Originally Posted by
blobbles
Ha haa, yes, well. Besides the mathematical problems of basing guesses on flawed methodology and flawed assumptions... actually the whole idea is too flawed to start with. But I will play your game. WARNING: The following contains a lot of guesses, I haven't done enough research yet. Can anyone tell me ATM's revenue per LITRE?
How do you define "success" in any of the markets? Is success grabbing the same market share as in Australia and anything worse considered failure? Because I can tell you, if you grabbed 1% of the UK market, 0.5% of the Chinese market (in fresh milk/UHT/Baby Powder) and 0.5% of the US fresh milk market... they would probably have ~$600m in revenue from just those markets. Not sure I would consider that failure!
The above is based on:
1% of the UK market and you are looking at 50m L per year (based on milk consumption of 1.5L per week per person, 64m people) = ~$100m revenue
0.5% of the Chinese market probably represents 135m L per year (based on 0.4L per week per person, 1.3b people) = ~$250m revenue
0.5% of the US market probably represents 125m L per year (based on 1.5L per week per person, 318m people) = ~$250m revenue
(By the way, this is by volume, it assumes ATM currently have ~3% of the Aus milk market BY VOLUME, and are receiving $2 per litre)
If you can get only a little bit of market share in these countries you can make a LOT of money. And with a lot of rich people in all of these countries willing to pay a premium for a healthier product... well...
These figures approximate with others?
Anyway, say you are using your flawed methodology, 600m * ~40% probability = 240m revenue. Plus Aus = ~$390 revenue?
What happens if they replicate Australia in the UK though? 3% of the market by volume would represent $300m in revenue in just one market. Jeez.