Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare boss (Mike Daniell) says
strong kiwi may be here to stay and not part of cycle...manufacturers should view the strong New Zealand dollar as the "new normal" rather than a challenge that will eventually go away.
Its different this time......Yeah right...
It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.
Yes this high dollar will probably not go away in the short term or medium term...but, it is because a
long term cycle view tells you that the US$/NZ$ is in a downtrending part of the oscillation cycle. This oscillation has a very long wave length which fools people into believing NZ$ will continue to stay high.
Another market with a very long wave length is the NZ property market.
I have trouble finding NZ data and charts,,so apologies as I'm not the greatest spreadsheet user...below is a crude chart from my spreadsheet from which I typed in the data from the Reserve Bank of NZ site.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...e1972-2011.png