Yes thanks troyvdh..I was thinking the same.
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Nobody is saying its not a great investment over the long haul mate, its just that with a circa 300% SP appreciation in the few years to late 2013 the stock got well ahead of itself. That's what Winner and I strongly believed at that time and the SP performance in the last two years has vindicated our viewpoint. I think you can take it as read that given the circa 30% underlying earnings growth in total in the last two years we both think it's now around about fair value and good buying for the long haul on any meaningful dip. My one concern is where's the catalyst to break it out of its current trading range ?
There's not much point owning this puppy for it's dividend yield is there !
FOR THE RECORD.
For the umpteenth time Ryman's MD,Simon Challies has stated;
"Ryman experienced steady sales no matter what the market conditions were."
ps pleasingly enough The Press reported this twice, in this mornings issue..!..lol.
I agree completely, it did get 'out of hand', people got far to optimistic, and although there is no denying they have done well, it was simply trading at far far to much of a premium for me (and it seems many others) to get excited about it, and the dividend yield alone is not enough to support an investment from me (what is it, like 2%? not imputed?)
At least with ARV, which for little reason is still viewed as the 'dog of retirement village stocks (although 'all will be revealed' this coming Thursday), they have a 5% expected dividend yield 'to back it up'...
I'm also not sure how it will break out because although its doing well, the share price is still at a premium, although no where near as overvalued as it was a few years ago
The much admired investor and author Peter Lynch liked to look at a stocks price over time compared to a reasonable PE. It quickly told him when it was under/over valued.
Here is updated chart showing RYM price compared to what it would be if it traded at 22 times underlying earnings. The 22 number is a long term average but before the last few years madness it was closer to 20.
Easy to see the best buying opportunities to maximise returns (even for the diehard long time investor)
I find such thingsiInteresting
and this one shows degree of under/overvalued relative to a PE of 22
Getting closer to a more reasonable level. The red line is sort of forward looking and that's why I think the price has got another 6 months to a year of going sideways
But then a global market collapse could stuff that theory anyway
Thanks Winner69 for the images - seems like a good way to put things into perspective.
I've read Peter's book, and I always thought selecting a PE of 22 across all business types seems rather arbitrary. Perhaps the PE selected should be relative to its peers?
I always compare 'the general company' to the nzx 50 average, which I think is around 18 or 19, although this comparison is far from fool proof.
If you want to be more precise comparing it to peers can be beneficial, although some may be in different stages (eg summerset more growth) or differently structured to others (eg arvida more care focused)
The PE of 22 I use for Ryman isn't arbitrary - it's what the market over time has rewarded Ryman with and if they continue to grow earnings at 15% pa in future the PE will probably average out about there again.
It's also a multiple of underlying earnings. Using real NPAT the PE is about 13%/14%