I don't bother do return calculations ......saves a bit of pain sometimes
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Well I have just checked this year's sharetrader competition, as it reflects my portfolio, and I see I am 28th being up 9.30%.
My sharebroker will most probably send me a portfolio update tomorrow, which should confirm I am "well positioned."
May be even better as I note I am 6th in the Australian competition, being up 28%.
My find myself "very well positioned."
I have never been an HLG shareholder myself. Always kept it on the radar though, because when it comes to retailing there aren't many who do it as well as HLG. While I agree in general with what Roger has said here, you don't have to go back too far (FY2014!) to find times when HLG's stock managment was less than impeccable. To managment's credit they set about solving these stock hiccups by looking at themselves rather than blaming 'the market'. I have a lot of respect for such an approach.
As for the growth opportunities, I can't think of too many that have panned out well. HLG have been trying to become profitable in Australia seemingly forever. The latest attempt seems to be opening new signature stores in Sydney and Melbourne. Previous attempts have stalled I think because of the high rents that shopping centre owners demand in Australia. They had to pull the Hallenstien brand out of Australia altogether IIRC.
Back over this side of the Tasman there is the 'Storm' brand, which masquerades as an upmarket boutique shop. Not sure if too many women are fooled by that, nor how many designer boutiques have all their clothes made in bulk in China. Was going well until the headwinds stuck in FY2014.
I walk past a Glassons and Hallenstein's every week when I pick up the shopping. As I walk by, my foot tracks seem to recalibrate themselves to walk towards the entrance of both shops. The vibrant displays seem to have this magnetic attraction for shoppers, even if they aren't after clothes! Plenty get trapped inside too!
OK, cutting to the chase. HLG management are not short growth ideas, and concept execution seems good. But eps remains some 20% below pre GFC levels of FY2006 and FY2007. I don't know of many companies that run so hard just to stay still. Retail is a tough business to be sure, and things aren't getting any easier. So the question I ask myself is not if HLG is a great retailer (I think they are) but do I want to invest in the retail sector (outside of food) at all?
SNOOPY
Ok time to rerun my dividend yield valuation. I am going to stick to the last five years of results, simply becasue the retail scene does seem to be evolving so fast.
Year Interim Dividend Final Dividend eps Payout ratio 2014 12.0cps 16.5cps 24.2cps 118% 2013 16.0cps 17.5cps 31.3cps 107% 2012 14.5cps 19cps 31.0cps 108% 2011 14.0cps 17.0cps 29.3cps 106% 2010 14.0cps 17.0cps 34.3cps 90% Total 70.5cps 87.0cps 150.1cps
Payout ratio (5yr average): (70.5 +87.0)/ 150.1 = 105% (Not sustainable?)
Average Annual payout (5yr average): 31.5cps
If we consider a yield of 6.5% over today's business cycle being 'fair', then my valuation for HLG is:
31.5/ 0.065 = $4.85
SNOOPY
I would argue you would have to go back to the GFC to try and capture the "business cycle".
Well my feet took me in today ; had to really hunt but found the $10 rack and added 2 more tshirts (were $30 e)to my collection. I was the only one there at re 10.45 am.Loaded with stock.
These are qualiTEE Panel shirts with designs printed all over ,not just an old fashioned little oblong print on the front of the thinnest piece of nano cotton. Get with it Percy; age is no excuse . Postiplus has imitations of everything and serves a purpose for those on a true budget and those scrooges with no taste:t_up: