Probably all in my imagination. Should get back to doing some real work for a change.
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Probably all in my imagination. Should get back to doing some real work for a change.
I need to let this go, but was intrigued to see whether Beagle had identified some correlation between OCA SP daily changes and the daily Covid cases.
So a re-look at the data from a different perspective shows that the SP damage was done before NZ covid cases started ramping up, and the cumulative OCA SP changes rose throughout the climb in covid cases and has continued after the cases declined and flatlined through to today.
That's looks like a classic market panic sell off on the global news of an epidemic/pandemic, then a slow realisation that NZ and OCA isn't as affected as the panic suggested and a relentless climb back to pre-covid SP levels. Wow, congrats to whomever bought the sub .40 and sub .50 SP, heck even the sub IPO and sub-NTA were and are great buying.
Had OCA succumbed to a local infection the figures might be much worse, but it hasn't, so I see the covid status quo as an eventual recovery to pre-covid SP and a realignment with OCA fundamental values and future prospects.
Check this out.
Attachment 11738
Attachment 11735
BaaBaa ...snowie says use log scale
Ha ha, true he does say that, but this isn't a SP chart, it's a simple time based study of cumulative SP changes against number of daily covid cases. Log scale .. hmm, I'll send you the data and see what you come up with?
I think I've done enough, it shows that emotion smashed the SP before NZ experienced local covid cases, then recovered despite local covid cases and continues to recover.
What's your take on it, do you see a correlation or just a market doing its thing? Seems to me that OCA SP is disconnected from NZ actual covid cases.
ARV DIV " Our intention is to maintain our dividend policy with a payout ratio of 50% to 70% of underlying profit. Wewould hope there would be further clarity on the future economic environment when we report on thehalf year results in November.”
what is the policy for OCA?
50-60% of annual underlying profit (source - see page 3 of their first annual report under the heading shareholder returns) http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...591/262296.pdf
.
Thank you MR B!
Arvida took $5 m hit extra expy from the covid. $2m from government n extra $3m from the company.
Property prices .
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...roperty-market
DISC: Im not a property investor except for a few shares. The commentator says its pointless statistical data. I get the sense that this event is a very rare one and statistics arnt telling me much except there are people who havnt changed there intended behaviours. They are investing at a time of extreme shock or is this telling us that the events havnt had a behavioural changing effect on a large number of the property investing people who live in new zealand.
Hope ARV, OCA and all other RV operators have their audit files ready to demonstrate that they had a reasonable basis for expecting their revenue to fall by at least 30% when they claimed the Government wage subsidy. I’m not aware that incurring additional costs due to COVID-19 disruptions to a business has any relevance to the eligibility criteria. Government will surely be active with their reviews of claims in the aged care sector.
But those sort of headlines are good for the Oceania shareprice
Positive stories (even if meaningless stats) = property going well = more confident punters = let’s buy some retirement sector shares
It’s all about confidence
Awesome King1212,Can you let me know where you got that info. That`s exactly what I`ve been looking for, hopefully it also indicates the time frame the $3m cost covers as ARV`s annual result only covers the early few weeks of level 4.
Thanks Beagle for your recent post`s suggestions of extra covid expenses but there are still too many missing parts to be useful such as GOVT extra funding and cost actual of PPE etc.
On a different tangent, its interesting just how much the market dislikes OCA. When comparing with other listed RVs it still languishes buy a country mile.
The share price changes of all operators when compared to a pretty stable time a year ago are as follows.
ARV +7%
MET+21%
RYM 0%
SUM+16%
OCA-12%
OCA was pretty out of favour a year ago so its REALLY out of favour now. The upcoming result better be a real shocker to deserve this much disparagement. The market has this one way wrong.
See Slide 9 ...the costs related to April to June (after financial year end) and something about back to normal now
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...717/325770.pdf
I don't think it is about dislike OCA.
Overall...many bought when it collapsed to 40c...now cashing in.
Give it a week or two...will be back to $1.
Covid scared is easing up..that will help the sentiment
OCA's care as a percentage of its business model is much higher than Arvida's and OCA reports for the period ended 31 May 2020 which encapsulates the full period of the lockdown and its effects in March, April and May, before we emerged from lockdown in early June. Importantly care suites were deemed an essential service throughout the lockdown.
Taking into account both direct costs and lost profit from inability to sell independent living units, I remain comfortable with my earlier assessment of overall effect $10-15m and nothing in the Arvida analysis has surprised me or caused me to amend my best guess. Importantly we did emerge to level 2 lockdown late in May which will have enabled some independent units to settle before balance date. What I have not accounted for is the slowdown in construction caused by Covid 19.
I remain very cautious about expectations regarding this years underlying profit but its this very thing of a high percentage of care that fills me with so much enthusiasm for the long run as they build heaps more care suites and they churn them every 2-3 years there is such excellent potential for profit growth down the track. This is a long term investment and my caution is those hoping for a quick buck could find themselves frustrated in the short term.
Disc: Holding long term for yield that will grow nicely over the long run.