Why do I get the feeling you trade this stock, David B?
Your postings go from positive one week to downright alarmist another - buy and talk it up, sell and talk it down?
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At 10% uptake by US Urologists PEB are into some serious money. Although there will be some hard work ahead for the company, I think getting one urologist in ten to use cxbladder is fairly good odds. Just imagine if they get 20% or more.
I quickly chucked this together to estimate the future intrinsic value based on PEB's projected growth in the US. The IV calculated is for US sales only, so you could easily add a lot more to it if you take into account NZ, Aus and Spain sales, as well as their IP. You will see I have assumed NPAT is 50% of gross margin, if anyone has any figures that may be more accurate then let me know and I will chuck them in (and if you think the LT growth rates should be different).
Obviously the sales aren't certain, so the IV calculations could be very wrong. Please don't let these figures blind you, there is still a lot of risk in this stock. The SP could easily shoot down to 20 cents if things don't go to plan.
Warning: if you have a good sized holding in PEB then make sure you're sitting down before you look at the picture.
Attachment 4387
I have also crunched some numbers and made lots of assumptions but assuming:
PEB achieve 2% US market share in the 2013-14 FY;
and more or less double sales until they achieve 24% market share;
and then hold that.
then I would value PEB shares at:
Mar 14: $2.40;
Mar 15: $2.77;
Mar 16: $3.11;
as for present value well...
Best wishes
Paper Tiger
or assuming:
PEB achieve 2% US market share in the 2013-14 FY;
and increase sales by 50% per year until they achieve 10% market share;
and then hold that.
then I would value PEB shares at:
Mar 14: $1.05;
Mar 15: $1.18;
Mar 16: $1.31;
present value would be $0.76 maybe :p
Best wishes
Paper Tiger
So 10% market share, no further growth
Income of US$100M equates to only NZ$0.45 a share, so $5.00 a share is blowing in the wind my friend.
There is far too much uncertainty around PEB for any value to have much meaning but even if it is successful it may well be worth a lot less than some people think (or more of course).
best wishes
Paper Tiger
I hope folks arent going to buy a bunch of Pelican resources on the asx at .010
It was interesting to watch the shareprice move up after the announcement fron Harbour Asset Management that they had reduced their holding due to an adjustment in their portfolio weightings resulting from the recent strenght in the PEB shareprice. I think the fact that they mentioned the reason for the sale and that it was only part of their holding gave some confidence to the market that Harbour think PEB are on the right track.
The shareprice has had a great run of late and after being a shareholder for over six years it's good to see that at last some potential in the company is being realised.
One senses that other investors (especially fund managers) are taking the opportunity of Harbour selling down to get set in the stock.
PEB is getting more liquid but as we have seen with DIL and XRO, it is still extremely hard for fund managers who need volume to get set in a stock to buy on market - when the stock is running up on good news.
So they need o make a judgement call and get set before a stock start producing the goods, so to speak.
Holllllly sh!@t just brought back in about 45 mins ago @.75c hoping to be taken out @ .77 cents , asb emailed me and said we have bought your shares .... nek minit... CLIA .. invesment gods are watching hallejuah
I would have thought that there would have been an announement regarding a trading halt. Juct checked trading depth on ASB and it's showing a buyer at 80 and seller at 75. So either there's a glitch or there is in fact a short halt as mentioned prevoiusly.
Good news at any rate.
" all hell is not breaking loose " Moosie.. but expecting 80c plus today.
Cheers.