I almost regret selling out of PGW @ 52c to invest in NZR ... almost ...
If only I had enough cash to invest in both :)
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Investor Radar: Taking a Closer Look at PGG Wrightson Limited (NZSE:PGW)
Active investors may be taking a second look at shares of PGG Wrightson Limited (NZSE:PGW). Checking in on some levels, the six month price index is currently at 1.24389. The six month price index is measured by dividing the current share price by the share price six months ago. A ratio above one indicates an increase in the stock price over the six month time frame. A ratio under one signals that the price has lowered over that same time frame.
We can also take a look at some stock volatility data on shares of PGG Wrightson Limited (NZSE:PGW). The 12 month volatility is currently 22.729400. The 6 month volatility is noted at 34.641200, and the 3 month is recorded at 27.657300. When following the volatility of a stock, investors may be challenged with trying to decipher the correct combination of risk-reward to help maximize returns. As with any strategy, it is important to carefully consider risk and other market factors that might be in play when examining stock volatility levels.
Investors may be looking at the Piotroski F-Score when doing value analysis. The F-Score was developed to help find company stocks that have solid fundamentals, and to separate out weaker companies. Piotroski’s F-Score uses nine tests based on company financial statements. PGG Wrightson Limited (NZSE:PGW) currently has a Piotroski F-Score of 6. One point is given for piece of criteria that is met. Typically, a stock with a high score of 8 or 9 would be seen as strong, and a stock scoring on the lower end between 0 and 2 would be viewed as weaker.
Shifting gears, PGG Wrightson Limited (NZSE:PGW) has an FCF quality score of 0.536985. The free quality score helps estimate the stability of free cash flow. FCF quality is calculated as the 12 ltm cash flow per share over the average of the cash flow numbers. When reviewing this score, it is generally thought that the lower the ratio, the better. Presently, PGG Wrightson Limited has an FCF score of -0.372957. The FCF score is determined by merging free cash flow stability with free cash flow growth. In general, a higher FCF score value would represent high free cash flow growth. Monitoring FCF information may help provide some excellent insight on the financial health of a specific company.
Investors might want to take a look at shares of PGG Wrightson Limited (NZSE:PGW) from a different angle. Let’s take a peek at the current Q.i. (Liquidity) Value. PGG Wrightson Limited (NZSE:PGW) has a Q.i. value of 12.00000. This value ranks stocks using EBITDA yield, FCF yield, earnings yield and liquidity ratios. The Q.i. value may help identify companies that are undervalued. A larger value would indicate low turnover and a higher chance of shares being priced incorrectly. A lower value may show larger traded value meaning more sell-side analysts may track the company leading to a lesser chance that shares are priced improperly.
http://marionbusinessdaily.com/inves...nzsepgw/83022/
OMG -PGW has an FCF score of -0.372957.
The worlds gone made
Thanks Agrarinvestor. Its good to start the day with a good laugh.
Sorry. I have not read the complete article. At the moment i have other problems. I'm heavily invested in Agria and they are delisted.
The company doesn't share information with us. We have wrote tons of emails but they responded with useless information.
We understand that the situation is difficult, but we can not understand why Adam Lai is not discussing with us the opportunities we have.
PGW and Agria shareholders have one thing in common. We are minority shareholders and Adam Lai has a lot of power about our investment.
I hope that you can agree on the following:
It is important that Adam Lai is showing good will that he is fair to minority shareholders. At the moment we are seeking support at leading NZ media. It is not acceptable that Chinese CEO's ignore minority shareholders interests.
The conference call next week is a good opportunity to raise that question.
Is there someone on the board who can help me and address this question during the call?
If i can change back time i would have listen to you and bought PGW directly and not via Agria. Shame on me.
emphasis added
This is a note to myself as much as anyone else. The thought occurred to me reading the Snoopy etc exchanges in the Heartland thread, and was reinforced by your comment above Agrarinvestor.
Important to be well diversified, with not to much in any one company, and maybe sector. Without trying to hard, most of my holdings are in the 3-6 % area of my total portfolio. One (HBL) has grown to ~ 13%, And I certainly don't want it to get much bigger (although I don't want it to stop growing either) So if anyone of them fails or strikes trouble....I am not going to be immediately out on the streets. I am considering whether to sell some HBL.
Good luck getting resolution A.......I have PGW...2% of my portfolio,
Cheers
RTM
I think the impact for PGW shareholders is not material, but it should be of concern. The big question here is how much care will
Alain Lai take if he has the chance to fool investors to gain an advantage.
The company is not sharing with us the information about what they want to do with our ADS.
If Agria is fooling the shareholders of Agria, the same thing can happen with you.
But I have still hope. The fact that PGW is such a fine company, and that New Zealand is an important market for China
should help.
Interesting - markets seem to be pretty certain about PGW's value - share price bouncing now for more than a week between the 54 and 55 cent mark, and for more than one month between 53 and 55.
Results announcement tomorrow. So what do we think? Will it be a stellar result (as the markets seem to expect) - or is it more likely that the results are at the lower boundary due to PGW noticing (similar to SKL) that farmers are using their increased income first to pay back debts? I guess agriculture overall doing quite well, question is just how the farmers spend their money.
Personally not sure I expect an outrageous result ... but than, the outlook might be really bright.
BP I think it will be an outrageous result
After all the worlds gone mad and pushed the PGW share price up to multi year high.
Bugger used that word push ....go Pushpay
Outrageous. I think they are inline.
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-89.html
All prices for fertilizers are up thats good.
Prices for wheat are stable and it looks like a positive uptrend.
http://www.finanzen.net/rohstoffe/weizenpreis/Chart
Do you have such charts available in New Zealand?
Are Farmers available that can say something about spending for 2017?
Outrageous result?
Operating Ebitda down heaps in H1 but some recovery hoped for in H2 but still going to be less than last year
Are they getting desperate to create a good impression by putting in headlines 'full year increase in profit after tax forecasted'. Just as well for property sales - sneaky eh, maybe that's the outrageous bit.
Hope still seems to be the strategy - let's hope it works
They use the word challenging a fair bit in the text of the result. Its certainly challenging being a shareholder which when there's so many other opportunities where companies are growing their earnings...Even from a gross dividend yield perspective this isn't nearly as good as it once was. 1.75 cps plus est 2.0 cps final = 3.75 cps fully imputed = 5.21 cps gross which on a 55 cent SP gives a gross divvy of 9.47% which I suppose is okay if you believe the talk of better times ahead in FY18. Pretty clear they are trying to prop up FY17 results artificially with property sales in the second half.
Can't help wondering how they're going with that expensive legacy pension plan...
Kind of as expected.
Nothing exciting, but seem to have a good handle on where there are going to which, is where they already are!
If you are really interested in the pension scheme(s) read the accounts, they get a mention or two.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
From note 9 of the Interim report for FY2017 (half year period ending 31st December 2016).
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Defined Benefit Asset/Liability
During the period the group made lump sum contributions to the two defined benefit plans, amounting to $6.03m. In addition the assets and liabilities of the Wrightson Retirement Plan were transferred to the PGG Wrightson Employee Benefits Plan during the period. This resulted in the Wrightson Retirement Plan having no liabiliity as at 31st December 2016.
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That $6.03m is a good start towards the $9.51m PGW said they would put towards the deficit in their retirement plans. I said this would be a be negative on FY2017 profits. But this seems to be not the case, from my reading of the accounts. The "Interim Statement of Comprehensive Income" shows "Items that will never be reclassified to Profit or Loss". In those items I see:
Remeasurements of Defined Benefit Liability of $3.343m (so their liability has gone up :-O !!!)
Nevertheless the good old taxman has come to the rescue, at least mostly:
Deferred tax on remeasurements of Defined Benefit Liability of ($2.564m)
So my summary of what has happened.
1/ Pension scheme liability has gone up, but the tax man is funding most of the difference.
2/ Even though real cash has gone in to bailing out the scheme, accounting rules keep this cash sink out of the profit and loss statement.
No, I don't understand it either!
SNOOPY
Actually the liability has gone down and the tax man in theory wants more.
But this is all future stuff that varies from day to day and appears in P&L when or if it becomes reality.
The cash movement of $6.03M is that a movement. As a result of $6.03M cash disappearing from the assets an equal $6.03m disappears from the (pension scheme) liabilities.
No profit and no loss.
Any actual realised profits or losses as a result of the pension scheme will be buried in the P&L.
Just don't try and follow it to closely your brain will explode :ohmy:
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
No matter how they slice and dice it the pension scheme sucked $6m of cash out of the company this half. NO wonder they are having to sell and lease back property to try and maintain the dividend.
Creative accounting ? you folks be the judge...of course I couldn't possibly comment :blush:
What an amazing escape. $6m in cash disappears, and there is no effect on the balance sheet! Ronnie Biggs take note. I guess this is why corporate accountants are paid so highly!
Nevertheless a little look at the balance sheet for comparative periods is in order:
HY2017 FY2016 HY2016 Total Liabilities (A) $472.236m $412.917m $482.166m Total Assets (B) $748.148m $687.216m $754.128m Debt ratio (A)/(B) 63.1% 60.1% 63.9% Inventories $214.251m $244.074m $209.163m
Because PGW is a seasonal business, the first half of the year tends to be 'stock heavy'. Less inventory is on hand at the end of the financial year (June 30th) when the farming season is over, and the inventories have been cleaned out. However this was not true as at 30th June 2016. This might be reflecting excess stock from irrigation systems not installed, and seeds not sold due to flooding in South America, specifically Uruguay. The 'like for like' period HY2017 vs HY2016 shows a greater inventory in FY2017 (more of the irrigation system products from last season and more seeds still on hand?) but also a (slightly) lower debt ratio. Hmmmm.
SNOOPY