Very very selective excerpts by Ruby from the same NZH article which compares ATM with Fonterra :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PJL3BORQQLJKQ/
paywalled
" ..... doubts persist about its reliance on the unofficial trade in infant formula from New Zealand and Australia into China by individuals and larger entities."
"That reliance has been brought into sharper focus by Covid-19 border closures."
"However the [unofficial, or daigou] channel to market is fragile, as people have reported."
"Some of it that [downgrade] may be Covid. Some of it may be a national preference for local brands, but the daigou channel is not a reliable channel to market."
" ..... was cool on a2 Milk's move to get into manufacturing in its own right by taking a controlling interest in Mataura Valley Milk. I am less enamoured from a return on investment perspective."
" .....while a2 Milk has a big chunk of the Australia fresh milk market, it is still largely dependent on infant formula sales into China - one product into one market. It's a risky proposition."
" ....At the same time there is the trend towards China becoming more self-reliant in dairy and in infant formula."
" ...."But a phenomenon related to Covid saw supply interrupted early last year, which saw more consumers turn to local brands, accompanied by an aggressive marketing campaign by the local infant formula companies," Mahon said.
"There are these exceptional periods that have altered supply and consumer demand."
Etc Etc
Pays to read the whole article to get a balanced perspective on what's the market out there is really thinking.