was just thinking....imagine if seeweed had invested in a condom factory in stead of A2 milk....standing outside a supermarket handing out advice to all the pregnant mums and even some free samples
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was just thinking....imagine if seeweed had invested in a condom factory in stead of A2 milk....standing outside a supermarket handing out advice to all the pregnant mums and even some free samples
I'm sure they would see him coming.......
What I can't work out is if a2 has nearly 10% of the fresh milk market in Australia and sales maybe $150m this year the fresh milk market isn't very big for such a large country is it.
Just doesn't seem right
Found something that said supermarket fresh milk sales were just over $2 billion last year with growth of 0.6%
With supermarket markups suppose 10% share is about right
So reality checking sales in my DCF model reverse engineered to support a $1 shareprice a2 share will be nearly 30% in 5 years ....umm
Back to the drawing board.
Any idea of future capex?
I am inclined to think that what snoopy has said here is a fair apraisal of where we are at presently. The fact is that a2 has not progressed as far into other markets as much as the 95c level this time last year had anticipated. Thats not to say that they won't acheive it but it looks likely that it will take longer albeit a lot sooner if the science proves it and the media expose it. I wouldn't trade on that though.
I'm not sure that running DCF models on projected revenues into the future is that reliable either. The most anyone can currently project on is working on the basis that a2 takes a 10% share of the Australian market revenue with around a 15% margin, some growth in the chinese fresh milk, UHT and baby formula and very slow or modest growth in UK and USA. That would give a "fair value" as we know it at the moment, the rest of it is speculative, so remaining invested in the stock or buying more is sensible at these prices even if the numbers show it is above "fair value" on the basis that the investor has confidence in its future growth potential. There will always be a premium over fair value for this on weighted opinion. Investors will need to be patient.
Overheard nice young couple at Countdown Lynfield yesterday, when I was looking for a2 ....there is no choc. milk left. So I jumped in and said this is the best milk a2. just like your partners breast milk...a healther choice, and you can add chocolate and gave them one of my flyers. And the guy said sold, picked up a bottle of a2 and off they went. Don't know about condoms, might get punched over if showing how to do that. Enlightened about 15 people in the last week to a2.:)
Geez See weed, how much time per week do you actually spend at the supermarket around the milk stand?
Geez See weed, how much time per week do you actually spend at the supermarket around the milk stand?
Absolutely, Harrie. It's too early to expect big net revenue increases from China, UK and USA in time for the upcoming HY report, though we should see some worthwhile returns in the full-year 2015 results and even more so next year. But it will take a year or two for the UK and US operations to cover initial setup costs and yield profits.
As regards Ziggy's comment on a2 Milk going off before its use-by date, it usually has quite a long best-before time period and personally I wouldn't push it to the limit - same goes for other milk as well. It's also important to ensure it is never left in sunlight, even for short periods. All milk needs to be kept away from UV light, and even half an hour in sunlight can start turning it.