Yup, been holding my AUD since I started this thread back in December 2013... LOL
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I try not take too much notice with TA forward projections ...but if FAers can do it with forward PE's and earnings..then so can TAers..
Usually both FA and TA forward analysis come to grief at some point and the blame falls on the so-called "unexpected" events whereas the blame should really fall on the analyst doing the unreliable things with their disciplines... whether its TA or FA it doesn't matter..
But I can't resist myself.....
Why?....
1..The 25 year chart shows the NZ$ v A$ as in a cyclical currency relationship
2..The cyclical oscillation is near symmetrical...implying that if NZ/Ausralia relationships remain similar as they have done in the past, the future prediction should be very reliable.
3..The classic Head and Shoulder pattern is the most reliable of all chart patterns.
4...Past Head and shoulder patterns have worked and their predicted target points were accurate enough..
As I'm a believer that a high currency shows a better economy.. then that assumption + the chart below suggests the NZ economic future performance will be below that of it's Aussi Neighbor for the next 4 years...So the greener pastures will once again be over the ditch...
As an NZ investor the chart implies that my Equity portfolio should contain a decreasing NZ exposure..Any Multi Currency Trading account money could be better off in Aussi cash rather than NZ cash...
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2014032016.png
Great work Hoop.... will also be putting more funds into AUD ...2020 be a great time to bring the funds back to NZD....if all goes to plan with my ASX picks I'm hoping it will be a good amount
Hoops - interesting you should do some predicting, esp taking a currency chart and extrapolating a possible outcome to foretell how 2 economies are going to do
Lets see how this turns out eh - "As I'm a believer that a high currency shows a better economy.. then that assumption + the chart below suggests the NZ economic future performance will be below that of it's Aussi Neighbor for the next 4 years...So the greener pastures will once again be over the ditch..."
Interesting TA v FA
I think NZ will still have stronger growth than Aust - ie NZ$ will recover ........but if the Chinese start building big time again and want more iron than a tumble in the nz$ v au$ is likely (your head and shoulders pattern playing out)
I agree with Hoop. NZD not only could drop against AUD but also against majority of currencies which include USD. Despite some depreciation still AUD and NZD are two of the most overvalued currencies in the world.
In the short run there could be some support for both AUD and NZD while having volatility. However, as we haven’t seen strong phase Of USD yet we can expect further fall in currencies such as AUD and NZD most probably during second half of 2016 and in 2017/18. I expect bigger fall in both AUD and NZD in 2017/18.
In addition, I believe just like Euro we should see single currency in New Zealand and Australia as well. This will eliminate not only fluctuation risks and exchange costs but also will lead to closer co-operation between two countries.
Some of the benefits of the single currency are:
- Greater security and more opportunities for businesses and markets
- Improved economic stability and growth
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
I always laugh when I see the pair quoted this way, who are all these people?
NZD remains vulnerable to a fall in risk appetite.
http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-...bullish-183333
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/busine...-2016-analysts
New Zealand dollar to slide in 2016 - analysts
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
NZD looking good
Aussie inflation surprisly down so punters expect a rate cut over the Tasman
Wheeler being brave and not bowing to the wishes of the bank commentators might mean no more OCR cuts and softening the boom bust cycle he has created
So likely stronger NZD v AUD next few months
RBA has cut so going to keep the pressure on the cross and RBNZ .....
http://www.investordaily.com.au/mark...m_medium=email
Over 95 cents now - not surprising seeing economy on fire
Parity - not likely but heck it could remain at these sort of levels for a while
good time to invest in oz shares?
The reasonable but not spectacular GDF number this morning gave the nzd a decent boost
Going well isn't it