yeh
seriously considering adding more but maybe will wait to see if there are any upturns - I'm already here if there arent :D
Printable View
yeh
seriously considering adding more but maybe will wait to see if there are any upturns - I'm already here if there arent :D
i added to my core Eur shorts at 1.2596 and 1.2587
Closed my tiny short due to complete lack of activity for +2.5 ... yeehaa, about 6 hours before you went to bed Peat. - after 3am[xx(][xx(] you're certainly keen mate:D
Hows the day job?
Xerof
Spinny top morning:(
stopped out of mine
-15[B)]
Watching for a spike to 597 this hour,short on that.
Morning miner
Could be right
592 on my hourly chart;)
See how we go
Cheers
Slam
lol day jobs fine thx... [8D]
may have topped
there certainly seems to be good resistance just below 1.26
Peat, might see 12630 where I might.. sell
Xerof
Run up to 599 was strong,may go thru it?.
Xerof why 12630?,ta
Thru the half hour,looking longish.
if stops above 600 get run, should get to 25/30, but maybe not high enough to reach sell orders at 50 and above. See the chart I posted on TT (not mine - borrowed but has credibility), wave 4 should end in this area 650/700 maximum
Ok ta got to sign up for TT to have a look,fits with arco's usd/jpy post today.
U da man:DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Peat, might see 12630 where I might.. sell
Xerof
Good call Xerof
didn't wait for 30 - just as well as my platform high bid was 26, but sold a sliver at 18. Slipped a bit of GBP out at 18343 and sucked some USD/CHF in at 1.2247 (my platforms low offer - don't you just love it when that happens:D:D) Oh, and shorted NZD at 43 as well....[:p][:p]
Thinking that was the end of wave 4 for most pairings, but will have to wait and see. S/l's as usual
Xerof
but its not all beer and skittles - just for the record I stopped out of my 2 short kiwi's I had from Friday at 17 for small losses:(:(:(
Xerof
I feel EUR still has to correct higher.
My counting (if I am correct) shows the possibility
of a rise to circa 2695-2715 to complete minor wave
'iv' before reversing to fall lower.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...05252005ew.gif
Your thoughts?
arco
Arco,
Very clear chart thanks. I just think a deeper test of very recent lows is coming first - nothing too much but 1.25 area is too close a magnet for stop hunters. Just call it gut feel at this stage.
Your counts line up with others I have seen - 1.2700 area seems the ideal completion area for wave 4 on the weekly chart.
p.s. my Murphy book arrived yesterday - let the edgimucation begin[^][^] If you don't hear from me for a few days, I'm poring over charts......also bought Raghee Horners book out of interest - she has some interesting trading techniques - swing and breakout mainly.
www.raghee.com is the site (haven't been there yet myself, but will do so today)
cheers
Xerof
Arco,
Yesterday, TRL made the call to sell at 12615/30 level.
I just asked TRL for his chart interpretation - here it is:
Quote:
quote:Minor Wave IV/ (of larger Wave 3/ dating from 1.2990 peak) ended last Friday night at 1.2690) ... Minor Wave V/ of this larger 3rd is sub-dividing .... Wave i/ ended at 1.2535 ... Wave ii/ ended at 1.2630 last night (exact 61% retracement) which makes the current Outlook through to week’s end very interesting indeed.
regards
Xerof
Xerof
Which just goes to prove EW counts are quite subjective,
although I did have that plot in my mind as a possibility.
I will stick with my count until I see the outcome of
the next few days.
Are you basing your trading on McCleggs service?
arco
I am a subscriber and take his views into account as part of my overall positioning, but sometimes have gone against his calls - and won some, lost some as you might expect. His commentary is certainly an important part of the "Xerof mix", - call it a guiding influence
oh yeh:D
Peat, (and gold coast martin.....)
i take no credit
but i take the pips.
its well cooler to be able to predict it yourself
but c'est la vie.
and anyway at this stage I still hold my 4 mini shorts.... will keep them for the 1.24 or even lower. but at this stage its nice to see the pressure is still down
ok couldnt resist booking 2 of them at 1.2525
Ferengi rule of Acqusition No 1
A profit is a profit.
new lows for 2005 ....
With London and New York returning from holidays later in the session, traders were looking for fresh clues on direction from U.S. data including nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. "The French rejection had been widely priced in and the market has come to a reasonable level," said a dealer at a Japanese trust bank.
"It would take non-EU factors, notably U.S. economic indicators, as well as weak economic data out of the euro zone to put further pressure on the euro," he said.
More...........
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuot...t316143_newsml
Well, never trust dealers at Japanese Trust Banks I guessQuote:
quote:"the market has come to a reasonable level," said a dealer at a Japanese trust bank
Russian selling at 12340 earlier I'm told - weren't they the ones holding it above 12800????? No wonder they're bankrupt[8D][8D]
D: this is the one and only that I missed on way down - got stopped out on a tight stop last Friday -- at the highs -- of course[xx(][xx(]
Xerof
Obviously not worth reading that drivel.
As I have often said.....I don't take too
much notice of fundamental info.
I always follow this simple thought.....
The chart is King....long live the chart ;)
Just in case anyone has missed the news.......
Dutch say 'No' to EU constitution
Many Dutch are unhappy with the government and the economy
Voters in the Netherlands have overwhelmingly rejected the proposed European Union constitution.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4601439.stm
i didnt see the news but the charts already told me hahah
reduced my positions at just above and below the 1.22 level
looks like the retracement is occurring - it had to sooner or later.
i'll sit back with just the one open position now - let the dust settle for 24 hours i think. eat some food and drink some wine tonite.
this retracement took out my trailing stop at 1.2285 on the first time up but 1.2290 having been rejected 3 times this now begins to look like a level to re-enter short.
Open mouth, insert foot [:0]Quote:
quote:Italian Welfare Minister Maroni suggested it would be “better” if Italy readopted the lira again, a very controversial comment in light of the recent problems the European Union has had. The common currency dove to the $1.2230 level in mere minutes on this comment but was back just below the $1.2300 figure by the time U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May were released. The Italian comment was stinging because France and Holland this week voted to turn down the EU constitution. The European Commission reacted by confirming “the euro is forever.”
I would have thought portraying the Euro in a negative light by ANY European government Cabinet Member would be a major no no :D
Blair gives up on his EU dreamBy Melissa Kite, Toby Harnden and Tony Paterson
(Filed: 05/06/2005)
Tony Blair has given up on Europe as an issue worth fighting for, senior allies of the Prime Minister have told The Sunday Telegraph.
A leading Blairite cabinet minister made the admission last night as the European Union descended into deeper turmoil, with doubts surfacing over the future of the single currency.
Mr Blair, who will seek to shift the focus of his administration on to poverty in the Third World this week during talks with President Bush, has told his closest allies: "Africa is worth fighting for. Europe, in its present form, is not."
The signal is an astonishing U-turn for a leader who said three years ago that the euro was "our destiny" and who announced a British referendum by proclaiming: "Let the battle be joined." But one of his closest allies said that Mr Blair no longer believed that putting Britain at the heart of Europe could be his legacy: "Europe is back to the drawing board. Africa will become more important."
Mr Blair flies to Washington tomorrow to try to secure support for proposals to tackle poverty ahead of next month's G8 summit in Gleneagles. But the Prime Minister is unlikely to be able to divert attention completely from the chaos over Europe's future.
President Chirac of France and Germany's Chancellor Schröder held a summit in Berlin last night after the No votes in France and Holland on the constitution.
Yet the crisis widened beyond the document alone, with a media offensive being mounted to bolster the euro after German officials and an Italian minister openly discussed its possible demise. In the first rumblings of a call for the franc to be reinstated, Nicolas Dupont-Aignant, a member of Mr Chirac's ruling UMP party, said: "France, Italy and Germany would be in a better state without the euro. However, I don't believe we should ditch it now.
"But either it is reformed, and the central European Bank kick-starts growth by lowering interest rates and pursuing a more American-style monetary policy, or the euro will explode in mid-air."
The governor of France's central bank, however, rushed to the euro's defence. Christian Noyer said that the currency was "in no way under threat" following its fall in value since the No votes of the past seven days. He dismissed as "absurd" the idea of a temporary withdrawal from the euro by individual states.
"The euro is a solid currency which brings us a lasting guarantee of stable prices and thus the maintenance of purchasing power for our wages and savings," he told Le Parisien newspaper.
The markets have been slowly adjusting to the possibility of the break-up of the euro, with the spread between government bonds in different countries widening.
Last night, John Redwood, the leading eurosceptic Tory MP, said: "You can't have a single currency without a single government. They are in a mess because they have only done half of it and they are now discovering in a painful way what that means."
The No campaign in Britain will launch a campaign tomorrow demanding a referendum on any aspects of the constitution that leaders might attempt to salvage. It will also unveil 46 new business backers, including Stuart Rose, chief executive of Marks & Spencer.
An ICM poll for the No group found that 81 per cent of voters say that it would be unacceptable to bring in any of the proposals without a referendum in Britain first.
Additional reporting by Henry Samuel
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...equestid=22123
Funny old price action last night in EUR.
Threatened 1.2340/50 (post-payrolls high) which if cleared would have been quite positive for a retest of 1.2500. Failed at that level, and I doubt anyone really knows why we are now 100 pips lower. Reuters just reports the standard fluffy techncial selling line (read, no idea!).
Seems like we trace out a range in EUR prior to Greenspan testimony tonight, 1.2200-1.2290 should hold it until then.
Data has been soft recently, and if Greenspan fails to sound upbeat about the economy, I still favour a bounce from here. A retracement of larger degree is still well overdue.
Therefore find it difficult to be short EUR down at these levels - long with a stop below 1.2200 is the play at present for the next 48 hours.
Well I got stopped last night on Greenspan's more upbeat testimony. Notably the market has come back from those losses, and never really threatened the Jun 1st 1.2157 low.
So my inclination whilst the Jun 1st low holds is to be long off these levels. Short term traders are well long dollars now (IMM stats) and although on a med-term basis any recovery is an opportunity to sell, for the short term I favour a recovery, or at worst a range 1.2150-1.2350. The nice thing about being long here, is that stops are very well defined.
Quiet Friday data-wise ahead, the market most likely to drift within the range.
Morning All
Gann support currently holding at 2207.
Bearish Gartley targets have been met and
with some oscillators in minor divergence we
could see a retracement northward at this point.
An eventual move south may even see a continuation
to a full grown Butterfly, and if that were to be the
case then circa 1150 is not out of the question in the
longer term.
Long term positions still signaling to remain short,
with short term positions flat awaiting directional
indication.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern should give a short term
north bound move.
Long term the indication still looks to be south.
If you look at the 1hour chart over that last few days, imo we have now started another 5,3 pattern down.
So far we have had a 5 down, abc retrace and now on leg 1 down again.
Not so clear but looks the same on the GBP as well with abc complete and leg 1 complete.
Looks the same on 4 hour as well
Time will tell as always;)
Cheers
Slam
Slam
You must be finding that EW book interesting.
I've read it maybe 4 times over a period of years
and I'm still baffled in the shorter times periods.
Another of Prechters books is "At The Crest Of The
Tidal Wave". In that book he discusses the
"Point Of Recognition"
There is a point along the way in every bull (bear) market when investors suddenly seem to get the message. It always happens in the "third of third wave," the centerpoint of the entire structure.
And another little gem...........
"When the fifth of the fifth wave tops out, we need not ask why it has done so. Reality again, will be forced upon us. When the producers who are leeched upon disappear or are consumed, the leeches
who remain will have lost their life support system, and the laws of nature will have to be patiently re-learned."
(EWP, Frost & Prechter
You've seen me mention 1150 earlier.....now that seems
a long way down.....but it could happen.
arco
Thanks for that arco
Will look for those books.
I don't profess to know diddly about EW yet but practice makes perfect (or closer to it)
Really enjoying a little more knowledge to throw into the pot
Cheers
slam
Heres my EW count, which currently
shows EUR is due for a short term north move.
Also check out the nice divergence on the Osc.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...06252005ew.gif
arco
Overnight action has printed a Harami Cross reversal pattern.
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/images/bull/1117.gif
Pattern: reversal. Reliability: low
Identification
A long black day is followed by a Doji which gaps opposite the trend and is completely engulfed by the real body of the first day.
The Psychology
In a downtrend or within a pullback of an uptrend, a long black day occurs. The next day’s gap up comes as a surprise to the shorts who thought they were sitting on a great position the previous day. The stock closes where it opens to signify a churn day with neither the bulls nor bears showing much force after the opening gap up. Reliability of the bullish Harami Cross is low, so a strong following day is needed for confirmation.
Possible minor support at 1963
Eventual next target and major Gann support - 1718.
Nice double top for a trade,see if it keeps going?.
hi miner
sorry mate I owe you an email[:I]
cheers
slam
That you do;) ,to busy watching FX ay[8D],see if we keep going south on this one?.
Cheers
Miner
Here's a fundamental for you to sell EUR strength on[^][^]
XerofQuote:
quote:Seems Germany is about to admit that it is going to break the deficit rule imposed by the EU for the next three years. In Eichel's own words, "The state of Germany's finances is dramatic".
Morning All
So the figure I mentioned on 10.6 may not be
out of the question.
10.6 An eventual move south may even see a continuation
to a full grown Butterfly, and if that were to be the
case then circa 1150 is not out of the question in the
longer term.
Interesting to see the EUR has risen but the GBP
suffered a nasty fall.
Xerof fill me in with the fundamental reasons behind
that imbalance if you can?
Thanks
arco
Ahem, well from what I'm hearing there's a battle of the Titans going on in EUR, with rumored heavy defence of 1.20 from a certain party based in Omaha. Clearly their largest USD short position is against EUR, hence the other pairings are making the moves in the right direction but EUR is lagging. Looking for it to play catchup.....eventually
CAD is running with the USD rather than the high yielders for a change, but thats the Loonie for you
Xerof
Thank you kind sir for that very prompt
and knowledgeable reply.
Arco, you could give Warren a ring to confirm that:D:D
I thought eventually would take longer... but quite glad that it didntQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
EUR is lagging. Looking for it to play catchup.....eventually
Xerof
A very nice ride down... :D I closed flat for the weekend by 3am our time , and hit the clubs heheh.
It will be interesting to see if there will be a few hundred point correction at some stage. Do have to be wary for it I think. Far off targets such as parity are now getting mentioned more frequently tho.
Yes I took my short Eur/USD positions back in early 1.20's, it bounced a bit but didn't resell, only to see it collapsed in the last few hours of the week, when I was far from clubbing Peat:(:(.
The main man over on the other channel seems to have it all under control.
I personally think its now a sell at 1.2000/1.2050 if seen, for a real go at seeing if they can 'bottle' the man from Omaha now. 1.1665 is the holy grail I believe and it may be seen rather quickly. Then you might get the 400/500 pip bounce, maybe even back up as high as 1.27, then hard down to 110/111, before a nice long rally to 1.40/1.50 on a 12 month horizon. (fundamentals will surely have some say in this eventually)
But thats for the future - need to get short again and take it 100 pips at a time.[8D][8D]
Xerof
I just talked to his Mum and she says he'sQuote:
quote:Xerof - Arco, you could give Warren a ring to confirm that
very upset about something you said about
a dollar bill ( perhaps she said dollar
bull? - that Omaha drawl is very difficult
to understand).
Apparantly his Weetbix got all soggy from him
crying over breakfast. Sounded like shes said
he's run right out of issues.......
perhaps that should be tissues :D
I've suggested she should get him a book on
Butterflies and Bats for Christmas.
Hehe,
Perhaps she should buy him some USD for Christmas:D:D
GBP may be taking the EUR with it
As in north slam?.
imo yep:)
Hope so as gone long for a trade in part because EUR/JPY is looking good for north.
Going against the flow but managed to squeeze
30 pips out of a long trade last night btw 4-8pm.....
However, scaling in a few shorts at the moment.
Tight stop.
Good stuff Arco EUR/JPY ended up the better of the 2 though.
amazing spike last nite! got a lil burned by it , nothing too major.. had some extra sells scaled up thru the high 1.19's with stop loss on those entries at 1.2027 so yeh got sold and bought back without even being there hahah. Another example for me to note that set stop losses seem to lose one money. Better to be right sized in ones position and have flexibility.
I still have my original positions short on this pair tho.
Tight stops got triggered...only 20 pips
so no real damage done....
Fight to live another day ;)
Well, FWIW, I think we're finally seeing the wave 4 action that has been threatening for some time on the weekly chart, which should target 1.2300/50, then get ready for wave 5 action down to 1.16/1.15
Similar action for other major pairings.
I'm sidelined waiting and watching - GC Martins comments are noted regarding 1.2182, and respected, so will observe price action carefully later on tonight, in case we do see another 'early' turn
Xerof
in an upwards 5 wave movement wave 4 is often sideways trianglish
perhaps this will be as well...
As usual Peat, I'm very vague on my waves - just looking at Arco's last chart on previous page - its that wave iv I was referring to.
Don't know what the price action over recent days might have done to that picture, but seems a good possibility, subject to our flow mans confidence in 1.2182 level of course, that early 1.23's might be seen.
Nothing like a nice cleanout to get ready for a sell-off from a higher plane - means it should fall harder, especially in wave v
3's and 5's are the best to trade IMO
Pheeeew, Peat, still hanging in there? A tiny bit of upside slippage, but starting to look better for GC Martin's line in the sand. Might be a late night.....watching Titans at play
chuck another 5 billion at the bloody thing.....:D:D
i am xerof
this a a good learning experience
[B)]
Its called character building - all I can say is stick to your rules.
Inevitably when you don't, the market canes you mercilessly.
I've got a few welts on my back from yesterday from not entirely following my own rules (smacked like a red-headed step-son, as they say) but lived to fight another day
Xerof
i set a non movable stop to start scaling out at 1.2205 , i kinda wondered if the 00's would act as a barrier... which they have so far.Thing is tho, to me it really doesnt look like weakness can arrive soon. The buying is very solid.
haha as soon as I say that the trend line testing on the bottomside occurs, not that I mind.
very large sell oda hit market at 00 - US investy bank
well for some big players who were long 1.22 might seem like a bit of a reprieve given a 1.20 and falling situation...
It was a long on trend line break(hourly),usd/chf did the same as did eur/jpy(break on a few time charts and bounced of daily trend line),and eur/usd had a nice hammer on the 5min just as they were doing it.
Eur/usd and eur/jpy went same way usd/chf other so they confirmed the move with each other,pity me had no power last night tho.
Cheers
Miner
Double bottom on the 15 and 5 min to go with the hourly trend line break,worth a watch,although other 3 a tad messy.
May be seeing some back filling of the eye-watering, ball busting rally of last 48 hours, but still have a sneaky feeling we could yet see over 1.23 before we head south again.
Still waiting, watching for an entry point. Same with other pairings basically
Xerof
p.s. Arco, where are you? completing a chapter?:D:D
Was just thinking may have to wait for the big boys to come on for a bit of direction:Dnorth would be nice;).
Might have just been the turn?.
Two minds don't mix,medium mind said long trading mind and screens said short,end result[B)],so cup of tea CD on try again;).
Need something in that Tea miner[?];)
I've been off 2 minds today as well
Neither of them sane, so 70 odd pips later, might sit on hands.
Most against the USD need to go higher yet before next down
Cheers
Slam
Could be the problem that bit with me tea,bad tooth so smashed on 2 tramals at the mo,nup prob was broke my rule of trade off my screens with an empty mind relaxed and a CD on,had a few numbers and thoughts of other peoples in my head today,3 times thought going a certain way but didn't listen to that first thought.
Never mind back to my rules and back into it,blew this short so STOP regroup and no frustration trading.
I'm retreating at the moment .... lickin some near mortal battle wounds...
Me got well done over by this corrective rally pretty much ate me the whole way. and then reversed when I got out.... such are markets .... especially the kiwi shorts , I knew those would come back strong but I succumbed to fear , as earlier I succumbed to greed
Strange saying to have an empty mind for trading but yeh it makes good sense
Demo system for me for a little while to try and get courage back....
Have a good nite everyone - as one guy said on global-view I hope you made some of the pips I lost heheheh
Finished the Elliot Wave book now..... dont think they quite got their predictions right , but I guess theres still time for the Dow to hit 400 hahah
have day off work but it seems Tokyo is also on holiday so maybe market wont have much life till London?
have longed Eur twice already this morning for pip raids +20
for some reason last weeks burn has put me into mode:raid. trying to let mind go blank and read the chart...
good trades this week to all....
Nice little breakout trade there in the EUR 4 hour chart - it was right in the apex, so had to go with whatever direction it took - sold at 12050, took back at the fib 61.8 line at 12016
easy pips
MACD gave hint of direction of the breakout, being below zeroline, and can be used as confirmation of the trade.
Looks like fresh air between here and 11900, now that 618 fib has broken convincingly
Hope so,usd/jpy through can it hold usd/chf ok for opp way,eur/jpy slow to move so worth a watch..
Xerof where would you set a stop loss for the night on this one before good night kiwi time?.
Miner, well its a swing trade environment again, so I would be selling rallies, not selling right here.
Sell a rally to 12020, with a stop at 12055 would be my view from here
Xerof
Ta for thoughts but already short from a few hours back,got a stop on that at 2010,so might leave it at that see if I stay in.
Didn't first thought buy usd/jpy or usd/chf so been a wet paper bag night anyway,so time for bedybys try again in the morning,good luck if your doing the late shift tonight hehe.
Cheers
Miner
Hmmm, off that recommendation for a moment. Looks to me like market has priced in a good news speech from Greenspan tonite, and has taken some profit off the table already. May be more taken off if he 'only' comes in at expectation.
One leading commentator (from PIMCO) reckons FED will pause in August, which if Greenspan signals in tonites talkfest, would doubtless see an explosive upside move for EUR et al
I'm staying square until after his 'big brother uncut' show tomorrow morning
Xerof
wow - 1.2140 for a sell
I was actually long Eur from about 1.2070 area last nite coz thats what the indicators were telling me but had to close it out before sleep time coz I couldnt really trust it not to fall and, as is now seen any reasonable stop loss would have been hit. so yeh its annoying....
not seeing any posts from you Arco, is that because you are out in a market like this?
[North American FX Close] Greenspan's warning on a cooling in the housing sector led many players to believe the Fed is getting close to neutral.
Euro has just broken out of a triangle on hourly, but MACD not confirming yet. Aggressive trade would be to buy it now with stop and reverse at 12145, or wait until its above 12180, with MACD confirmation
Other alternative of course would be to sell it at 12145, being other side of triangle, with stop at 12175
Agressive trade mentioned would have stopped out for 25 pip loss. Short entry on downside escape would have made 90 so far.
I did neither - just testing the theories, but liking it - seems to work most times. Also spotted a beautiful triangle set-up on the GBP last night which ended up being good for 140 pips by NYK close. Again though it broke out to upside first, there was no MACD confirmation, and like EUR ended in a downside resolution