“Hand in” their clients pockets?
Nah lister is a good dude, plenty of time for him.
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Ashley Gardyne (chief investment officer at Fisher funds) singing off the same hymn sheet on the weekend and not for the first time. He was wrong 2 months ago and I think for the short term at least, he will be wrong this time. What he never said is maybe they have the wrong stocks for the new more value focused environment we're now in ? and that question applies right across their portfolio including Barramundi and Kingfish including their large stake in FPH. e.g. Marlin NTA down from $1.30 last Sept to just $1.07 last week and falling further quite fast, ouch ! Never mind, hang in there so we get our annual 1.25% management fees regardless of whether you get badly burned or not. Hmmm...
Wisely spoken Beagle (as usual) I exited the FPH position that I bought at the bottom today as this could have further downside if NZ fund managers rebalance and liquidate for a more value focused environment for the short term... as you say its hard to make progress in this market... Given the US market might correct soon tempted to get into a corrected US growth index tracker for the long term...Any thoughts?
I believe we are just at the very beginning of a real reckoning with the share prices of US technology, small company growth and in particular growth companies with no earnings. I got burned on BOT (automation and biotech ETF and USS (small company ETF) late last year and exited both positions in early 2022. As a bean counter I have to chose to believe that earnings really do matter, (its my life's work) and some of the companies in the US are trading on nothing more than the hope of earnings at some vague undefined very distant year in the future. People are gambling on what's going to be the next big thing as opposed to investing in quality companies with real earnings on sensible metrics.
Not many people realize that the NASDAQ as a whole lost a whopping 90% of its value after the dot.com bust around the start of this century. Cathy Woods ARK fund has been absolutely smashed, down more than 50% from the peak and I think it could go a lot lower yet.
Its hard to make money when the tide is going out fast. My plan with BOT and USS, (both listed here) is to wait for the next uptrend. Bring up a chart and you will see both have broken down through the dark line (100 day moving average). I will stay out for as long as it takes until they break back up through that indicator indicating a new uptrend. Sure you miss the early part of the new uptrend but that's a great way to de-risk a new position in these ETF's. I think a new uptrend is probably quite some time away...possibly a year or two.
Use the same technique for any other company presently in a downtrend is not a silly idea either.
Its a bit of a skill to learn to simply sit in cash and not do anything with it. Many people get tripped up by fancy European cars or boats including myself at times.
Final thought. The war in Ukraine could very easily deteriorate into a much worse situation including the potential for WW3 either conventional or nuclear.
Thanks! Beagle for being generous with your knowledge and insights:t_up:...
As you mentioned (I have to keep on reminding myself) that the tide has turned and there might not longer be easy money for the taking.... all we can do is to reduce risk profile, increase cash holdings and probably lie in wait :-) as things go more low I was thinking on the lines of USG, but even with their quality portfolio some stocks might still take a hit..so as you mention it make sense to get back when an uptrend but till then have to be patient and cautious...
Yes be cautious,but be ready to buy tech when others are selling.Tesla is entering a perfect storm of growth with the cost of energy going nuts atp.Tech innovation stocks like Tesla(and fph) with its multi prong leading tech ,AI, battery and vehicle construction efficiencies etc are the future.Time to get greedy soon in tech.
USG a good idea as you're safer in the large growth stocks and many will have real pricing power in this high inflation environment but they're also in a downtrend and its best to wait for a new uptrend and then pounce.
I agree JT but I still think trying to pick bottoms without TA confirmation is usually a messy business.
Difference between long term investors and traders and their thinking is easy to see on this thread ...everytime a big correction happens then we hear " I told u so ..." lol
2010 ....FPH was $ 2.42 or so ....how many traders made more money then $ 2.42 turning to todays $ 26.90 ....in say 12 years .... MFT is even more rosier story of long term investing in good growth oriented stocks ...
Long term investors dont worry about daily or even weekly or monthly market conditions ....Markets are down world over ...No one could predict the current War scenarios ....though Inflation fear was on cards ...but FPH and MFT s have gone thru many inflation cycles in last 15 years or so .
Also Guru Lister's advise is saner to sit tight on your long term positions ....dont let markets and different time frame perspective people scare u ....I fully agree