Nostadamus here with his views...
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You bet moosie congrats to the NTL team and i may even have a cold TUI in the fridge.
Good buying on the Aussie side no one up with the play there yet.
.......long way to go to get this dog off the ground yet Robbo. How much are they gunna be asking shareholders for now.........$5.4m isnt it? When was this prefeasability study completed anyway........cos if it was more than a week ago (as Im sure it wud have been) then their figures arnt worth the paper they'te written on ( given the 15% plus drop in GP over the last 7days)........in fact I doubt the whole thing is even viable now. Hey good luck tho m8 if you wanna keep throwing money at this puppy......I think they'll be needing lots of it.
Nil, I believe:
The company intends to fund this work with a small scale mining operation, focussed on the immediately available, Measured and Indicated resources to ensure that the project is self-funded. Initial mining would produce a projected cash surplus of NZ$23.4 million from total ore milled of 106,500 tonnes at a recovered grade of 9.4g/t Au and 30.0g/t Ag. A total of 32,200 ounces of gold would be recovered along with 102,800 ounces of silver.
No need to doubt - do the math.
Robust C1 cash cost of US$588/oz and C3 Cash cost of US$1075/oz - well below current prices
From the announcement:
Project Economics – A Discounted Cash Flow analysis based on a weighted consensus average gold price forecast of US$1600/oz, a NZ$:US$ exchange rate of 1:0.8 and a 10% discount rate indicated a net present value (NPV) for the project of NZ$15.5 million. Unit cash costs were estimated at NZ$692/oz with an all in cost, including capital expenditure of NZ$1166/oz.
Somewhere else they mention 12000oz of gold a year. At $1600 that is a 6.3mil profit but at todays price $1360 that is only a $3.4mil profit - approximately a 50% reduction.
Wow! Compared to some other hopeful miners, the amount of capital required is very low. Just a few mill, and these details on the operation are tantalising in their simplicity.
Great cashflow numbers from a boutique operation, and I'm not as worried as GR8DAY about the gold price, especially by the time they're ready to go. Which might not be very long, if initial funding and permitting is forthcoming. It's an old mine, how tough will the permit process be? And 35,000 tonne p.a. is only about 50 cubic metres of treatable ore a day. There is not going to be a big fleet of vehicles needed, capital needs are very low. The heap leach treatment is very low cost too, even OGC do this at Macraes sometimes. And their grades are nowhere near this good.Quote:
Mining Method - Ore veins are steeply dipping, from 70? to near vertical, with widths ranging from ~1.0m in the Welcome/Crown area to >6.0m in the Woodstock. Preliminary stope designs have been constructed encompassing the volume of estimated payable ore in each resource block. Analysis indicates that the geometry of the lodes is potentially suitable for a number of mining methods. The study recommended that a sub-level stoping design be implemented to provide the flexibility to switch between hand-held and long-hole drilling techniques where applicable. Materials Handling - An option analysis was carried out on the installation of rail bound transport systems underground compared with the deployment of a fleet of small, rubber tyred loaders and trucks. Results clearly demonstrated that the flexibility of a trackless fleet, which would enable extraction of the resources below 8 Level through a series of small ramp systems, held significant advantage to the project.
Production Plan - A production plan was developed based on the above assumptions. It indicated that an initial five-year operation, with peak production of 35,000 tonnes per annum and 12,000 gold ounces in years 3 and 4 was possible. 65% of the total 106,000 tonnes mined would be derived from the better understood Woodstock and Dubbo Sections. Production planned from the Mystery and Welcome/Crown blocks would primarily comprise on-reef development required to improve and extend the confidence of resource estimates within these areas. Services - Systems required to support mining operations, such as power, water and compressed air reticulation, have been designed to support double the production rates estimated in the plan. This would permit the possible future expansion of the mine into newly proven areas. Considerable consideration has been given to designing systems that would minimise impact on the environment. Processing and Metallurgy - The study evaluated several processing options including non-chemical gravitation separation, flotation and cyanide leaching. Historically, cyanide leaching of ore from Talisman achieved a 95% gold recovery and 70% silver. Costs included in this study reflect the capital and operating costs for a dedicated CIL plant. NTL is awaiting results of test-work undertaken by Auckland University and intends to embark on a bulk sampling program and further metallurgical test-work to inform detailed design of the ore processing flow-sheet. Additionally the company is holding discussions with a number of local gold producers to investigate the potential for a toll treating agreement.
NTL is about the only good story on the NZX today, nearest other share increase is about 3.5%. The MCAP of NTL is still only a mere $12mill. Plenty of room to move yet.
It's as simple as: http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/p...DLM231910.html
It's not necessarily simple, actually, but the fact that it has been mined before should reduce the threshold for obtaining a resource consent to get it all going again. The mining methods seem less intrusive than other methods commonly used (from what I've seen on Gold Rush: Alaska!). I'm not one of these big city lawyers but things like trucks, noise, traffic, etc, all have to be taken into account and can result in a costly little experience. Although, the local counsel might be very welcoming of the application and if you pay off the enviro-warriors and other groups who commonly appeal to the environment court then you're good to go!
Thanks for that Robbo. Here's a tidier version of the report.
http://www.newtalismangoldmines.co.n...lity-Study.pdf (NTL should tidy up their logo resolution. I think they can afford to now).
While the price of gold is an issue for the first stage of the mining, this should be a precursor for drilling down within the Talisman mine to hopefully intercept other new veins. A lot of the original Coromandel area gold was target-mined underground from veins in the bonanza-grade region of 2-3 oz/tonne, or 60-90 grams/tonne. In that case, any value over US$1,000 an ounce will be more than acceptable.
I've been following the price of gold for a while, and there are more reasons for it to go up in value, than down. While sentiment does have a part to play, it looked like there was an orchestrated move to pull gold down, and some huge eyewatering profits would have been made by shorters on the inside of the move. The point remains that a big portion of the world's population covets gold, and it's getting harder and more expensive to find it underground.
Back to the long-awaited Pre-Feasibility Study from New Talisman. There are no glossy photos or fancy drawings, which is a pity. But the numbers are there. I reckon they're good numbers.
The total resource is 204,760 oz gold, 798,840 oz silver, of which a fair bit is inferred, but the average grade of all the gold is 8.5g/tonne. This is way over the new normal grades at Martha Hill and Macraes. It's high enough to go digging underground for it. Note that NTL is only going for the easiest gold at first, just 32,000oz of gold over 5 years, or 15.6% of the known/inferred resource.
Over 5 years, they'll hope to remove $60mill of bullion (gold and silver) but only about 5% of the value will be in the silver. $60mill assumes gold at US$1600/oz, exchange rate 0.8, minus a 10% discount for error. That still looks like being in the ballpark for a goldbug like me.
They predict a cash surplus of $23,400,000 after the five years, by which time they'll be using some of the surplus to investigate other parts of the mine, and pull out more of the known gold (self-funded after 2-3 years).
But this figure of $23,400,000 is even better than it looks: it means that the capital cost of setting up the mining operation (a total of $11-15mill odd) has all been paid for already. Of course the books will be better than that, as a lot of this cost will be capitalised and depreciated over say 10 years, not five. In any case, the equipment and setup can be used on other gold recovery work afterwards. If the grades keep improving based on exploration work, cash costs per ounce should fall further.
The Net Present Value (NPV) of just this subset project is calculated as $15.5mill, which would value every NTL share at NZ3.2c. However the currently known/inferred resource of 205,000 oz gold, 800,000 oz silver, if recovered and sold today, would be worth about NZ$380mill.
Toll treatment: some info which implies the mine owner delivers ore, it's weighed and grades are fairly well known, then the toll miller runs it through their plant. CIL means Carbon in Leach, not heap leaching?
http://www.im-mining.com/2010/05/03/toll-treatment-issues-for-gold-advice-from-mets/