The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 16 October 2009-
http://i33.tinypic.com/b5l6qq.jpgapproaching Major Resistance where the 2007 Bear Market Trendline meets the 50% Fibbonacci level
...Earnings Guide before Market Open -data point 19 October 2009-
Hasbro HAS (first call)0.93 (year ago)0.89
...Earnings Guide after Market Close -data point 19 October 2009-
Apple AAPL (first call)1.42 (year ago)1.26
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 18 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 16 October 2009-
http://i35.tinypic.com/14aiuk0.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i37.tinypic.com/ef2mw.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i35.tinypic.com/4ggsgo.jpghttp://i38.tinypic.com/nbx5pt.jpg NYSE Momentum and Strength (close-up)
US Economic Calendar -data point 19 October 2009-
NAHB reported its homebulider sentiment index dipped to 18 in October, from 19 in September; the index had been improving since early in the year
Bond Market -data point 19 October 2009-
12:58 ET 10-Yr: +01/32..3.408%.. USD/JPY: 90.6950.. EUR/USD: 1.4948 Backed Off: Trade is sleepily sliding in quiet trade into midday with the 3-7-yrs seeing the widest swings since the Fed's denial that their talks with dealers on slowing accommodation meant anything at all. The market got some short coverage but little more on the non-news while curve trades were swung flatter but rebounded fairly easily. The quiet trade has seen a lot of churning back and forth after that initial pop and with little new information to go on and a light calendar on the week, the market is eyeballing stocks. Trade was also getting some bounce from backlash over the Baron's cover story asking if it was rate hike time, which added some drag to prices heading into the day. The 10-yr could get caught in a 3.9% to 3.425% range without some incentive while the curve will push back at the 242.5 level with the 2-10-yr yield spread now 243.5. Supply coming online has been concentrated in the shorter maturities helping add some drag while global bonds remained mixed to lower. The dollar got hit as the index is sniffing around for last week's 75.21 low as rates are seen on hold. The euro has pulled back to near the day's best levels, but may lack the impetus to punch through Thursday's 1.4968 high, while likely to get stuck near 135.50 yen per. The yen continues to skate around the 90.50 to 91.00 area and will also be caught in a information-vacuum without something more interesting than earnings and generic Fed-speak. Vice Kohn has a late engagement (16:30).
Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 19 October 2009-
...with a Close above the Oct 12 Peak *1079 Friday, the SPX 500 successfully defended support and is trading higher based on continued earnings optimism
…as mantioned last Friday, as long as trading action stays above *1079 through to a Close, chances are still in play, the market will challenge the May-July-August Highs trendline resistance *1097/*1100 barrier over the next couple of days
...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, trading below the 50-day MA at *1033 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway
Current Market Comments:
David Rosenberg (Gluskin/Sheff) ...The Unsustainable Revenue-Less Recovery > To date, an amazing 78% of the S&P 500 companies have thus far beaten consensus estimates. Then again, maybe this is less amazing than meets the eye since the consensus of street analysts have taken such a knife to their estimates that Q3 operating EPS is seen declining 25% from what were already depressed recession profits of a year ago. The WSJ ran with an article stating that because companies are being rewarded by the marketplace to such a great extent for beating their EPS estimates via relentless cost-cutting moves, executives are saying that “they are hesitant to reinvest such profits into their businesses.” This strategy is being deployed by so many firms that it is having a broad based dampening impact on private aggregate demand and hence corporate revenues — enticing firms to take even more costs out of the system; either pricing power/revenues improve, and there was certainly no sign of this in the just-released National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey, or the $80+ of earnings currently embedded in equity market valuation will have to be revisited, revised and reduced. It will be at that point — and the timing is next to impossible, but it is a “when”, not an “if” — that the stock market embarks on its true corrective phase.
Invetrics Market Commentary ...noticed consistent profit taking action every time a company reported strong earnings last week, e.g., Alcoa (AA: 14.04 -2.23%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 184.37 -2.26%), and IBM (IBM: 121.64 -4.95%). Several ETFs representing major stock market sectors and International markets switched to Short last Friday; if (and only if) the theme of selling the good earnings reports continues next week, we may see the market move lower from here. This will become a certainty if one of the well known high tech companies misses its expected earnings
Guy M Lerner (Technical Take) ...In a market driven by Dollar devaluation and "liquidity" this is what I would expect: there will be sudden down drafts that should be scooped up rather quickly as long as investor sentiment remains as bullish as it has been.
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards