SMD position looks a little worse than it did this time last year
http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/daily-climate-maps
SMD is soil moisture deficit
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SMD position looks a little worse than it did this time last year
http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/daily-climate-maps
SMD is soil moisture deficit
Thanks Paper Tiger, percy and snapiti. The 3rd option looks fairly agreeable, but leaning a little towards HNZ for a couple of reasons - not sure how robust they are but here goes.
1) HNZ SP up 25% over 52 weeks compared to SUM at 45% leads me to believe there is possibly more upside in HNZ in the next 12 months
2) Currently more buyer depth for HNZ, and not a lot of sellers even at these highs indicate holders willing to hold for even better times ahead
3) Better yield
4) (Not sure about this one, feel free to call me out on it) Banks benefit from ridiculous QE going on around the world (see this article about China's recent efforts)
(might have just convinced myself)
Plenty of good rain in lower north as well
I keep an eye on the SMD because the key drivers of economic activity in NZ are how much moisture is in the ground, commodity prices and the NZD. Put those three inputs into a model and you get a pretty good idea of where the underlying NZ economy is heading ...and then add a bit more for the Canterbury recovery.
So not just a forecadt for primary related industries but the economy as a whole. Stood the test of time that modelling.
I have been asked by another poster to post this link http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/loca...s-for-new-bank
Thanks Karen1.
Reads very well, thought we would all enjoy it .
Logical Simla, but I would take issue with your original assumption. I know there has been a lot of talk about HNZ being a niche industry funder to business. However, the actual picture , as laid out in table 40a "Concentrations of Funding" from the FY2013 Annual Report, shows funding split between Finance $258.9m, Households $1.732.1m and listed bonds $106.5m.
So despite the hype, it would seem that Heartland is still largely funding real estate and property, probably a legacy of their PGC and CBS ingredients that went into the pot to make up Heartland.
SNOOPY
I fail to see how anybody can so consistently fail to understand a set of accounts and so consistently post incorrect drivel and fanciful made-up numbers.
We recently had you calculating the levels of Tier 1 & 2 capital for banks instead of just looking it up and your guess being nearly 50% higher than reality.
And now you apparently do not know the difference between lending and borrowing.
Paper Tiger