Ryman results will be good. It's all about property values and fair value adjustments. Property prices are still going up.
Could even be a boomer of a result ....maybe +20% or more. Just need to keep an eye on valuations.
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Ryman results will be good. It's all about property values and fair value adjustments. Property prices are still going up.
Could even be a boomer of a result ....maybe +20% or more. Just need to keep an eye on valuations.
Nice to see Ryman share price is again above the 50 day and the 200 day EMA.
Looks to me as though the new uptrend is underway.
Property only going up in Auckland and Chch, almost everywhere else its either flat or in decline, in some places in serious decline. You should have seen the regional breakdown in the Herald a few weeks back, it was a real eye-opener.
I maintain the sector is still fully priced and therefore continue to avoid.
If you make the teddy bear with Norah's face I promise I'll throw darts at it LOL.
If one must pay these silly 30+ PE's for a retirement stock then there's no doubt this is the best of breed. i.e If you put a gun to my head and said you must invest in this sector then it would be a no brainer decision to buy Ryman but I'd definitly want said teddy bear for therapeutic reasons :D
Exactly mate and that's why many regional retirement homes are in real trouble when it comes to revaluation. Those with most of their retirement villages in Chch and Auck might be okay for a bit longer...but I think the whole revaluation model these lofty PE's are built on looks vulnerable in the medium term.
Yes,No,Maybe???
A friend of mine found it impossible to find a good retirement home in Ashburton for his mother-in-law.
Another friend had to move both his mother and father into care in Timaru as there was no dementia care in Temuka.
Outside of Christchurch,Dunedin and Nelson it can be difficult finding suitable retirement villages,and or care.
Demand is driven by "Nana needs care" rather than property values.
Most people who decide to move into a retirement village decide for security,safety reasons.lifestyle,selling their home to pay for their unit.,and are usually prepared "to meet the market."
This sector has huge tailwinds driving it.We are seeing the likes of Ryman setting higher standards all the time,to take advantage of growing demand,both here and in Australia.
Retail,office,warehousing,industrial property do not have the same huge tailwinds.
Retained earnings are being well reinvested in further growth.
Values may go up,down,sideways in the short term,but resale stock,care fees,building/development margins,etc will prove this a very rewarding sector for us investors.
Ryman is perhaps the only one that actually makes some of its money from the day to day operation of its villages and to that extent is a little more insulated from a sudden down-draft in revaluations that the others rely on for most of their profit.
No debate about the tailwinds or lack of demand for services, debate for me centres on whether that's already fully reflected in the SP with these lofty 30+ PE's or perhaps still a little over-cooked ?
Priced for absolute perfection and what if there's some chink in the perfection story just around the corner...like Friday ?
Retail Office wharehouse priced around 11-13 PE and divvy yield's 6-7 times this sector.
No problem with the long term fundamentals and no problem buying into the tailwind story if your investment horizon is 20-30 years it doesn't matter if you pay a PE of 30+, long term growth will see you right in the long term but what if one decides one wants to sell in 2-3 years and PE's contract with an increase in interest rates and lower resale margins being achieved by retirement players with slower growth in house prices / declines in same perhaps ?
Look what's happened to SUM's SP when they suddenly have a year of no or negative EPS growth...or was that just Norah shooting the company in the foot ?
I'm happy to wait to see where the perfection story starts to develop a flaw or three :)