Bush is sending mixed signals to market just watch how the fed acts in the short term
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Bush is sending mixed signals to market just watch how the fed acts in the short term
As I commented in the Gartley Butterfly thread the kiwi is forming a better proportioned wing creature than the Aussie
Here I have modified the Gartley to 'idealize' the B and D points. Real prices themselves are not too far away. Tho B never went high enough D is still clawing for the correct D level.
I've added Fib time zones to the picture as well and it points to Oct 5th being the approximate turning point. Notice how A and C turned early tho.
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/873...007gartmm9.jpg
stalled a little at this gartley reversal zone maybe time for a breather
but being the kiwi probably not
Hi Peat
Yes, as we said on Sunday - so many levels reached on so many charts........surely has to be a sign. Maybe the power of the "herd behavior" bringing it all together.
I'll check out a couple of timing technqiues, - see if they correspond.
arco
Kiwi is raging buy right now I reckon
Gartley just completed on the 15 min
As you can see I've had couple of longs - first fdrom the 7605 level then closed one at C and set a limit which got triggered (pretty quickly ) while I slept - stop loss always at the 7585 levels http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/3...2007bm4.th.jpg
Let see if we get to 7660 quite quickly as the pattern suggests.
The longer this ranging action goes on the more likely that the eventual breakout (whichever way) will be more explosive.
so a maximum of 25 (very quick) pips on that trade was possible... but now its peeled back into the PPZ (profit protection zone) and I've closed it for minimal gain.....
I noted a bigger picture (1 hr candles) gartley possibility looking like D point might go as low as .7540 ish which may be playing out and counter to the smaller one I just tried.
Still, a reasonable trade tho imo - any trade that quickly goes into profit and offers the opportunity for some credit with minimal risk shouldnt be sniffed at.
As roddy says - back to the hatchery LOL
Morning All
We can see a definate Gartley shape forming with B382, and the current
high is 1618 wave A (or 1?). EW-wise this may be approaching the end of wave C(or 3?).
Direction has a south bias in the short/medium term IMO. Major Gann is still a little
way above, so we need to see a reversal confirmation signal before making any decision.
Heres a Pitchfork chart for a change, and you can definately see there
is potential for a Gartley termination (PRZ) around the PF centre tyne.
(PF in Red TBC = to be confirmed).
Peat - you appear to be scalping nicely with the short term BFs.
rgds - arco
Hi All
A complex situation with a potential Gartley in the wings. (see chart below)
(But, as we are well aware these can always fly on to become BFs).
So a little caution here until we can get a better idea. The EOD black candle
is certainly the longest down move for a while.
EW-wise.
Its not clear IMO if the Kiwi is in a 335 ABC, or if this is a new impulse.
it hit the 78% retracment of the slide since 1 PM - not a gartley in shape , only in level.
so back to where I first shorted it.... and have done it again at 7476 stop at 7510
Peat
We are on the same wavelength ...just posted this on ALERT
yes its a bit like taking candy off a baby today.... it isnt always like this tho
I've closed one of my trades at +46 as I know I would do this in real life - left one running.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10473078
The Reserve Bank continued easing up on intervention in the foreign currency market, buying a net $6 million last month, figures on the bank's website show.
That compares with the net $138 million the central bank sold in August, and the $1.5 billion it sold in July. The figure also includes liabilities of the Government's Debt Management Office.
The Reserve Bank's net short currency position, which it has said is a better reflection of its currency dealings, fell to $2.41 billion from $2.56 billion in August.
possibilty of trend weakening
78.6 reversal zone
possibity of shooting star on dailys not printed yet
divergence on rsi
yeh I agree with that zone DA, heres the gartley to support that notion
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/2...2007bk1.th.jpg
this picture coming to you from FXTrade!!
Quick work Peat on the Oa Trade
Whats the plan of attack tonight?
Peat/DB
Short term maybe a slight retrace because we are
being held up on a Gann point 7812, but I think there
could be a little more juice in the Kiwi before a major
ABC fall can take place. 8056....or higher perhaps.
rgds - arco
Updating the chart...............
....................IMO in the short/medium term there is still potential for
a move further into the dotted red square before we see a nice ABC correction.
.
.
arco
so it didnt quite reach our short target with the yellow bearish gartley(nearly tho)
and now perhaps its giving us a signal to long with the green bullish gartley. The RSI has reached oversold for the second time and shows divergence on the hourly here.
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/9...2007smaqj5.jpg
I have taken out a very small long at .7605 stop at 7560
which got blown out a few hours later.
when it bounced back up to my original entry point I shorted it (changed my direction) on the basis that the gartley failed as it went below X point.
stop at 7630 and have got some black ink tho its quite tenuous.
Also shouldnt really short term trade on Monday mornings when Oanda spreads are BIG.
closed @7520
+83 less the 40 I lost earlier.
so yeh I took a hit and learned the direction from that - only a small trade but has worked out okay.
also did a bigger one the Euro for +24 with those short term bearish gartleys that kept showing themselves today.
Its the demo account still , but I am taking it on board very seriously (that first failed trade really did hurt I swear! )
But I have just got confirmation of my fxtrade account being available and have now deposited funds tho these may take a day or two to show - soon, very soon twill be fo real
Hi Peat
Yes, that spread needs to be considered over the weekend as well.......I always widen stops if I have positions left running. Also if I trade on Mondays, I try to leave it until around mid-day when the spread goes back to normal.
The FX might not be moving as normal here tonight because I think the US are off today for the Veterans Day holiday.
arco
Further to post 820.
It appears that btw 12/10 to 13/11 the action may have produced a FLAT correction .....which means the retracment could now be over.......(DB is au fait with EW so he can perhaps have a look)
Its also possible the Kiwi print may come under the influence of a new emerging BF which if and when it plays out will create a potential new target circa 8250
If for any reason the price breaks below the recent Tweezer Bottom it could be that the last b-c leg is not compete. In that case the action could fall towards the higher end of the lower green box zone before heading to the target mentioned. (7280 is critical as lowest support).
rgds - arco
evening guys
in my count i have nzd in a double zig zag
currently in wave 1 of c of second zig zag
target 80 + or if momentum may carry to 82 +
it feels as though all majors ready for another run on usd imo
unfotunately i have wiped my data file for nzdusd from metastock so can only show last couple of months
emailed infoscan twice and they havent responded could anyone email a data file
DB
I can send you the NZD file if you can tell me where I can find it
rgds - arco
great arco
if you open nzdusd metastock graph
put your cursor on a candle and right click , select edit data
opens downloader and can copy spreadsheet
email to ancajoicey@yahoo.co.nz
thanks, paul
Hi DB
On its way to you now
rgds - arco
your a gentleman and a scholar
looks like possibity of wave 2 underway which if my count is applicable will allow a low risk
entry for wave 3 up
stop loss wave 1 low
possible entry around 50 - 61 retracement of wave 1
Hi DB
Checking for a potential turnaround wave 2 at the 618-786 Fibs.
(Gartley 382-618/786 perhaps??)
Low risk entry area 7490-7530 could be scaled in, or wait for reversal
pattern to appear. Current price 7532
Kiwi has given us around 70 pips so far off the trade idea
mentioned earlier today.
The daily chart looks very similar to Aussie, so in the short
term until the chart patterns becomes more clear longer term
positions are harder to predict with accuracy.
Taking decent size nibbles like we have today may be the way
to go until the situation is clearer IMO.
GTA - arco
a nibble for afternoon tea
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4...1112007yl9.jpg
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4...dcb3dcc203.jpg
imo currently running a 3rd wave of a c wave entered 7526 sl 7449
should hopefully run to about 7820 ish
still having problems getting my metastock nzd up and running but will post a chart soon
morning peat
yeah has been slow but worth the wait
morning chaps , being counting this one
i reckon this is shaping up for a look at a short
nice count currently starting a 3 of a c wave down
Hi All
Refer to chart in post 826.....
...............this is the continuation chart which shows if in the small blue Gartley (50-786) the 'b' leg is complete then there is the potential for a fall to the boxes below where we have a confluence of targets. 50% of the previous up wave (red Gartley) may be a point to look towards some support coming in. There could also be an element of support to break around .7560 where 2 old uptrend line merge.
After this event plays out expect the possibility of a reversal and a move further north IMO
rgds - arco