wont turn around in a hurry. i remember the days of thl at under a $1. was a good buy back then
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I remember selling out at $6.45 in 2018…was a good sell back then
Bought a few for the bottom draw today at 1.86… Quite a different beast today….should go ok when it key revenue markets pick up again…who know where it goes in short term…could be more pain to come
Probably should wait buying until the UK impairment gets finalised
Yes good point on uk impairment but uk one of their smallest revenue segment so don’t think it will impact group too much…thl primarly getting bulk of revenue from Australian and North American markets now with nz then uk and the manufacturing plant…happy to take small holding now and wait
Im not worried about good will write down, non-cash so doesnt matter. I would be worried about another downgrade.... too early for me I think.
Like Leemsip, I am worried about another downgrade, these things are not in isolation.
Having said that, just dipped my toes in and bought 5k at $1.78 as an initial entry point.
My concern is that management do not have great internal practices and their forecasting abilities are rather suspect. 30 odd percent downgrade out of nowhere?
Are they meeting continuous disclosure obligations or are there internal processes that flawed?
Conversely, the lowest the SP reached during covid was about $1.80 so if anything, and if the business is a going concern long term, this may be a good entry price.
I have been corrected on the above assumption that the lowest price during covid was $1.80. Closing price low was about $1.15 and the intraday low was $0.55.
Other point is, will we see an exodus of the big fundies loosing faith here?
Takes these guys a while to get a recommendation together and through the decision makers. Maybe later this week see a further downturn.
No hurry IMO. I will wait to see some more carnage.
Good post Winner. We had a uni professor on sabbatical from the USA come teach us our 3rd year finance paper in the winter/spring of 1997 and he was a merger and acquisition specialist. I remember the term synergy being used a lot. All about Beta's and how merging 2 companies might affect that etc. Synergy seemed to be a good thing though.
I will see if I can read that book you recommend. Sounds very informative. I wonder if there is a psychological reason for synergies being over valued?
the big question indeed. when will revenue pick up again ? cost of living crisis not ending soon , rv sales are like jet ski sales and look at the massive debt levels on falling revenue :scared: no wonder going to the bank. have to agree with others downgrade possible again later this yr
During COVID the tourism industry rental fleets were sold down. Additionally, during covid many rental companies went into liquidation (or some merged) so the number of operators shrunk. Coming out of COVID there was a mad rush from tourists to jump in a campervan/motor home and have a post covid holiday. This meant there was a mad rush by the rental fleet owners to gear back up. The preferred cab chassis manufacturers like Mercedes couldnt keep up with demand so the likes of THL had to take some units from Iveco which are not as reliable as the Merc's or preferred by the rental customer.
THL issues today are only ex fleet sales not the rental side. How long will it take for the sales to recover? Will the rental side come in for some demand decline? I am not sure but that FY26 $100m npat has to be seriously questioned..
Getting a few in opening rush not good idea after all
Will need to average down and hope like hell it’ll come right