Valuation done for the deal came in at $6.50 to $7.45.
New valuation has been done but not disclosed.
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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12335627
"Independent adviser KordaMentha partner Grant Graham valued the company at between $6.50 and $7.65 a share earlier this month but updated the valuation last week. That valuation remains confidential". "In the statement of claim lodged May 15, Metlifecare asserts there is no basis for changing its 20-year forecasting methodology for asset valuation and that its most recent internal management forecast for underlying profit was $88.7m, consistent with its statement on April 26 that it expected year-end earnings of between $83m and $90m".
Last month I modelled out a 7.5% reduction in house prices (which was the medium of economists a few weeks ago) and allowed for accrued earnings to April 2021 and got a fair value NTA of $6.65 inclusive of all earnings for the next 11 months.
At the end of the day with the price where it is and my own estimates of fair value (although a takeover would be nice ) I am committed to this one way or the other and looking at the share prices of all others in this sector, the current share price of MET is very attractive, as is OCA's share price.
thanks Master Beagle for the sum up!!
Hey folks, non holder not playing this game, but what do you think about the economics of taking it on the chin with a fine plus legal costs versus having to shell out the total wad of cash for a business they’ve decided they don’t want? Which is the more likely outcome? Or do you bank on an outcome that the suitor who was but is no longer interested, is compelled to pay the mother load plus the legal fees? Where do you see the legal view landing on this?
I am still cautiously hopeful of a negotiated settlement at a price in the $6 - $6.50 area before this goes to court in November but it may take a ruling by the High court in MET's favour, (acknowledging this can be appealed), to bring this about.
The company’s gearing (loan to valuation ratio) was 16% at balance date, remaining the lowest in thelisted retirement village sector and retaining ample capacity to fund future growth.
That made me okay to hold long term ...whether the takeover done or not done deal.
Well said. I like this bit too "most recent internal management forecast for underlying profit was $88.7m" and well worth noting that includes the full effects of Covid 19 for the four months from March to June 2020. They did $90.5m underlying last year so after the wage subsidy Covid haven't hurt them much at all.
I think this shows the underlying resiliency of their business, just like OCA eh mate :).
The cost of subscribing is trivial.
My reading is that Stephen Hunter QC for metlifecare told the court that shareholders needed to vote because the costs were high.
In contrast Galbraith said no point voting now as may get a different offer-eg a higher bid !(this insinuated to me that they may be wanting to make a lower bid)