might be a slight bump in the road today.
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might be a slight bump in the road today.
Suppose the good thing about this falling market is the RB may leave interest rate low for a longer period.
Scary market.
yeh not to happy with happened over night! those nice gains i made yesterday will probably vanish, i cant see the market going much lower unless Portugal or Spain throw a spanner in the works over the next week or so
Here is some really good news to cheer you up :- We are right on target for the 19th.
The NZSX50 Index is exactly 43.3% of the way to the target.
Exactly 43.3% of the allocated time has elapsed.
Some would call this spooky..... Others wouldn't.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZSX520.gif
Phaedrus,
Thank you for the chart update.Power cut tonight,then when lights went back on, found one of the cats had been sick all over the bed,so your post was a nice bit of brightness.
Personally I think we are heading for another 27% or more decline.
[QUOTE=Phaedrus;305274]Here is some really good news to cheer you up :- We are right on target for the 19th.
The NZSX50 Index is exactly 43.3% of the way to the target.
Exactly 43.3% of the allocated time has elapsed.
Some would call this spooky..... Others wouldn't.[QUOTE]
Phaedrus I am in awe at your knowledge, and must find other reputations to add to before I can add to yours again.
I searched this thread out recently to determine our current position, decided to wait patiently for your timely update. Upon reading I recieve great solace, and suggest not so spooky for me...
Must add as a clarification, any point on the trend line will have equal proportions of rise/run (ie 43.3%)
If 43.3% is significant then I am showing my engineering knowledge is greater than my market knowledge.
As to the future, lets wait and see, or act and watch.
For my part a little more waiting then action...
V.
Excellent work VT. Well spotted! The entire thread is a spoof of course and 43.3% has no more significance than any other number. I added the "Others wouldn't" clause to cater for observant intelligent readers who know that the rise/run ratio is a constant.
If you ever want an update of this or any other chart, don't wait patiently - just ask.
nzx getting very close to a downside break of 6 mth odd sideways channel , Will it be black Monday.
ah Should have been black tues oh well i have tartget of 2800 now we have a break of channel this coincides with 61.8% fib so plenty down side to come.
Dow might break channel so implys 9800 or 266 pts down.
Headline in SMH this morning says $38 billion wiped off the value of the ASX yesterday .... yep A$38 billion just under NZ$50 billion ... and that went in one day
To put the NZX is perspective the market cap of the NZX is just over $50 billion .... and one more bad day ant it goes under $50 billion ..... the value gone in bad day in OZ would wipe out the NZX
Prob thats why you cant get any shares to buy Belg .... nobody interested in the NZX these days .... and its all TEL and FBU fault
P
Is it spooky that within a week of the word 'spoof' being posted in this thread that all has gone quiet?
How do we look currently against the possible outcome of the prediction?
V.
"Possible" outcome VT?
Have you lost your faith?
The Index is still on track, well within its prescribed parameters and less than 4% away from the centreline.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZSX626.gif
Good man, YK. I am touched by your unswerving faith. It worries me, though, that some people don't seem to realise that this chart is meant only as an approximate guide. As I have repeatedly stated, the 4332 target could be hit anytime between 1.12pm and 3.18pm on the 19th.
Personally, I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. I have invested all available funds in Krugerrands, the bunker is almost finished and my stocks of food, water, arms and ammunition are in place. I bought a street-sweeper last week. In some strange way, I'll be disappointed if all these preparations prove to be needless.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZSX718.gif
NZSX50 - Good News...sure is..The Bull market returns
Broken through 3075 primary resistance last week with a gap upward break on the 2 September...the bulls are back:t_up:.
NZX50 as joined the Asians (except Japan) following the leading index Shanghai.
We are a week at least ahead of the Aussis The All Ords could break their primary resistance today and go bull ..aussis eat ya heart out.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...5006092010.png
Strat, the location of my bunker must remain a tightly guarded secret, but no, it is not in Mapua.
Tricha has warned us that Peak Oil will lead to Economic Collapse, Cities abandoned and inevitable Starvation as Oil runs out.
We are facing a complete breakdown of social order and Tricha wisely observes that we "will have to do different to survive". Indeed we will. I hope never to be in the position of having to defend my bunker with lethal force, but if needs must, I am ready - with my StreetSweeper.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...eetsweeper.gif
Aaah Phaedrus. I can see now why you didnt go with the Zamboni.
Im ready. Mind you I like the look of one of these better.
never runs out of bullets
never rusts
Quiet
lol, thats very 1985 Yankiwi so a bit young for my taste :lol:
Guitars aint weapons. They are to be loved.
Hitting someone with your axe would be akin to slapping someone about with your wife, girlfriend or children.:p besides, I hear Hoop can take an eye out at 1000 yards with his ballpoint so no match for that.
That street sweeper looked rather suited to a career in armed hold ups
I thought I would wait until something unexpected happened, YK. I got bored with posting the same old same old "normal" chart week after week.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZSX914.gif
I now regret revealing my preparations for the coming apocalypse. All too often visionaries are perceived as cranks. As I have previously explained, my approach is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I have always classed myself as a cynical idealist.
Well-read habitues of this forum will be familiar with this quote from F. Scott Fitzgerald :- “The true test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two contradictory ideas at the same time and still function.”
The question is, of course, am I am functioning? I shall make some enquiries.
Riiiiipper of a week with lots of special crossings at the close.Someones buying up ?????
Days trading results
NZ Refining 3.800 0.400 11.76 %
PPL Pumpkin Patch 1.980 0.140 7.60 %
RAK Rakon Limited 1.230 0.060 5.12 %
NZO New Zealand Oil & Gas 1.310 0.060 4.80 %
EBO Ebos Group 7.000 0.230 3.39 %
KFL Kingfish Limited 0.9300 0.0300 3.33 %
RNS Renaissance Corporation Ltd 0.3100 0.0100 3.33 %
SPY Smartpay 0.0330 0.0010 3.12 %
CAV Cavalier Corp 3.000 0.090 3.09 %
GPG Guinness Peat Group Plc 0.6700 0.0200 3.07 %
WDT Wellington Drive Technologies 0.0850 0.0020 2.40 %
HBYRA RIGHTS 0.4810 0.0110 2.34 %
KIP Kiwi Income Property Trust 0.9900 0.0200 2.06 %
RBD Restaurant Brands NZ 2.490 0.050 2.04 %
FPH Fisher and Paykel Healthcare 3.010 0.060 2.03 %
FBU Fletcher Building 8.470 0.140 1.68 %
IMP ING Medical Properties Trust 1.290 0.020 1.57 %
APT AMP NZ Office Trust 0.7500 0.0100 1.35 %
WHS The Warehouse Group 3.800 0.050 1.33 %
DNZ ORDINARY
How much affect will EQC have when they have to sell up to pay out all the Christchurch claims?
Nil. They hold around $5 billion cash, and from what I remember JK saying, all of their equities are overseas. This makes sense, as it would adversely effect NZ if they had to liquidate quickly, and the fact a major earthquake could put a dampener on the economy too (think Wellington).
All up they have around $15 billion in assets, which is quite impressive given the commission was only set up in the 90's.
I thought I saw or heard a report to the effect that the EQC doesn't hold any NZ equities?
At least one radio news comment I heard suggested they would sell overseas shares and investments ...
I have no personal or other knowledge on this subject ...
PS While I was typing this two other posters expressed similar views
EQC net assets are $5.5 billion. From the PGC thread what I posted a week or so ago
Quote:
You will pleased to know mouse that EQC don't have any NZ shares
Accounts for 2009 said they had $3.8 billion of Govt Stock and related stuff , $0.25 billion of NZ bank Securities and $1.7 billion of overseas equities.
No NZ stuff because the total market is only $50 billion and the Govt may as well leave that to ACC .... and whats the point of investing in stuff that has a possibility of taking a hot from a series of disasters
Ahh maybe John Key had it wrong when I was listening to him the day or two after the earthquake...or maybe I was too shaken up to listen properly!
The point is, there will be no net effect on the NZ stockmarket.
Edit. I just checked eqc website. I'm sure I heard JK say it was set up in the 90's....here the website says 1945. I think the interview was with Paul Holmes, but I can't be sure, as he had heaps of interviews!
John Key said EQC had 15 billion in the news-I clearly remember that. Some Aussie stocks in the sell list??
Appears Mr Key was misinformed. 1994 was when treasury started doing projectons, apparently.Quote:
Q+A: Interview with John Key
PAUL But then you add the two billion in, or possibly the two billion. I mean have you got that money, can we afford that. I know the South Canterbury money was set aside.
JOHN Yes in the case of EQC, so the Earthquake Commission has enormous funds, 15 billion dollars, largely invested offshore very logically, because of course if there is an earthquake you don't want those funds invested in the country that's affected. They have about six billion in cash. So this is well and truly affordable from that perspective. The real issue actually will come not so much to those people, because they're covered to the first 100,000 and beyond that from their private insurance. It's the five or ten percent of people that don't have insurance that have said look I'll risk it, and in fact I met a couple yesterday in Christchurch who said look our insurance policy ran out four weeks ago. And that's the moral hazard for the government, because on the one hand if we pay everybody out, why would people take insurance. On the other hand you're gonna have people with real hardship and deprivation, and it's getting that balancing act right. It's not going to be easy.
Sorry to put you guys wrong at the start....it was from a good source :)
EQC last annual report .... pretty pictures .... and now we know where a lot of our insurance money has gone ... and no doubt premiums to go up to build up the reserves for the Wgtn quake
http://www.eqc.govt.nz/downloads/ar-...rt-2008-09.pdf
EQC has re-insurance just like the commercial providers albeit from a much higher level.
Also re future costs I'll doubt you will notice much:Quote:
EQC chief financial officer Phillip Jacques said it would gradually be selling assets, such as global equities to pay for the first $1.5b of claims, before its $2.5b reinsurance kicked-in.
Quote:
The concept of insurance is about sharing and spreading losses. In this earthquake the losses suffered by around 100,000 households and probably 50-60,000 businesses will be shared with all of those taking insurance in New Zealand and around the world.
New Zealand is seen as part of the Australasian insurance market and therefore we tend to have events in Australia impact on our cost of buying global reinsurance.
But insurance is based on the expected cost, expected risk and number of people paying.
The Chch earthquake was unexpected so fell outside the insurance calculation so there will need to be some catchup. But given the number of people contributing, the extra burden shouldn't be that great on the individual level.
Study backs up hallowed traders' whim
GREG NINNESS - Sunday Star Times Last updated 05:00 31/10/2010
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http://static2.stuff.co.nz/1288338374/871/4288871.jpg
It seems you can't go wrong if you buy after Halloween and sell in May, leaving your money on term deposit in between.
Tomorrow might be a good time to buy shares according to new research which confirms the effect of the "Halloween Indicator".
The indicator is a long-held theory among share traders that share prices start to rise in November and begin to fall back in in May, leading to the maxim you should buy after Halloween and sell in May, leaving your money on term deposit in between.
Research undertaken by Professor Ben Jacobsen and PhD student Cherry Zhang from Massey University's School of Economics and Finance, suggests the theory is true.
The pair looked at monthly data from the UK stock exchange going back to 1693 as part of a project to look at long-term seasonal influences on share prices, and found that prices do tend to rise in November and fall from May.
Jacobsen has also been studying data from this country which suggested the New Zealand market had been following the same trend since 1998, something he attributed to the increasing integration of the world's financial markets. He had followed the theory when investing himself and had achieved good returns, he said. "An investor with an investment horizon of five years would have remarkable odds of beating the market 80% of the time, with returns, excluding dividends, on average three times higher than the market, if they followed the theory," he said.
"With an investment horizon of 10 years, the historical odds increase to 90%."
Jacobsen and Zhang have published their findings on the Social Science Research Network.
Hoop
You'll love Chart of the Day today
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20101029.htm?T
Compelling eh .... sell in may and come back in October works ... on the US markets anyway
Nearly ALL the gains on the US markets have been made thru winter .... spooky eh
Is this going to become a self fulfilling prophesy?
I don't have NZSX50 data going back as far as 1693, but here is a study of the 8 year period covered in this thread.
The chart below compares the capital gains accrued by the "May/October" system with (i) doing nothing (Buy and Hold), (ii) the usual 200 day Moving average and (iii) trading the Market Strength Indicator as discussed in the NZSX50 thread.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...sPB/MaySep.gif
In any case, surely once you incorporate trading costs the case to try and time the markets becomes less compelling? Plus that way you don't feel like a sheep.
Of course your not going to get above average returns, when the period you cover is explicitly mentioned as not producing above average results.
Quote:
there are some noteworthy periods during which the Halloween indicator didn't produce (e.g. during the oil embargo of 1973-74, the dot-com bust of 2000-01, and the financial meltdown of 2007-2009), the overall out performance is compelling.
Brokerage of 0.2% on 8 - 12 trades spread over 8 years is a trifling sum, but nevertheless it has been incorporated into the above chart. The 2 trading systems plotted there doubled and tripled the returns gained by simply buying and holding. I can't conceive of a more compelling example of the case FOR trying to time the market!
Generally speaking, I think you will find that it is the sheeple that "buy and hold" regardless of overall market direction. They have been told that "it's time in the market that counts, not timing the market" - and unfortunately they believe it. They don't know how to time the market and think that it is impossible anyhow.
The aim is to make money, JayPe. Don't let your feelings get in the way of that.
Does your chart include
cost of trading software?
cost of data?
33% capital gains tax on any profits?
Dividends which the buy and holders would of recieved?
Time spent monitoring investments?
Is eight years really a long term chart?
Ratkin, that chart was set up to evaluate the worth of the "Halloween" TRADING SYSTEM and to compare its results with those of other approaches. It wasn't as good as "buying and holding" but plenty of systems are way, way better.
Quote "there are some noteworthy periods during which the Halloween indicator didn't produce (e.g. during the oil embargo of 1973-74, the dot-com bust of 2000-01, and the financial meltdown of 2007-2009), the overall out performance is compelling" In short, they are saying that the Halloween indicator worked really well - except when it didn't!
But, Mr Needs, the Halloween indicator never produced above average returns. Right from the get-go it lagged well behind the market average returns of simply buying and holding. Take another look at the red plot in the chart. Well before the meltdown, it had only made about half the gains of simply buying and holding - and those guys talk about "compelling overall out performance"!!!
Halloween Indicator:
One popular system many people discuss is the “Sell in May and Go Away” (also known as the Halloween Indicator) strategy. The system simply invests in the stock market from November – April, then moves to cash from May – October. This strategy popularized by Yale Hirsh (who writes the informative and entertaining Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011), has its origins in the U.K. market as far back as 1935 (see must read paper “Are Monthly Seasonals Real?“).
The paper finds very strong evidence of abnormal performance in the UK since the 1600s, and Bouman and Jacobson (2002) find that the strategy works in 36 of the 37 countries they tested.
When we look back over the history of the NZSX50 Index, Q3 (July/August/September) is way ahead of the other 3 quarters. This explains the abysmal performance of the "Halloween" indicator (Buy in November, Sell in May) - it has you out of the market over its most profitable quarter.
As applied to NZ stocks, this "indicator" is devoid of meaning and totally worthless. It may have worked well hundreds of years ago in the UK and perhaps it still works well in the Northern hemisphere - but down here in NZ, over the period covered by the NZSX50 Index, it has been a resounding failure.
It surely does - but the facts refute both the study and the theory it purports to evaluate.
Jacobsen and Zhang "looked at monthly data from the UK stock exchange to look at seasonal influences on share prices, and found that prices do tend to rise in November and fall from May.......... data from this country suggested the New Zealand market had been following the same trend since 1998".
Since the seasons are reversed here, if NZ was following the original hypothesis of seasonal influence, then it could not be expected to be "following the same (monthly) trend" as well and the Halloween indicator "rules" would not be applicable here.
When testing the "Halloween" indicator, I began to realise that paying a reasonable rate of interest whenever money was out of the market tended to obscure the true performance of the indicator in question. Losses incurred by a poor indicator that happened to be out of the market for extended periods of time tended to be obscured by the addition of significant sums of compounding interest dragging it up to an almost acceptable level of return. Time spent out of the market was not evaluated and so there were no repercussions if the indicator "got it wrong" by being out of a rising market.
A better way of evaluating systems is to sell and go Short on any sell signals. This has the effect of magnifying the inherent strengths and weaknesses that are part of every system. You are in the market (either Short or Long) at all times - get it wrong and you are punished. There is no 6% compensation to hide your mistakes and make lousy systems appear better than they really are. The chart below shows the combined financial results of trading the market from both long and short sides. The "Halloween" system gives a net loss over the 8 year "investment" period charted here. You think that drops the boot into it? Wait till you hear this! Acting contrary to "Halloween Indicator" signals by going long in May and Short in November made no difference at all! The result was a loss of much the same magnitude. Completely inverting this "indicator" changes..... nothing!!!
The conclusion is inescapable - in NZ, over the period covered by the NZSX50 Index, the Halloween indicator has proved to be worse than useless and totally devoid of meaning.
So, is there any merit at all in systems of this type?
Yes there is - take a look at the chart below.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t.../Hallow112.gif
Thanks Phaedrus in correcting the Halloween post I posted.. I didn't follow up and check the NZX50 part..Another example that we should not trust the media..after telling everyone not to on ST I go and do it myself :( Too quick to believe as I find the Social Science Research Network as a valuable source of information, I failed to check the research paper out myself and trusted the writings from this Journalist GREG NINNESS from the Sunday Star Times instead.
Jacobsen and Zhang have published their findings on the Social Science Research Network This is the link http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1697861
Click on the one click download at the top of the webpage
I haven't time to read it today but I briefly skimmed over it and Nowhere could I see any reference to the NZX.
Back to today NZSX50 - Good News ..the market index is currently at 3332 trading as high as 3337.5 which was above the closing day high of 3335.5 back in April 14 2010 which happened to be the highest closing day point since the March 2009 bottom.
The highest intraday high since the March 2009 bottom was 3348.7 recorded on the next day the 15 April.
Phaedrus, it looks to me like we're still just tracking above the -7% line. Can you confirm or deny please?
Cheers, Roger
Fear not, Roger.
The Index is still nicely on track, well within its prescribed parameters and less than 3% away from the centreline.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...B/NZSX1112.jpg
Thanks for that Phaedrus. It's looking better than I thought. Pity it's not my shares that are doing the improving...:(
Relationship between Directional movement indicator and the NZX50 trend and R&S lines
I used the weekly rather than daily to filter out the noise.
Its been a rather useful correlation during the recovery phase from the March 2009 bottom.
Of special interest is the latest DM sell signal which suprisingly has not been confirmed (yet?). ..so all eyes is on that 3220 weekly support level.
Another player is the bullish squeezing of the primary uptrend line against the 3320 weekly primary resistance line. The NZX50 has failed 3 times to break it and with the present -ve DM it will have to go +ve before the index has another attempt, which if the correlation is still true may take a little while yet.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2010weekly.png
the most recent posts on the SKT thread by Hoop and I probably belong on this thread ... I don't know how to quote across threads.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post330493
Is this sell off something that normally happens at year end as overseas funds take their money out pre Christmas so they dont get caught post Christmas trying to exit on low liquidity as everyone in NZ is at the beach?
It could be a good signal for January, as those funds buy back in having confirmed that the world hasn't collapsed over the new year.
CJ, take a long, hard, careful look at the chart in post #182. The answers to your questions are right there.
Hmmmm that interesting P
I notice on your chart182 that there isn't a never sell line but I guess it would end around the $16500 mark is that correct P?.
If that's the case then buy the NZ50 index on 1 Jan and sell 1 March must be a shocking loss scenario...I know its never that great to invest around the summer holiday time but is the odds really that bad?? It would be interesting to see if its not too much trouble for you Phaedrus.
INteresting, I remember from ages ago something about the 'janurary effect'. Cant remember if it applied to NZ but I think there were good gains in Janurary in most years. That would suggest that sell at the end of Janurary makes sense to lock in that increase.
If that is the case (I am not good at reading charts) what is the cause. Is if funds buying up in Jan and having to overpay to get the shares they want. ONce they have their positions, there is a lack of buyers hence stay out in Feb as prices easy off. ????
Quote:
Is this sell off something that normally happens at year end as overseas funds take their money out pre Christmas so they dont get caught post Christmas trying to exit on low liquidity as everyone in NZ is at the beach?
I guess the answer to CJ's hypothesis is no then. I have had a look at my own charts and can't find any confirmation of a change in trend based on this obv drop.Quote:
CJ, take a long, hard, careful look at the chart in post #182. The answers to your questions are right there.
I have now added a "Buy and Hold" plot just for you, Hoop. It's not so hot is it? Of course we both already knew that would be the case!
It is pretty bad. As the "opposite" of the most profitable monthly timing strategy, it had to be the worst, of course. Is the actual loss really that bad? No, not really. Do keep in mind here that this test involved going Short whenever you were not long so that the comparative efficacy of each of these options was enhanced (ie exaggerated). So, for that worst example, you were Short the Index for 10 months of every year. Of course, by going long only, a modest profit would have been made over the 8 years of the test. The actual profit is $762 - that's from investing $10,000 for 8 years. Gains don't come much more modest than that!!
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZX1219.gif
Don't panic Belg ..the NZSX50 - Good News is you're safe, the NZX is closed on the 3rd
NZX Trading hours
EDIT: thxs P
I see PRC leaving the index at zero looks to have knocked another 18 points off it. Back to hugging the bottom trend line? Going to be hard to stay in P's magic range if the market goes down between Jan and March. Better have a decent rally before 31st Dec! :)
Hi Belg ...I expect there is a good chance of that very strong resistance 3333 level will be broken shortly...This could be a rounded bottom in progress and a break out above the 3333 will confirm it
Rounded bottoms during a bull market can occur after a very good rise up and the market then takes an extended lengthy breather (catch up) before rising again. The breather could be months or a year or so, therefore using a long term period and weekly scale tends to show up these type of formations much better than using a daily scale chart which could produce "noise" and mask the formation. However this time around the NZX50 rounded bottom is easily seen on a daily scale chart.
I have added a weekly scale chart below which so far shows the possible rounded bottom formation, and it seems to fit the criteria that Bulkowski mentions...it has an additional right hand handle forming as well which is nice as it shows the distinct end of the rounded bottom formation, so we don't have to guess the end rim and it adds confirmation that we do indeed have a rounded bottom formation.
The breakout of this formation occurs at the distinct end of the right hand lip (rim) or in this case where the handle is which just happens to coincide with that long term 3333 resistance level.
If the NZX50 index breaks upward above the right hand handle (and above 3333) the target until the next correction is approximately 3710. This is spookly close to the 3700 (3680) resistance level.
The chance of failure after an upward break is low (5%)
Note not on chart ...the next small long term resistance level (3400) above the right hand rim/handle should be made aware of as a slight potential threat....I didn't think it was worth putting on the chart
Target price = lip + (lip - lowest point of the rounded bottom) ....... Target Price 3710 = 3330 + (3330 - 2950) There is a 57% chance on meeting this 3710 target price (Bulkowski)
So now we will wait and see what happens..eh:)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...0107012011.png
Here is a chart that compares signals from 6 separate indicators :-
Relative Momentum Index
Relative Strength Index
Slow Stochastic Oscillator
Directional Movement Indicator
Exponential Moving Average
Market Strength Indicator.
In spite of their very different formulae, these indicators have been giving virtually identical signals.
Why use such "medium-term" indicators at all? Because they give good early warning of any incipient weakness developing, getting you out of the market earlier than long-term indicators when the market weakens, and getting you back in again earlier than long-term indicators.
It is easy to see that none are anywhere near indicating a need for caution.
In the immortal words of Alfred E. Newman, What? me worry???
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...sPB/NZ5019.gif
phaedrus,
Happy new year to you.Thank you for the chart and your comments.
Feel a lot more at ease with Alfred E.Newman's sage advice.! Thank you.
50% Fib is 3377 ...... hey we are half way back to high of a few years ago
Will Natures forces relent and get us through this barrier ... all good news if it does .... but Nature seems to be pretty angry at the moment so we might have to wait a while
You reckon we have to wait a while even after a major S&R (resistance 3333) break out......Winner you sound pessimistic:mellow:
Charts look OK ..P's charts are Green...Even the old school investor using P&F Pattern charts would be happy with yesterdays result.
Both Aords and NZx50 showed an ascending triple tops breakout (3371 NZX50) triggering a trading buy signal.
Even Charlie Dow if he was still alive would be "in" today boots and all.:)
NZ50 P&F Pattern
AOrd P&F Pattern
No Hoop ... `just wondering if Nature will play its part and let the markets continue to boom .... just he/she has been rather destructive lately like telling us we have been bad and we need to pull our heads in again and be good.
Whatever there's a full moon next Thursday so that might be the day for the breakout
Maybe everyone is waiting to see if the world will end in March 2011. :lol:
Some nut case thinks the world is going to end in March, but apparently the same nut also said the world was going to end in the 1990s. I don't think you need to worry too much winner. ;)
It's 2012 you have to watch out for (December 21).
Ok, so 1st April - BUY if we're still here. December 20th - SELL unless you believe, in which case you won't care.
Get the word out, rampant bull market for about nine months!
DON'T DO IT, WB!
Such a proposed timing system has, historically, been disastrous, making only about HALF as much as simply "Buying and Holding". (Not that that is recommended, of course!)
I just pray that I have caught you in time, before you cashed up as some others have already done.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZSX114.gif
Yes, there is a big difference. It is largely explained by the fact that March is one of our very best months and to be out of the market at such boom times incurs a heavy penalty.
The figures in the above chart are derived from trading Long only, so they are not directly comparable with those of post #182 which plotted the combined profits of Long and Short trades.
I reckon 3377 is the 50% Fib level - the level where the market is exactly half way back to its highs of a few years ago
Yippee ... we have finally made it ..... and it's Super Bowl time so might need to find a pub with some Steelers fans in it to chair the boys home
The TA question ... is 3377 resistance and there will be another day to celebrate or is 3377 the new support as we start the spurt back to where the NZX once was
Bugger .... below that 3377 (if I was a real guru would have to say that 'critical' 3377 mark) and in need a few decent days to go up to 3400 where one would feel a bit safer eh
Just need another good day from FBU (like the other day that shot the NZX50 way above 3377) or maybe TEL might have another recovery
No need to worry ... currently just in the range of the margin of error .... the market will continue to rise and wont be less than waht is today (as 3377 become support) for a year or say
Just liek the Aussie are getting excited with the All Ords going above 5000 .... might create a bit of momentum seeing the likes of Oliver are all spruiking 5500 now
A big, early Christmas spend-up eh!
On Stocks or Stockings?
Investments or Indulgences?
Portfolios or Presents?
Shares or Shopping?
Gold or Gifts?
Commodities or Confectionery?
Trading or Tradition?
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZSX429.gif
These figures (and the 20% pa) are simply copied across from the last Bull market, as per the chart.
The target date is when the NZSX50 "ought" to regain its 2007 peaks.
Would some kind person know or direct me to where I may find what companies that are the next ten after the NZSX50
Hi Belgarion, I think the answer might be "does not compute" "insufficient data" or similar. Has the grey line turned to red yet? If so, wait for OGC to be included on the NZX50, with a bit of optimism we may be able to give it a rocket in the other direction.
Sure Belg, see chart lower RH corner.
Now now Belg, you should know that buying dips is very risky behaviour. Look what happened to all the mug-punters who were "buying the dips" in 2008! Remember this timeless wisdom :- Man buying falling market soon be wishing he hadn't. Man buying rising market very pleased he waited.
Just in case my fancy indicators are too active for your tastes, Belg, you might like to note that the Index is still above its 200 day moving average and is also still above its longterm (2+ years) confirmed trendline.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/NZSX627.gif
Hmmmm...A channel break out about the time he cashed up and left the building. So far that was a smart "tongue in cheek" move..eh Belg ;)
Wow ... ASX up nearly 3% today ... DOW futures up for tonite
and now we are the world champions the punters in the street (ie consumers) will be happy .... the economy is fixed ... instos will be on a high .... and buying buying buying tomorrow
Maybe a +5% day?
Is a good day ... ALF is leading the way and up 33% ... just in time for Lizards competition update ha ha
Maybe it's not capitulation, just lack of interest.
I'm waiting for the really negative mood before I call "capitulation"!
does 'capitulation' have a technical meaning that I don't know about?
Do tell -- I'd like to know when to start looking for a buy...