W69, i dont suppose you got one of your cool graphs plotting the entire year?
35% down is a worry. But were the other months 35% up sort of thing?
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Do FPH make more from hardware or consumables?
Latest exports data has been released today ...as now the mix is more consumables then hardware from NZ thus the original estimate correlation is not that reliable thats why mine as well as FB half year estimates or forecasts were much below actuals
Still they have done the best in December ...my estimate of their revenues is $ 185 mil and of last qtr of $ 510 mil
To answer your original question ...IMO they do make much more money on consumables then hardware thats why surprisingly their margins improved in last results .
If all goes well for them they may end up doing close to $ 2 Billion sales or nearby to it this year .
Gradon FPH CEO very clearly said during half yearly results that next 6 months will be less then PCP but surely more then last 6 months ...that imply more then 900 mil but less then 1050 mil ...
Nothing much to worry ...they are doing much better then all the estimates of analysts of 65 cents to 75 cents EPS ...closer to 90 Cents is most likely with NZD helping . Interest rates dont matter to EPS as they have no loans but are cash surplus ...but they matter for valuation purpose .
At the moment FPH is trading at its lowest valuations historically due to lack of visibility of earnings and analysts not able to read their business confidently
To put things in right perspective ....FPH SP was $ 22.10 on 3rd Jan 2020 pre covid .. Company Forecasted NP was 255 Mil to 265 Mil and OCR was 1% ...so forward P/E was 49 .
Now most likely NP is $500 -510 Mil almost double of 2020 with OCR at 0.75 % and tending up its trading at $ 28 at forward P/E of 31 .
So its valuations are at historic low multiples already for various reasons ...surely they can go further down but company of the like of FPH which has wide Moat and highest quality of earnings due to earnings dependability , is well placed to bear current storm . Surely a hold or add at current levels
“At current exchange rates we continue to expect full year operating revenue for the 2020 financial year to be approximately $1.19 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $255 to $265 million. " Extract from Nov 2019 results
Yes concur there. Great work alokdhir
A great post alokdhir. Thank you for your great work.
Love the passion in your posts alokdhir .... good post
Hasn't convinced me to increase my exposure to FPH (ie wanting more than a respectable return on the new investment) ..... or really allayed my fears that FPH share price will keep falling whittling away at gains made.
All this talk that property prices need to fall .... some say 25% and the Greens say 50% ....The OECD is even worried ....made me think heck FPH already down 25% from its high ..... probably highlights what can happen when speculative bubbles deflate.
Not convinced one bit.Great company but in the wrong cycle as the shift to Value stocks continues.
What are the bollies telling us at the moment?