Actually - quite consistent with my target ;);
The way things are panning out I am not longer sure the 5% discount to 90 day VWAP is going to be any advantage. The other day I did a quick back of the envelope calculation and got an estimated exercise price of approximately $2.92. Unless I missed something from the announcement to the NZX and attached letter bondholders have to make sure their election is with the share registry by 31 August without knowing what the conversion price will be. I think this methodology is fundamentally unfair to bondholders. I also think if someone were brave enough to put up a big bid at $2.92 it is highly likely this would get smashed like every other recent decent sized bid. The fact is the 5% discount thing doesn't confer any advantage if very late in the 90 day VWAP period the SP is tanking like it is.
$2.92 could end up as effectively paying over the odds if this tanks down to $2.80 in the coming week(s). Shares aren't issued upon conversion until 1 October so you're effectively flying blind for over a month from the time you make a decision, (even a hand delivered one to the registry on the afternoon of Thursday 30 August), and you're flying blind on the share price for all that time in terms of what the SP will do based on an unknown conversion price.
Interesting decision for bondholders. I think I would like to know for certain what I am paying for the shares and with the recent bid looking so weak I think this is likely to test the bottom of the range, ($2.80 again). Moosie on another forum put up a good chart suggesting if $2.95 support line gets breeched its grim from there and I note that level was breeched on Friday. I think bondholders who elect to convert to shares are at least 50% chance of getting skunked.
I have come around to thinking a 5% discount isn't enough of a discount for the risks involved, especially with the recent trend in the share price. Momentum is a powerful force. I'm highly likely now to take the cash and any buying I do will be based on a price I set, at a time of my choosing, not a price to be set by someone else at a date of someone else's choosing. Making blind decisions and letting someone else set the price is a process I think is disempowering to bondholders.
Oh dear. Personally am I not convinced that spreading this discussion across various forums is the best way to do it, but I think this post needs some answer.
Just wondering what's happening - did your cold caught the best of you or are you otherwise in a very dark room?
I am not yet convinced that the trend line is broken. Sort of depends what line width you use to draw the support line, but if it stays at $2.94 than I'd see the trend line unbroken - not even a bear trap. Interesting question is - how will the SP develop on Monday. But yes, given the low liquidity of this share and your bleak posts all over the web might it well further drop. One frightened seller might pull it down or one keen buyer might push it up. That's the nature of low liquidity stocks.
So what? Are you looking to buy yourself some very cheap TRA shares or do you question the fundamentals you used to praise yourself. If yes, why?
The way I see it - if the SP keeps dropping than I see very strong support around $2.80 - which is incidentally 5% below the current SP. Hardly a huge enough move to justify all these dark clouds you try to conjure. This is the share market and 5 to 10 % are just normal jitter!
Or do you expect them to do a CBL on us? If yes, why? Whats going on?
All I am saying BP is something is strange when a company does a fancy national roadshow but garners next to no buying support.
I think the big fish are driving this and quite probably nothing you or I would say on any forum will make one iota of difference.
FA is what it is and TA says get out. I made the post for bondholders benefit to help them decide for themselves. FA looks good but sentiment and momentum tell another story.
I don't have a bid in at $2.80 or any other price at present.
Almost over the flu but that has nothing to do with it. I'm not on some new crusade. People can decide what they want to do for themselves, I am simply pointing out there's some concerns for bondholders now and the decision is far from an easy one. I think some bondholders might actually appreciate what I've highlighted as the risks even if you don't mate. Disc: I recently reduced my stake in Turners in anticipation of this bond conversion. Perhaps others are too which might explain the SP tanking ?
Last time when the TRAHA bonds came up for conversion,bond holders took advantage of arbitrage opportunities,and sold shares and converted their bonds into shares.
I expect we are starting to see the same sort of fun and games starting now.
This activity has no bearing on the business of Turners,which continues to grow and improve, no matter what the arbitrages do.
Maybe it will throw up opportunities for long term investors to either buy into TRA, or add to their existing holdings.
A lot of noise can cause loss of concentration,so take care.
Agree with that 100% and went back and had a look at the chart from two years ago. History shows that whenever this company does a capital raise in whatever form including bond conversion, it really affects the SP. For that reason I expect ongoing share price pressure through to potentially as late as the conversion date of 1 October. Brave people might ignore the TA and buy. I am short on brave pills right at the minute but some might argue I need some happy pills :)
Concentrate on the business.
Think about what was said at the presentations.
Did it make sense to you or not.?
Good research means you have no need for brave or happy pills.
Growing dividends means you can spend your money on other things.
I may even use part of my huge HBL divie,due 21st September,to buy a few TRA.?.
Then again I may buy a few more HBL.....Fun times...lol.
I've been adding to my original holding since $3.13 until yesterday, I must admit I never thought it would drop back down to these levels after such a strong report plus the roadshows. My Gutometer says the market is wrong and the current price is nonsense however I'm not buying any more until things settle down. PS-Buying a downtrend is sometimes a very profitable move long term eg HLG.