process is expected to lead to a decision in
November.
The application, representing four years' work and $25 million in investment,
is the second seabed mining proposal under the Exclusive Economic Zone and
Continental Shelf (Environmental Effects) Act 2012, and will be considered
through a full public process by an expert panel appointed by the
Environmental Protection Authority (EPA).
The marine consent is the only major licence CRP now needs, having gained a
mining permit for its phosphate extraction project in December 2013. CRP
submitted a draft application to the EPA on 31 March 2014 and since then has
been working with the EPA to address the EPA's preliminary comments on its
application.
Managing Director Chris Castle said he was confident the application would
meet the tough standard demanded by the law.
"Our focus has always been two-fold: base the analysis on science and consult
with all interested parties to ensure their concerns are addressed through
the process. Input from both stakeholders and scientists is critical to make
sure all the bases are covered.
"The results of this analysis and consultation are that we understand what
the environmental impacts are likely to be and we can clearly demonstrate how
we can minimise and mitigate them. We know this project can deliver to its
shareholders financially, and to other stakeholders in terms of environmental
requirements."
CRP's phosphate resource, located on the seabed of the Chatham Rise, offers
fertiliser security for New Zealand's primary industry, has big export and
import substitution potential, as well as environmental benefits as a direct
application fertiliser, making it a project of national significance.
The main 400-plus page document comprising the Environmental Impact
Assessment is supplemented by 35 appendices, mostly scientific reports. The
information will be publicly available on the EPA website and via a link on
www.rockphosphate.co.nz should the EPA accept the application as complete.
All interested parties will then able to read the information, make
submissions and attend public hearings during the next six months.
Not sure I understand what your trying to say Moose.
Why should the Greens be "quaking ".. they should be all in supporting CRP,
ie is a far better phosphate, with out the toxic stuff, there are no huge carbon costs in transporting from Morroco,
It will earn us export dollars, create employment, and help our trade balance..
cheers
I agree with you Roberto, the likes of KASM will protest just because they have to justify their ‘rebel with a cause’ image to all their mates, and it’s election year so the Greens will do what they do.
As I see it though the land based environmental benefits seem to balance the sea bed effects, probably making the venture net environmentally positive for New Zealand inc.
IMO New Zealand may as well declare itself closed for business if this one doesn’t get approved and we can all go back to living in caves knowing the environment is perfect.
http://static.squarespace.com/static...14%20final.pdf
Video from business TV ? posted on the website 14/05/2014
http://www.b-tv.com/features/watch-now.html?id=593
Looks like Chatham Rise is just the beginning.
Cheers for the vid hilskin. Getting out there finally. Hopefully we will see more of this as they run up to the LSE. Is anyone going to their meeting?
Here we go ... another milestone ticked. Admittedly not the hardest one, but it is still an indication they did a thorough job. Publication of their application is now pending.
Phosphate prices reportedly continue to drop.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...reduces-prices
Its this kind of nonsense that really puts me off companies like CRP:
REL: 1403 HRS Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited
GENERAL: CRP: Edison Report says CRP share price at big discount
Media Release
Latest Edison report says CRP share price at big discount to unrisked
valuation
30 May 2014
Edison Investment Research's latest report says Chatham Rock Phosphate's
shares are trading at a significant discount to its unrisked valuation of
$1.76 a share.
The research note says CRP has delivered on its milestones and awaits the set
six month timeframe for marine consent in the final quarter of 2014 and the
finalisation of its seabed mining contract in the first half of 2015. The
marine consent is the last major consent the company needs.
"The high margin, low impurity, long-life, wholly owned Chatham Rock
Phosphate project does not require any development capital under the build,
own and operate mining project model."
The $1.76 unrisked valuation reflects the dilution of the company's capital
from its 1-10 rights issue and takes account of planned capital raising
associated with the London AIM listing.
The report notes CRP's preferred partner to build and operate its mining
dredge is Royal Boskalis but that there are four other dredging specialists
showing interest, which reduces the risk to CRP's production plans if
Boskalis elected not to proceed.
"With increased global exploration activity directed to marine deposits,
there is a strong appetite from global dredging companies to be involved in
the embryonic seabed mining industry. To reflect expected international
interest in the project, CRP is planning an AIM listing."
For further information please contact Chris Castle on 021 55 81 85 or
chris@crpl.co.nz
End CA:00251072 For:CRP Type:GENERAL Time:2014-05-30 14:03:50
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Not a very good ethical investment in my opinion. This would significantly destroy an area on the ocean floor. The largest area of importance for the whole food chain. I like the concept, but don't like the consequence.
Well done to you Chris Castle to get an NZ startup to where it is, a fair and sound report too from Edison as always also.
With a successful AIM capital round and a marine consent there will be little to hold this one back.
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....ock-phosphate5
[QUOTE=MAC;483746], a fair and sound report too from Edison as always also.
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....ock-phosphate5[/QUOTE
Sorry Mac, but what do you base that on? (the fair and sound bit that is)
Hi Blackcap,
I've been researching CRP for some time now, in terms of a valuation workup, there are one or two points of difference I have with Edison's work, mainly surrounding local market pricing efficacy, but generally their research and their DCF is within cooey of my own humble efforts.
It's one of those venture propositions that are high up the risk/reward curve, many just see the risk, but that's what provides growth investors with researched opportunities.
many regards, Mac
HI Mac, appreciate the reply and note your comments. I cannot juxtapose the disparity between what the market is valuing CRP at and what Edison values them at. Good luck with this investment, its not for me, although I do have an indirect interest via AOR.
Easy to take the moral high ground, but more difficult if you want to be honest as well ...
Yes, I assume the "vacuumed" area need a bit time to recover (and I am sure, we find more about this in the consent application), but than - we talk here something like one percent of the Chatham rise and this area mined over 20 years. Hardly a huge environmental impact.
As well - did you consider the environmental impact of the current supply of fertilizer? It needs to be transported all around the globe (high carbon footprint) and it contains much more heavy metal which we gets into the food chain. It comes as well from countries which hardly care about the environment.
But why would we want to allow the facts to spoil a great opportunity to protest?
OAO Uralkali Chief Executive Officer Dmitry Osipov favors stable potash prices as he considers how to manage output at the world’s biggest producer of the fertilizer.
That’s a relief for investors and peers after the company’s decision, under his predecessor, to end a venture with Belarus and ramp up production led to a price slump of about 30 percent.
“We are a responsible market player,” Osipov, 48, said in an interview in his Moscow office. “Market share is important for us but we don’t want prices to fall. It’s too early to say what utilization rate we will have in the second half.”
Just some info
EPA marine consent submissions are now open.
I intend to make one in favour of the venture which I believe to be net environmentally friendly, and I think the majority of New Zealanders would agree with that aside from a few minority interest groups with agenda’s greater than Chatham rock Phosphate.
If you hold a similar view it is important to make a submission. I noted that only eight submissions were made in favour of Trans Tasman Resources however the environmental position of Chatham Rock is much more comprehensive and compelling in my view.
If you have lived in the Waikato as I have in the past you just have to look at the hundreds of choked streams, waterways and small lakes to see the effects of fertiliser runoff, it’s truly appalling. If Chatham Rock Phosphate will improve the environment and minimise the effects of a growing dairy industry then they get my vote over the seemingly relative minimal impact to the sea floor.
The environmental fact sheet is here;
http://static.squarespace.com/static...14%20final.pdf
The EPA submission website is here;
http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/chatham_r...s/default.aspx
Do you know where i live Mac:eek2:
Hi MAC,
thanks for flagging this. I fully agree, while not without environmental impact, it does look that the benefits (cleaner and lower CO2 foot print than imported fertilizer) weigh much heavier that a temporary disturbance of a very small part of the Chatham Rise seabed. Huge economical benefits for the NZ economy as well (jobs - and good for the countries balance of payments).
Shall make a submission and encourage others to do so as well ... it is important that we don't leave the field to a small group of professional nay-sayers.
Discl: holding (a small parcel ...)
feels worse than comparing apples with bananas ... The provided snippet was talking about a potash supplier in Russia - and CRP plans to supply phosphate. Yes, both can be used as fertilizer (and for other things as well) - but phosphate and potassium are in no way exchangeable (less than apples and bananas, which are to a certain degree substitutable, if you don't care what kind of fruit you want to eat).
If your ground lacks phosphates, than you need to add phosphates, no point in adding potassium - and vice versa.
true...i think the thing i got the most was the manipulation of prices by the big boys and one of the previous posts thought the price of fertilizer made chattams break even at best....sucking nodules from 400 meters below the surface still seems a bit pie in the sky for me but the rewards to the country to me are a winner if it works...i think the chattam islands will get new inforstructure so their keen as well.....time will tell
How to support CRP’s marine consent application
The Chatham Rock Phosphate marine consent application is now open for public submissions. As a shareholder you can help our application succeed by making a submission in support. Groups opposed to our application will be asking their supporters to submit, so we’re encouraging our shareholders to have their say.
We’ve included below a summary of key benefits of the project, which might help you with some ideas as to what to say. Below is some information from the Environmental Protection Authority website to make the process as easy as possible for you.
The EPA says a submission is not a vote for or against an application; it’s what your submission says that’s most important – not how many people say the same thing.
Further guidance is available from the information sheet ‘How to make a submission on an EEZ marine consent’. See the submission information sheet
The EPA must receive submissions no later than 5.00pm (New Zealand Standard Time) on Thursday 10 July 2014. To make your submission using the online form click Online submission form . You can attach a Word or pdf document at the end of the online submission form if you want to add further information.
Please note you must complete the online submission form within half an hour or it will time-out, in which case you will need to fill out the form again from the beginning.
Alternatively you can email, post or deliver a submission using this Word document Submission form (Word, 200 kb) It must reach the EPA and CRP before 5.00pm on Thursday 10 July 2014 by email, post or delivered in person.
If you’re emailing, send to CRPapplication@epa.govt.nz and format the subject line of your email with your name and Chatham Rock Phosphate Submission. If you email your submission to the EPA, it’ll be automatically forwarded to CRP.
Alternatively the postal address is - Environmental Protection Authority, Private Bag 63002 Waterloo Quay, Wellington 6140 and if you deliver in person take it to Environmental Protection Authority, Level 10, 215 Lambton Quay, Wellington
If you’re posting you’ll also need to send to - Attention: James Winchester, Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited, C/-Simpson Grierson, PO Box 2402, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
If you’re delivering in person please mark it - Attention: James Winchester Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited, C/-Simpson Grierson, Level 24, 195 Lambton Quay, Wellington New Zealand.
If you need further information to guide you in preparing your submission check out ‘Having your say about an activity’ If you have questions about making a submission or don't understand parts of the submission form, please email CRPapplication@epa.govt.nz or phone 0800 382 527 or +64 4 916 2426 if calling from overseas.
Information about our Marine Consent proposal
Chatham Rock Phosphate (CRP) has now applied for an environmental marine consent to undertake seabed mining at 400 m water depth, about 250 km from the Chatham Islands and 450 km from the South Island.
The marine consent process has a six-month prescribed timeframe so interested parties can make submissions and be heard at public hearings. The EPA has appointed a panel of experts who will base their decision on the scientific evidence they hear. Environmental considerations are balanced against economic benefits. Assuming we receive consent at the end of the year we expect to start production in 2017.
Background
To recap, New Zealand scientists discovered the rock phosphate resource on the crest of the Chatham Rise in the 1950s. Mining the resource has only become viable with the rising price of phosphate and advances in marine technology. CRP has identified at least 35 million tonnes within the mining permit area – more than a 20-year supply at expected production rates.
While we have applied for a large area we are proposing to mine an average of just 30 km2 a year – the equivalent of what the fishing industry bottom trawls in just 8 hours.
Our technical partner, international dredging company Boskalis will use conventional dredging technology attached to a long pipe to suck the top 30 cm of sandy silt up to a large mining vessel. Mechanical sieving will separate the phosphate nodules (2 to 150 mm in size) and discharge the finer sand and silt from another flexible pipe near the seabed. No chemicals are involved.
CRP has spent more than $20 million on scientific research, including six CRP-funded surveys to the Chatham Rise. We have a highly skilled technical team (including three scientists who collected and interpreted most of the data in the 1970s and 80s) and our focus has been to:
· evaluate the likely environmental impact of the project
· identify ways to minimise and monitor effects
· define the resource and develop a mining plan
Stakeholder involvement has been central to the project. After talking to anyone with a potential interest (including environmental groups, the fishing industry, iwi and imi, media, etc) we’ve identified and investigated their concerns and provided information and mitigation options.
Environmental benefits
The project will have localised environmental effects on the seabed within our permit area but will also have significant environmental benefits. Some arise from substituting our product for phosphate fertiliser now sourced from Morocco and other distant locations.
The benefits of using local phosphate include:
It reduces water pollution from run-off when used as a direct application fertiliser because it releases slowly, requiring less frequent applications than conventional fertilisers, further reducing its carbon footprint
· It’s an organic New Zealand-origin product
· It offers security of supply
· It’ll reduce the carbon footprint by lowering transport distances
· It has one of the lowest known concentrations of cadmium of any phosphate rock, which will help prevent cadmium accumulation in New Zealand soils, which in some areas is already at high levels
· The rock is highly reactive, heightening its effectiveness as a fertiliser, and has strong liming qualities.
Benefits for NZ and Chatham Is
CRP expects to sell the product to New Zealand and export to at least eight countries in the Asia-Pacific. The project also has significant economic benefits, including making New Zealand $900 million richer, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
It will have particular benefits for the Chatham Islands. We’ll be able to supply cheap fertiliser; little is applied there because of prohibitive transport costs. Chatham’s Federated Farmers representatives estimate fertiliser could increase farm production 10-fold and add 350 new jobs. Given the current population is below 600, that increase in farm production could transform the local economy and improve the affordability of infrastructure such as power and transport.
What about fishing concerns?
Our mining permit area – covering less than 1% of the Chatham Rise - is not a fishing area. The research predicts sediment effects will be confined to a few kilometres of our mining area, about 250 km from the Chatham Islands.
https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&i...=emb&zw&atsh=1
The Deep Water Fishing Group is concerned about possible impacts on commercial fishing. The key environmental effect will be sediment plume from the return of the fine material to the sea floor.
Modelling predicts those sediment plume effects will be very localised, with sensitive organisms affected up to 7 km from the mining ship. Scientists predict silt and clay concentrations higher than 100 mg per litre will last for no more than a few days in the immediate mining area. Sediment won’t rise more than 50 m above the seabed – well below the most biologically productive part of the water column where most fish are.
Chris Castle
Chief Executive Officer
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited
Email: chris@crpl.co.nz
Cell: +64 21 558 185
Skype: phosphateking
www.rockphosphate.co.nz
Tell me Mac..if there is a change of govt this election...do you know what view the labour party has taken with this project...
Hard to say, I would have thought all the political parties would probably have better fodder than a net environmentally friendly venture like CRP.
Hypothetically though if the next government, whatever that may be were to alter the EEZ legislation, the existing marine consents would likely roll over into whatever replaced it. Similarly the RMA has seen governments come and go without consent holders needing to re-seek approvals.
It’s a fixed timeline now and the EPA must make their ruling by November, so an approval is anticipated before a next government can be formed from a November election, likely in the new year.
CRP have a few things in their favour politically too over the Trans Tasman venture, and IMHO if Trans Tasman do receive their approval tomorrow, I would say CRP will have no trouble whatsoever.
The Chatham Island farming community (most of the population) will benefit, the proposal is net environmentally friendly, and probably most significantly it has a positive impact on the dairy industry in NZ and political concerns over the dairy industry effects on the environment.
A Labour/Greens coalition might even score some points for promoting organic, low cadmium, low runoff fertiliser over the present and ever expanding dairy industry practices. Perhaps even more points for a tariff on imported high runoff fertilisers.
Thanks for your reply..on paper it makes sense to just about all parties involved...very little down side if any in the long run..good luck with your submission..
Looking for a quick plummet in CRP again. Last time support was 17c, it could easily hit that again.
I agree Moosie, you can't compare the enormous amount of environmental research that CRP have undertaken or rather that Trans Tasman have neglected.
If the good environmental folk at the EPA wanted to show who was boss, they probably now have got that out of their system. If anything, it probably provides for a positive bias for the next one.
if you upset the good people at kasm...the local iwi...the marlbourgh muscle farms...the maui dolfins and right down to the sunlight from disturbed sediment upsetting the phyto plankton ...getting past the good people at EEZ was not going to be easy when the only benefit to nz was money. as TTR found out........the Chattams on the other hand is further away ...deeper...no dolfins.....and the local iwi are keen and the environmental foot print for nz farming looks good....the phyto plankton might be a bit peeved but 99 out of 100 is not bad......still not a guarantee to get the license ...still not sure if todays refusal is good for the chattams or not
There's a lot of Orange Roughy down there -- I suppose they could put up a fight....
otherwise, yes, CRP has a much better chance of getting the required EEZ approval.
The Chatham rise rock phosphate due to it's natural physical properties will help reduce runoff into waterways and the phosphorus levels just like this.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Water-Care-re...1/Default.aspx
I would anticipate that many environmental groups may well support this marine consent application.
Not to mention the recreational users, fish and game, water sports groups, 100% pure tourist lobby, parks conversation groups, rural iwi, federated farmers, etc.
In years to come we may even see high runoff fertilisers disincentivised potentially leaving CRP quite well placed.
It will also help our country's trade balance since most rock phosphate is currently imported.
hi mac,have you read the EEZ report for TTS, its 100 pages of gobbldy gook sprinkled with a few quotes and rules and regulations and i was amazed when some mussel farm in the marlbourgh sounds was concerned that during La Nina weather patterns less muscells grew and they somehow assocsiated that with sediment in Taranaki.....BUT my biggest concern from investors point is its 100% or nothing...ie Big bucks if it comes off but zero return if not
The interesting think about risk is that folk including myself at times just initially look at consequence, when we really also need to consider likelihood and mitigations also.
And do you know Ziggy if you go back on this thread a year or so, you will see that I used to describe it as a binary risk, but the more I looked into it and researched the more I’ve realised it’s not like that.
Not all ventures are the same, they all have their own merits and drawbacks to be assessed and the EPA don’t just flip a coin, the likelihood of achieving an approval comes down to both the efficacy of the proposal, and how well the company have researched the environmental effects and have consulted with interested parties.
All things humans do affect the environment and each venture has to offer both economic prosperity and sufficient effort in mitigating the environmental effects.
I think CRP are in quite a unique position in that what they do in the ocean will indeed harm some creatures, however the environmental benefits the venture will bring on land IMO will out way those effects.
Add to that all the economic benefits to the New Zealand economy, to Chatham Islanders, and to New Zealanders generally, it all looks prospective to me.
I don't seem to recall the term "kicked off" being used very often during my LLM research in RMA law.
Alas, the EPA have "kicked off" the process, I see, according to the announcement? :eek2:
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/conte...4830&sn=Detail
It's been reported that the EPA investigation into CRP's application will take at least 6 months to complete. I won't be buying shares yet.
Yes Bob its sink or swim....like flipping a coin....it would appear the CRP have put at lot more work into there application....I think it will go ahead...
I was told by someone that used to work at p&M that the mining consent took so long to come through because a lot of information was missing and they had to continually chase CRP to get it. In fact the exact word he used to describe them was a "joke". This was clearly reported in a different light by CC.
Based on that and the inherent "porkies" I have been told by CC in the past, I wouldn't put a lot of trust or belief in him.
My view and it's based on real information.
I await the differing opinions