Buffett likes them. I'm nervous about climate volatility meaning they dont get the premiums correct. But oops, off topic. Hey Hi Ryman! hows that price/nta ratio up there?
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Hi Vaygor1,
Yes absolutely it would be great to have a good chance to chew the fat with you mate as I missed having a good yack with you at the last meeting. I was down one end or the other of the long table and you were in the middle, never mind it looked like you enjoyed yourself and others enjoyed themselves very much too. Can't see any reason we shouldn't have a Sept get together, give other Auckland ST folks and us a good chance to chew the fact on 30 June results announced in August.
Chart starting to look ugly.
See previous comments on this thread and many comments on SUM thread. I believe SUM and to some extent MET are considerably better value than RYM and have better medium term prospects for profit growth ARV also fully priced in my opinion.
The charts of both SUM and MET look fine whereas as you point out RYM has had a clear break down through its 100 day moving average and is looking very weak from a TA perspective and you know what I think from a fundamental perspective. Many others are copying a lot of RYM's systems, fixed fee for life for example and others are learning fast how to develop their properties and make highly satisfactory development margins with further scope for improvement.
RYM no longer deserve any PE premium with little or no scope to improve their already well perfected operational and development systems. Two more years in the wilderness for RYM shareholders eating nothing but 1.5% unimputed dividends and unless you bought them very cheaply you can hardly feed a sparrow on that dividend yield.
I think the market is just a little cautious of the property market at the moment. There is now 2440 Properties in Auckland City listed for sale on Trademe up almost 15% from the start of the year. Regardless of your business model when you own billions of dollars worth of property your value will drop when property valuations drops.
Long term of course this sector will do great.
In this mornings Herald an article discussing JLL's Retirement Village Database White Paper. The actual paper can be found at the bottom of the article.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11823962
I have kept an eye on this ongoing report (updated once or twice per year) which gives good insite to industry build rates, age demographics, industry trends etc. and comments on the large operators with stats on market share etc.
I note the range of comments from various contributors regarding the share price over the past few years and possible trends over at least the next couple. I am reminded of a Buffet saying in regard to markets "in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long-term a weighing machine" Clearly the Ryman share price had got ahead of its increase in valuation metrics with a doubling of price back in 2013, so the valuation had definitely become "stretched" at that time. As long as Ryman (and others such as Summerset) continue to deliver record results, the share price will be "weighed" accordingly by the market .