5 months in has yet to show up any write offs. I predict that 12 months out from now your XIRR will be closer to 10%.
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5 months in has yet to show up any write offs. I predict that 12 months out from now your XIRR will be closer to 10%.
But the new interest rates will put a dampener to the returns, so assuming a high churn rate of 8 to 10% a month with no new investments, the RAR could drop to just around or below 14%.
I'm predicting (at the moment), 15.3% - rates have changed but I'll be moving my investment band, so it's a bit tough to predict anything now...
Note: This is with compounding, i.e. all returns are reinvested, it's not a static 100K (currently 105K), so I think 10% is well below likely returns - my thoughts only.
Just working it through a bit...
Since it took me a little over 3 months to invest the 100K, lets put the investment equivalent time at 4 months. So at current return I should have 15K clear at 12 months less defaults. To only get 10% I'd have to have 50 new (full) defaults (rounding up to $100 per loan) - but since almost all loans have already returned 4 months of interest/principle, I'd have to be looking at, at least 75 defaults. That's 7.5% pa defaults. My average Harmoney suggested default rate is 1.59%, even if you double that it's not close to 7.5%...
I'm in a unique position to know exactly what has gone in and am not adding or drawing funds, so come 12 months it will be interesting to see where it's ended up.
Good effort getting 100k invested in such a short time. I have only managed to get 15k in 3 months. I'm 80% going for 36 month loans however.
and now looking at only C and D grade