Originally Posted by
Snoopy
I wonder if the gagging of the independent directors is working against the takeover? If they were free to speak, there might be more debate in the media about the pros and cons of the offer. The directors are probably so terrified that if they open their mouths at all, then something they said could be misinterpreted as speaking against the deal. So all directors have remained silent. But the problem now is the deal is out of the news completely. If the deal had been free to be discussed openly, then it may have got more media and hence shareholder traction. A couple of weeks back, I got a card in the mail 'reminding me to send in my acceptance'. There was no attempt to resell the deal on that card, a fact that surprised me.
I have been one of the hold outs, but posted my acceptance form for all my shares away today. I too thought acceptances would flow in thicker and faster. But now you can do it on the net, there could be an ambush of acceptances at the last minute.
The fact that I chose to post in my acceptance is partly because I remain luke warm on the deal. I am half hoping the post service slow motion will kick in and my acceptance form won't make it in time! As you can see in my post 2439, the real value of the offer is $8.89, not $9.45. So one way of judging the likely success of the offer is to look at the market price and see if it goes over $8.89. The share price spiked pretty close to that on 11th February (got to $8.84). But it has since fallen back. This to me is an indicator that the takeover will get there. But I am not sure that 'there' will end up at 75% of all shares. Global Valar might get to 65% and say that is enough, something they are entitled to do under the scheme of arrangement that they produced.
It would be fascinating to get an operational trading update for RBD, for the financial year just closed. But no doubt directors won't give we shareholders that. Perversely, if RBD is on or ahead of budget, that could be seen as talking down the value of the offer! $8.89 I think is a fair price rather than a great price. But it was the prospect of getting more of my shares paid out at $9.45 than the 75% of shares I expected to get, that finally got me to send in my acceptance form. Nevertheless, I hope to keep some 'skin in the game' after the Mexican takeover is over.
SNOOPY