Not that I am comparing myself to Stanley Druckenmiller but I think he might be suggesting a recovery.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iv...-shaped-market
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Not that I am comparing myself to Stanley Druckenmiller but I think he might be suggesting a recovery.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iv...-shaped-market
Its been great advice for the last decade or so. Sadly I am not good at taking advice.
Correct not an economic recovery but a financial market recovery that he was too cautious on. Bill English was on the money months ago when he suggested people might question why asset prices are high when everything else is not so hot. He was right about the asset price disconnect but wrong that people might question why this is. Young people who should be caring are more concerned about George Floyds murder. It is not even a NZ issue. That said central bank tomfoolery is an international issue.
Recovery? I couldn't put it better than this article at Zero Hedge...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we...ng-goes-market
Always good to go back & read what you where thinking at the time.
Confirmation bias anyone?
Yes, that's a valid argument, but depends a lot on how active a trader you are, and whether you have access to short trading options ('scuse the pun).
For me it's not simply black/white, in or out of the market. I am not only long, and not only exposed to one sector or one market.
I'm also older, in 'capital preservation', rather than 'speculative' or even 'dollar-cost-average' mode, so if I can side-step a 20-30% drop in the markets, signalled by this seemingly irrational exuberance, I will.
For me, quick profits are secondary; asset protection comes first.
It’s all on like Donkey Kong!
(From Westport)
Yep DOW down nearly 1900 points.
And VIX bounced from 26 back up to 43!
This next week's going to be interesting, with triple witching on the 19th (Q2 options expiration). Looks like we won't have to wait for the next round of earnings (starting mid-July) to shake out the RobinHooders...
Now, how much of this will spread to the NZX...?
Damn when things looked a bit soft late yesterday I logged into ASB Securities made my buy order got to preview my order for BEAR.ASX then thought I don't really understand this so I didn't click OK.
Unfortunately my understanding is that BEAR will do pretty well today. As an aside ASB Securities said I couldn't place a buy order for BBOZ.asx online but gave me an 0800 number at which point I tried the apparently less risky BEAR.
Has anyone else come across this with BBOZ. What is the deal something so risky you need to talk to a broker first??
Coulda Woulda Shoulda. Possibly just a blip today in a recovery or a dead cat bounce?
My experience with bboz. You need to be in early and out fast on a hard falling market.
The pitfalls of leveraged investments like BBOZ are well discussed in this publication:
http://www.stockmarket.co.nz/iastart.htm
Click on the May 2019 issue which is free. Page 2 covers it well.
Thanks to all for the advice. Disappointed not to have bought BEAR but not distraught as it would have been dumb luck. With a new army of investors joining up to trade shares we could be back up again on Monday.
"Jim Cramer: A Zweig Wave Is One That's Definitively Worth Surfing"
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-...HOO&yptr=yahoo
Good read thanks. What with dont fight the fed or the tape and at your rear all these little Sharesies etc reef fish gobbling up volume i could quite happily step out of the sharemarkets but into what is the prob?
I'd be a lot happier riding the wave if it didn't feel so much like a tsunami! And it seems I'm not alone, given the VIX is still at 35 and, perhaps more importantly, the VVIX is at 140...!
Does anyone have a view on commodities. The US market is trading around 30 times multiple which is crazy, however commodities are at historic lows by comparison. Oil is in its bottom quartile by average which makes it appear cheap. Taking a 5 year view, it looks very attractive. Sugar has been testing all time lows. Some price discovery me thinks... anyone share the view?
I was looking at 3 of the big Aussie resource companies the other night BHP RIO and WPL and they all seem not unreasonably priced based on a standard equity valuation method. I interpret this as the mainstream view being bearish commodities (I'm not incl PM's here.)
Oil is so fraught politically that one needs to consider all those aspects of it. Who wouldve thought the Saudis would dump like that? So I am not sure if you can judge its price levels in terms of quartiles by average.