...17 and then to 18 bull
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I'm proposing a "scientific wager":
Similar to that of the Simon–Ehrlich wager: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%...3Ehrlich_wager
Background:
I was just having a look at the market cap of Z Energy, which as of today is $1.4B. It seems pretty large, especially considering that the stock has dropped so much recently. From a high of around $9, all the way down to $2.60 today. It got me thinking, in 20 or 30 years time, aren't all the cars on the road going to be electric? If so, why isn't this stock trading like it's Sky TV and going out of business?
The Wager
Here's the wager. Will satellite terrestrial TV outlive the gasoline car? In other words, will a significant amount of people still be using satellite TV when a significant amount of people are using electric cars, and therefore the need to fuel up with petrol is no longer necessary. Obviously, you're not going to get 100% of people driving electric cars and 0% of satellite and vice versa. But in general, will the average person still have a coaxial satellite connection with their TV, when the average person has an electric car?
The Stakes
In the year 2040: Loser has to either full up the winner car with a full tank of petrol or pay for one years of satellite television.
Any takers?
I'll be more specific:
I think satellite TV penetration (including Freeview) is about 50% of NZ households.
I think today 10% of new cars are electric in NZ.
So in the year 2040, will there be more satellite TV's than petrol cars in NZ households?
Interesting comparison Ogg. Goes to show how much energy you put into SKT :)
I believe satellite tv will be dead by 2040 or sooner. Elon is already building the Starlink network. And others will soon follow. This will eliminate the need for a physical connection for internet to household.
Similarly, electric or hydrogen which ever may be our future. Gasoline cars may go the cigarettes way. Get extremely expensive to run.
I am only saying satellite TV will die. Not Streaming.
I would be guessing if i had to pick one. Electric cars seemed far, but Elon closed the gap and changed people's perception in a very short time.
C'mon Ogg. Currently, there is no rationale on how some stocks are valued in the market. CBD for example and a few more.
SKT has over 900K paying subscribers. For any company with that sort of subscriptions and to still trade around .15c is just ridiculous.
Other from streaming, Heck for any large multinational this is a huge customer base to do anything with.
If they broke down their satellite customers to show how many of the 585K are streaming with Vodafone TV it would give a much clearer idea as to how long ‘traditional satellite pay tv’ is likely to go on for.
I would think that within 10 years the subscriber numbers will have dropped below the point where it no longer makes economic sense to continue offering the service.
But that is a pure guess - I don’t really have any idea.
Looking forward to Aussie v England cricket Thursday night ....series decider